Risk with Trading | Support and Resistance Levels

Jump to a section in this post:
1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – March Corn, March Wheat, Jan Beans, March Silver
5.Economic Report for February 8, 2012

1. Market Commentary

Hello traders,

Another up day on LOW VOLUME…..

Not much to share as far as market view so another educational piece for your reading pleasure below:

RISK

It is a four letter word. As traders it is something that we thrive on and dread. We chase and fear. We look for and look to avoid. It is RISK. Without it, there is no opportunity for profit. Without it trading lacks potential. With it, failure and heartache are the consequences when it is abused.
Risk itself is not a bad thing. When it is misused by traders, it becomes a problem. Controlled risk presents traders with exciting and profitable opportunities. Uncontrolled, it brings the end to the dreams and careers of many traders.
How should we as traders confront risk? The first step is to respect it. Realize the damage it can do to our account equities when it is abused. The two most important tools that we have to control risk are stops and position size. Oh, I know, you hate stops. We all do. We have all been stopped out at the high or low only to see the market immediately move in the direction that we thought it would. But without using stops on every trade that we enter, disaster will eventually prevail. I have a love/hate relationship with my stop orders. I hate to place them, but love how they save me from large, unacceptable account crushing losses. It is the same for all successful traders. Those foolish enough to trade without stop protection are risking disaster on every trade. Unless you as a trader have developed perfect discipline to exit a losing trade quickly, and according to your pre-entry criteria, stops are mandatory. And admit it, at least to yourself…..do you have perfect discipline? I think not.
The other critical element in controlling risk is position size. By this I mean the percentage of your equity that you are risking per trade. I do not risk more than 3.5% of my equity on any trade. Some traders are comfortable risking 5% of their equity. This amount for me is an amount of risk with which I am comfortable. It allows for aggressive trading, and it allows me to stay in the game ( financially and psychologically) even after a series of losses. This aspect of strategy building is often forgotten by the novice trader. These folks have dreams of “the big hit” or the monster trade that allows their account equity to soar to heights unimagined by mere mortals. The problem is, oops, what if you are wrong? This type of trading/thinking is out of control. It leads to broken dreams and short careers. You must always remember that this is a highly volatile, sophisticated business. Treat it as such. If you want to gamble, jump on an airplane and visit Las Vegas.
The futures markets are highly leveraged, as we all know. Those traders that abuse risk by not respecting its power will eventually join the long list of former futures traders. Risk must be treated like a beautiful, intelligent woman. Treated with respect, wonderful things can happen. But, abuse it, or disrespect it, and suffer the consequences.
As a futures trader you have to embrace taking risk. Understand its impact. Respect it. Stay in control of it. Develop a trading method that makes risk an asset to your account instead of an enemy of your account. Risk/reward analysis is an important part of our everyday lives. Can I make it thru the intersection before the light turns red? Do I need to re-apply my sunscreen? Should I have one more beer before driving home? In trading, always keep in mind your risk versus the reward. A 50% gain in your account is not equal to a 50% loss of equity. A 50% winning trade puts you up by one half. But a 50% loss means that you have to double your equity to get back to your starting point. Respect your risk levels. Trade only using a risk level that you, personally, are comfortable with.
Rome wasn’t built in a day. Neither will your account be built in a day, or a week. Respect risk. Enjoy it’s benefits and may your trading in 2012 will produce profits and satisfaction. Enjoy the ride.

2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000

Contract (Dec. 2011) SP500
(big & Mini)
Nasdaq100
(big & Mini)
Dow Jones
(big & Mini)
Mini Russell
Resistance Level 3 1363.33 2560.17 12988 840.63
Resistance Level 2 1354.52 2547.33 12919 835.17
Resistance Level 1 1349.63 2537.67 12876 831.23
Pivot Point 1340.82 2524.83 12807 825.77
Support Level 1 1335.93 2515.17 12764 821.83
Support Level 2 1327.12 2502.33 12695 816.37
Support Level 3 1322.23 2492.67 12652 812.43

Continue reading “Risk with Trading | Support and Resistance Levels”

3 Main Types of Trading Days | Support and Resistance Levels

Jump to a section in this post:
1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – March Corn, March Wheat, Jan Beans, March Silver
5.Economic Report for February 7, 2012

1. Market Commentary

Hello traders,

Thin volume in many markets today with SP500 pretty much closing unchanged.

Tomorrow should bring a different trading environment as we have a more than a few reports scheduled.

Here are some notes about the main types of trading days as I see it:

My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.

1. Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators such as RSI and &R.
2. Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using pull backs from the main trend to re-enter with the direction of the trend.
DMI and ADX are good studies to use for this type of trading days.
3. Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at FIB retracement levels and order flow.

Good question is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session ( primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open)
Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
low volume during first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)

2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000

Contract (Dec. 2011) SP500
(big & Mini)
Nasdaq100
(big & Mini)
Dow Jones
(big & Mini)
Mini Russell
Resistance Level 3 1348.00 2540.92 12833 836.10
Resistance Level 2 1344.15 2532.83 12810 832.50
Resistance Level 1 1341.70 2527.67 12797 829.00
Pivot Point 1337.85 2519.58 12774 825.40
Support Level 1 1335.40 2514.42 12761 821.90
Support Level 2 1331.55 2506.33 12738 818.30
Support Level 3 1329.10 2501.17 12725 814.80

Continue reading “3 Main Types of Trading Days | Support and Resistance Levels”

Tuesday Morning Support and Resistance Numbers

Here’s a morning cup o’ joe for all you futures traders, our morning support and resistance levels. Good trading!

divider black 190

Support and Resistance Levels – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones, Mini Russell 2000, 30-Year US Bond, 10-Year US Note

Contract (Dec. 2011) Mini S&P 500 Mini Nasdaq 100 Dow Jones Mini Russell 2000 30-Year US Bond 10-Year US Note
Resistance Level 3——————————————Resistance Level 2——————————————

Resistance Level 1

——————————————

Support Level 1

——————————————

Support Level 2

——————————————

Support Level 3

13541343.5 

1342

 

1330.75

 

1324.75

 

1313.75

2562.52548.5 

2533

 

2507

 

2493

 

2469

1290712849 

12833

 

12743

 

12696

 

12612

860.00843.4 

832

 

820.2

 

814.9

 

802.70

1432714314 

14300

 

14216

 

14206

 

14123

13131.513126.5 

13118

 

13111.5

 

13102.5

 

13025

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