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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday January 31, 2014
Hello Traders,
For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!
Each market has different personality, different behavior along with different times of the day when it is most active. If you are finding that the ES is not giving you enough risk/opportunities then start monitoring a couple of other markets and perhaps explore them in demo / simulated mode.
I will try over the next few blogs to shed some light on other markets i think are suitable for day-trading along with what is unique about these markets, personality and most active trading hours.
Today I am going to start with interest rates, mostly the ten year and 30 year.
In most platforms, the symbols are ZB for 30 year bonds and ZN for 10 year notes. The current front month is March which is U. So ZBH4 for example.
| Product Symbol | ZB |
| Contract Size | The unit of trading shall be U.S. Treasury Bonds having a face value at maturity of one hundred thousand dollars ($100,000) or multiples thereof |
| Price Quotation | Points ($1,000) and 1/32 of a point. For example, 134-16 represents 134 16/32. Par is on the basis of 100 points. |
| Product Symbol | ZN |
| Underlying Unit | One U.S. Treasury note having a face value at maturity of $100,000. |
| Deliverable Grades | U.S. Treasury notes with a remaining term to maturity of at least six and a half years, but not more than 10 years, from the first day of the delivery month. The invoice price equals the futures settlement price times a conversion factor, plus accrued interest. The conversion factor is the price of the delivered note ($1 par value) to yield 6 percent. |
| Price Quote | Points ($1,000) and halves of 1/32 of a point. For example, 126-16 represents 126 16/32 and 126-165 represents 126 16.5/32. Par is on the basis of 100 points. |
| Tick Size (minimum fluctuation) |
One-half of one thirty-second (1/32) of one point ($15.625, rounded up to the nearest cent per contract), except for intermonth spreads, where the minimum price fluctuation shall be one-quarter of one thirty-second of one point ($7.8125 per contract). |
| Contract Months | The first five consecutive contracts in the March, June, September, and December quarterly cycle. |
These contracts are often affected by many of the economic reports that come out at 8:30 Am Eastern and there is very active volume between the hours of 8 am EST and 3 PM EST
Volume on both contracts is very good. Ten years will often have 1 million contracts traded per day ( might be the second most active US futures market after the mini SP 500) and the bonds will avg. around 300,000 contracts.
These markets can experience very volatile movements during and right after different reports but then will often trade smooth or in an intraday trend the rest of the day.
Another BONUS for trading these two markets is that the exchange fees are lower, hence making your total transaction cost cheaper!
Follow these two markets in demo mode for a while if you have not traded them before and get a feel for the movement, reaction to reports, execution etc.
If you have any questions, feel free to contact me.
Below is a 60 minute chart of the US bond market or what i refer to as the 30 year bonds ZBH4. The dollar value difference per one contract between the high and the low marked on the chart is: $1661.50 per one contract.
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GOOD TRADING
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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| Contract March 2014 | SP500 (big & Mini) | Nasdaq100 (big & Mini) | Dow Jones (big & Mini) | Mini Russell | Dollar Index |
| Resistance 3 | 1823.08 | 3615.42 | 16033 | 1168.90 | 82.03 |
| Resistance 2 | 1808.42 | 3576.33 | 15939 | 1155.80 | 81.64 |
| Resistance 1 | 1797.08 | 3549.17 | 15853 | 1144.30 | 81.42 |
| Pivot | 1782.42 | 3510.08 | 15759 | 1131.20 | 81.03 |
| Support 1 | 1771.08 | 3482.92 | 15673 | 1119.70 | 80.81 |
| Support 2 | 1756.42 | 3443.83 | 15579 | 1106.60 | 80.42 |
| Support 3 | 1745.08 | 3416.67 | 15493 | 1095.10 | 80.20 |
| Contract | Feb. Gold | Mar. Silver | March Crude Oil | Mar. Bonds | Mar. Euro |
| Resistance 3 | 1291.7 | 2035.7 | 99.82 | 134 14/32 | 1.3749 |
| Resistance 2 | 1279.8 | 2004.3 | 99.21 | 134 1/32 | 1.3707 |
| Resistance 1 | 1261.4 | 1959.7 | 98.56 | 133 20/32 | 1.3628 |
| Pivot | 1249.5 | 1928.3 | 97.95 | 133 7/32 | 1.3586 |
| Support 1 | 1231.1 | 1883.7 | 97.30 | 132 26/32 | 1.3507 |
| Support 2 | 1219.2 | 1852.3 | 96.69 | 132 13/32 | 1.3465 |
| Support 3 | 1200.8 | 1807.7 | 96.04 | 132 | 1.3386 |
| Contract | March Corn | March Wheat | March Beans | March SoyMeal | March bean Oil |
| Resistance 3 | 439.4 | 556.5 | 1311.00 | 444.23 | 37.39 |
| Resistance 2 | 436.8 | 555.5 | 1298.00 | 437.07 | 37.30 |
| Resistance 1 | 435.2 | 554.5 | 1286.50 | 431.13 | 37.19 |
| Pivot | 432.6 | 553.5 | 1273.50 | 423.97 | 37.10 |
| Support 1 | 430.9 | 552.5 | 1262.0 | 418.0 | 37.0 |
| Support 2 | 428.3 | 551.5 | 1249.00 | 410.87 | 36.90 |
| Support 3 | 426.7 | 550.5 | 1237.50 | 404.93 | 36.79 |
source:http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)
| Date | 3:42pm | Currency | Impact | Detail | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Graph | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FriJan 31 | 2:00am | EUR | German Retail Sales m/m | 0.2% | 1.5% | ||||
| 2:45am | EUR | French Consumer Spending m/m | -0.2% | 1.4% | |||||
| 4:00am | EUR | Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate | 12.7% | 12.7% | |||||
| 5:00am | EUR | CPI Flash Estimate y/y | 0.9% | 0.8% | |||||
| EUR | Unemployment Rate | 12.1% | 12.1% | ||||||
| 8:30am | USD | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.1% | 0.1% | |||||
| USD | Employment Cost Index q/q | 0.4% | 0.4% | ||||||
| USD | Personal Spending m/m | 0.2% | 0.5% | ||||||
| USD | Personal Income m/m | 0.2% | 0.2% | ||||||
| 9:45am | USD | Chicago PMI | 59.8 | 59.1 | |||||
| 9:55am | USD | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 81.1 | 80.4 | |||||
| USD | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | 3.0% | |||||||
| 1:15pm | USD | FOMC Member Fisher Speaks |
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.