Futures trading is done by two main parties, one of which is the hedger and the other one is the speculator. Where a speculator is there to trade for either their own accounts or that of their clients, a hedger always uses futures as a possible protection from losses. Hedgers can also be described as individuals or business owners who are more risk averse. Speculators and hedgers are likely to benefit from futures trading if the trader has a strong ability to analyze the markets and understands that future behavior. Though futures can behigh risk, they offer an equally high return and are thus very tempting.
In case you are new to futures trading you need to understand how things work. We at Cannon Trading are there to help with your understanding of all the elements of futures trading and also counsel and advise you with the same. Our knowledge base featured on our website, is a store house of information. In order to know every aspect of futures trading, you must read through these articles that have been listed in this category archive. Go through it and get better informed!
Are we done? Was this the correction everyone was afraid of and that’s it?
Only the future can tell but interesting to look at the daily chart below of the mini SP 500. We bounced OVER 100 points from the lows!!! But I still need to see if we can break above the 1946 level marked on the chart….
Another interesting point is that this rally is on much lower volume than the sell off, but then again this has been the story in the “minor corrections” we had during the last several years.
Not sure if this one is any different and we are heading back to test new highs…my “emotions/gut” says this one has a bigger chance of being a more serious correction than the ones we have seen before but my “trading brain” says that statistically odds are in favor of resumption in the rally…
TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: The Correction That Wasn’t
From Our Friends at: www.TradeTheNews.comMarket volatility reached epic levels this week. By Wednesday afternoon, the S&P500 had given up than 4% on the week after a series of unfortunate events hammered risk assets, drove liquidation and raised fear the dreaded correction had arrived. However most of the gap was filled in the second half of the week as the soothing possibility of more central bank easing emerged. On Wednesday, the withdrawal of Ireland’s exotic tax avoidance laws, which inspired AbbVie to cancel its $54 billion merger with Shire, slammed many US hedge funds that were long Shire in an arbitrage trade. The same day, talk that the Greek anti-euro, anti-bailout opposition had strengthened its influence drove a massive sell-off in European peripheral debt, further hurting many US hedge funds that were long the instruments. On top of that the Ebola scare reached a fever pitch with false alarms across the US, though only one additional case was confirmed. The combined effect was risk asset liquidation, driving the VIX index above 30 for the first time in nearly two years. Commenting on Wednesday’s market action, Goldman Sachs’ CFO said investors were “shooting first and asking questions later.” Then on Thursday, the ECB said it would adjust haircuts on bonds used as collateral for loans to Greek banks and Fed Governor Bullard said the FOMC should consider delaying the end of the QE taper this month to help stem the slide in inflation expectations. Both announcements helped propel a move higher, aided by some better US data late in the week and a round of mostly solid earnings reports. Continue reading “Monday Futures Market Recap, Economic Reports & Levels 10.21.2014”
I may sound like a broken record but make sure you are adapting to the different market conditions we are seeing compare to a month ago or so.
Much higher volatility, speed of price change and wider ranges.
I wrote the following outlook for ForexMagnates.com and sharing it with you as well, again it is just one man’s opinion….mine:
Did AliBaba Mark Stock Market Highs??
Many people have commented about the stock market run of the last few years, its widely perceived “Quantitative Easing” connection, and much more. Some of these people are smarter and more knowledgeable than me when it comes to economics but then again, sometimes the stock market does not react to economics, intuitive correlations, or “brains” but does what it wants to do…..
If you were one of the bulls who bought any significant correction in the past 5-6 years you would have done well, as QE just fueled the stock market into new highs.
To me the big question is: Does this represent the highs for the next few years?
Statistically the right answer is no. There is a higher probability that stocks will recover and make new highs than the chance that this may be the high for the next few months/ few years.
However, in my opinion, there is a much larger room for profits on the downside than there is going long at these levels, especially considering that the FED is unwinding QE.
Today’s action in stock indices was quite impressive! The volatility we are now seeing is so different than what we witnessed 2 months ago it’s almost like we are trading a completely different market!
We had almost a 50 point range on the SP today!! Much different than the 8-12 points range we saw couple months back….This calls for you as a trader to adjust, researched and be aware of the market conditions you are trading in.
The market is moving much faster. I was watching the DOM today off and on and the speed of the moves was extreme.
When volatility expands I have the following tips:
Reduce trading size
Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 1925.00 with a stop at 1919.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 1919.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example.
Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
Another two markets I like to touch on when it comes to “other markets to daytrade beside the mini SP 500” are Crude Oil Futures and Gold futures.
More than a few similarities between the two markets.
They are both volatile, can move VERY fast. I have seen some very large moves happen in matter of minutes if not seconds. The “fear & greed” factor really plays a role in these specific two markets.
Both have active trading hours starting with Far East trading around 10 PM est all the way to the next morning until about 3 PM est. Good volume generally speaking but not close to the mini SP or ten year notes. So you may see some slippage on stops but the volume is more than enough to trade size.
Each tick on gold is $10, so every dollar move =$100 against you or in your favor. Crude is similar, each tick = $10. One full $1 move = $1000.
True to my Monday tradition, I am sharing some of the news/ factors affecting the markets this week:TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Markets Shake Off Ebola, Hong Kong Flu, and ECB’s Dubious Prescription
The contrast between US economic strength and Europe’s deflationary headache got even stronger this week. On Thursday, ECB President Draghi outlined his asset purchase plan but left investors with the impression that the program would be too little to beat deflation. Draghi said the ECB’s balance sheet would grow back toward €3 trillion compared to near €2 trillion today, suggesting that the potential universe of covered bond and ABS purchases is up to €1 trillion. Meanwhile, the September non-farm payrolls was +248K complemented by a combined 69K in upward revisions to July and August data. The unemployment rate declined from 6.1% in August to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008. The only sour notes were that wage growth was still pretty weak and labor force participation slipped lower. In China, the Occupy Central protest movement took over downtown Hong Kong, driving big sequential declines on the Hang Seng early in the week. The bourse closed for two days of holidays, fell 2% in early trading on Friday and then closed higher. There are real fears that Beijing will not tolerate much more unrest in the city. For the week, the DJIA slipped 0.6%, the S&P500 lost 0.8% and the Nasdaq fell 0.8%. Continue reading “Market News, Futures Level & Economic Reports 10.07.2014”
We started a trial for a new squawk box service here at Cannon and I must say I was impressed enough to share with you an example of the wrap up email I received as well as a link to their services:
Time sure does tick a bit different in the commodities and futures world….
Some traders know time has passed quickly when it is time to change to the Dec. contract versus the Sept. contract, others may notice it when they think “wow, monthly unemployment is this Friday, time sure flies…” and still other traders, perhaps professionals and money managers notice it when one month ends and another starts and it is time to share monthly results with their clients…..
Either way you look at it, hope October will be a great trading month!
Today I noticed a couple of market behaviors I have noticed in the past and wanted to share with you.
The first is us Bonds trading behavior on the last trading day of the month on the last 15 minutes of the old pit session, i.e. 13:45 to 14:00 central time.
While I did not spend any time trying to predict the direction of the move, I seen it many times, the bonds will make a 10-15 ticks ( 15 tick in bonds = $500 per contract) move during the last 15 minutes as large traders position themselves ahead of months close.
Below is a 15 minute chart of Bonds from today….notice the very tight range all day long until the last 15 minutes….if you go back to the last trading day of the month, you will notice this pattern more often than not. Of course, I leave the important work to you…and that is which way and how can one try to take advantage of it….PS: My trade system below missed entering the short by 1 tick )-:
Custom USA – 30Yr US Treasury Bonds (Globex), Equalized Active 15Min Continuation
The second pattern for you to investigate if interested is the behavior of crude oil futures around “round numbers”. Today was obviously a HUGE move in crude ( down over $3 or $3000 per contract or 3.5%) but notice the 10 seconds chart I am sharing with ( yes, seconds, not minutes…) of what happened when crude broke below 93.00 and 92.00 today…..Once again, the million dollar question, how and can you take advantage of it? Obviously in this case it seems like there were MANY sell stops placed right below the round numbers which resulted in another accelerated move to the down side.
There will be no commentary today. Thank you and good trading!
GOOD TRADING !
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time. Past performance is not indicative to future results.
FOMC day provided the volatility expected. I speculate that we will see more volatility tomorrow as well.
In addition we got the vote in Scotland that can affect the British Pound as well as some other currencies. My outlook for the pound is available here.
On a different note, I am sharing with you a screen shot of my mini Russell chart. 18 ticks range bar chart along with my DIAMOND ALGO, which works better when there is two sided action like we seen the last couple of days versus when we have a strong trending day.
The DIAMOND ALGO tries to predict turning points in the market.
TFEZ4 – Russell 2000 Index Mini, Dex. 14 : Range Bar, 18 Tick Units
Would you like to have access to my DIAMOND and TOPAZ ALGOs as shown above and be able to apply for any market and any time frame on your own PC ? You can now have a three weeks free trial where I enable the ALGO along with few studies for your own sierra/ ATcharts OR CQG Q Trader.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
