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Short-Term Options in Commodities: Potential Benefits and Applications Part 2
By Adila McHich CMEGroup.com
Short-terms options are flexible tools for tactical trading strategies to mitigate specific event risks or make a directional bet on price movement in the short term. The trading volume of these types of options in commodities has grown tremendously in recent years because they appeal to different types of traders regardless of their time horizon or thesis. This article, which is Part 2 of a two-part series explains the macro and idiosyncratic (commodity-specific) market events and their applications using short-term options in commodities.
Commodity prices are determined based on a confluence of macro and idiosyncratic factors. As such, commodity price fluctuations are largely driven by fundamental (supply/demand) and cyclical factors (macro) tied to the business cycle and the economic activity, in addition to other exogenous market events such as geopolitical risk and weather events. These various factors can sometimes morph into a jump risk (tail risk), especially if the market event is significant enough and unanticipated. The short duration of these options offers more flexibility to target a specific market event.
Examples of economic data releases:
- ISM manufacturing index
- Central bank announcements
- GDP growth
- Unemployment rate
- Consumer Price Index, Producer Price Index
- Consumer confidence, etc.
Example 1: Using Crude Oil Weekly options for directional trade on the ISM
A trader expects oil prices to rise in response to the release of the ISM Manufacturing index which measures the activity of the manufacturing sector. This leading indicator is important and closely watched by the market because it is used as a proxy for the overall state of the U.S. economy. A level of 50 and above reflects economic expansion while below 50 signals a contraction. The ISM tends to move in tandem with oil prices in the long run as the result of their linkage from the demand side. Chart 1 depicts the intertwined relationship between ISM index and price changes of oil. The YoY oil prices changes are used to remove the cyclicality variations. An increase in ISM indicates a rise in manufacturing activity that requires more oil as input which would consequently lead to an increase in oil demand and prices. Additionally, this long-term linkage gives insight into the underlying momentum of the economy and oil markets and their projected trajectories. Though, this relationship can sometimes be decoupled in the short term due to other factors that affect oil prices such supply shocks (OPEC meeting, geopolitical event etc.)
Chart 1: Strong relationship between the ISM and Crude Oil
Daily Levels for February 16th, 2024
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.