The first trading day of June 2015 was a wild ride in many markets….almost as if the markets were quite confused on the direction for the month and traded very choppy with “unexplained, fast moves” both ways. I saw this in stock index futures, metals, currencies and even the grain sector…
As traders we need to learn how to adapt quickly, sense what type of trading day is developing in front of us and trade accordingly.
I wrote the following a while back and shared it before but worth sharing again as refresher:
In my opinion there are 3 main types of trading days.
1. The most common day are two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.
2. Strong trending days, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.
3. Slow and/or choppy trading days – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.
Time sure does tick a bit different in the commodities and futures world….
Some traders know time has passed quickly when it is time to change to the Sept. contract versus the June contract ( like we are doing with BONDS right now), others may notice it when they think “wow, monthly unemployment is next Friday, time sure flies…” and still other traders, perhaps professionals and money managers notice it when one month ends and another starts and it is time to share monthly results with their clients…..
Either way you look at it, hope June will be a great trading month!
Today I want to share a couple of market behaviors with you, I have noticed in the past.
The first is US Bonds trading behavior on the last trading day of the month on the last 15 minutes of the old pit session, i.e. 13:45 to 14:00 central time.
While I did not spend any time trying to predict the direction of the move, I seen it many times, the bonds will make a 10-15 ticks ( 15 tick in bonds = $500 per contract) move during the last 15 minutes as large traders position themselves ahead of months close.
I just wrote this one for forexmagnates.com yesterday and wanted to share with you.
Silver Futures at the Crossroads
After a long period of declining prices we finally saw a significant bounce on silver futures over these past couple of weeks. The question I ask myself is: Is this a good place to sell, is this just a bounce/short covering and the trend lower will resume?
OR
Is this rally a beginning of a breakout to the upside and trend reversal?
Only time will provide the correct answer but until then I think the following two strategies are worth looking at:
1. Sell futures right around the $17 level and place a stop on the short along with another stop to go long if market breaks above $17.30 (see chart below).
2. Sell call option premium on rallies and sell put option premium on sell offs as we take the assumption that the market will be trading between $16 and $18 for the next few weeks. Selling premium is a dangerous strategy with unlimited risk.
As I don’t see any major changes in the fundamental picture for silver, I like to use the chart and technical studies in an attempt to come up with a good risk-reward trade.
In hindsight it always looks easier…ECB announces QE – “We should have known it was going up….” In reality the market was very jittery to start the cash session with some very sharp moves lower before it started running up and up….
I think that when this is all said and done, one day down the road, the end result will NOT be pretty for global markets but until then we need to trade what there is and not what we think should be…..
My medium term outlook on Silver Futures as featured in ForexMagnates.com available at:
ECB decision and verbiage in regards to Euro Zone QE will move the markets early tomorrow morning ( 7:30 AM central time). Be aware and be ready.
We got a sneak preview today when some reports came out in regards to this matter.
VOLATILITY is the keyword today and the last few weeks.
Personally I think this market has been harder to trade.
Do your homework. Review the charts over different time frames.
Do you need to adjust entry techniques? Do you need to use LESS leverage? Perhaps your stops needs to be adjusted based on volatility?
i am just throwing some ideas out there to help you think, research and hopefully implement and adapt to what I consider a different market for day trading than we have seen for most of 2014.
In between I am sharing with you my Crude Oil 18 tick range bar chart from today with some good and some not so good signals for your review:
CLE – Crude Light (Globex), Equalized Active Continuation : Range Bar, 18 Tick Units
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and be able to apply for any market and any time frame on your own PC ? You can now have a three weeks free trial where the ALGO is enabled along with few studies for your own sierra/ ATcharts. The trial comes with a 23 page PDF booklet which explains the concepts, risks and methodology in more details.
Swiss franc made a huge move today as Swiss officials decided to detach the Swiss rate from the Euro currency….This was probably the biggest one day move I have witnessed in any commodity/futures market percent wise in my 17 years as a broker ( at the high today it was up approx. 25%, closed up 17%!!!)…..
Monthly chart below for general knowledge below…
SF6 – Swiss Franc (Globex), Monthly Continuation
And repeating yesterday’s words below as today was even a crazier day than any so far…..
VOLATILITY is the keyword today and the last few weeks.
Personally I think this market has been harder to trade.
Do your homework. Review the charts over different time frames.
Do you need to adjust entry techniques? Do you need to use LESS leverage? Perhaps your stops needs to be adjusted based on volatility?
i am just throwing some ideas out there to help you think, research and hopefully implement and adapt to what I consider a different market for day trading than we have seen for most of 2014.
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Very volatile day in stock index futures and energy markets along with grains and a few others….
30 minutes ago I was planning to write on how today’s action may be a bearish signal but then stocks rebounded to close near the unchanged level and lead me to believe that we still need to see a decision day/point where either the bulls or the bears take the market sharply higher/ lower….
Mini Russell 2000 daily chart for your review. My opinion is that the Russell been some what of a leader in the volatile moves we have seen.
Wide range today and I am tempted to say, I would be on the sidelines waiting to see if we can break above 1200 or below 1162 before having a directional bias for the short-medium term.
TFE – Russell 2000 Index Mini, Equalized Active Daily Continuation (Delayed by 10 Mins.) : Heikin-Ashi
Global equity markets were racked with volatility this week, as competing economic themes vied for dominance. Monday and Tuesday were dominated by concerns about the increasing risk of European deflation and the euro zone potentially unraveling over a renewed Greek crisis. The risk on tone was restored on Wednesday as Chancellor Merkel gave assurances that Germany wants Greece to stay in the euro. Mid-week sentiment was also helped by an Obama Administration announcement that the FHA would dramatically cut its mortgage insurance premiums in hopes of kick-starting the still anemic housing market. Fed policy minutes reinforced the stance of “patience,” while the new slate of dovish FOMC voters flexed their wings, highlighted by Chicago Fed President Evans who proclaimed that raising rates before 2016 would be a “catastrophe.” By Friday, deflation fears were setting in again, as Brent crude hit fresh 5-year lows and the US jobs data showed that last month’s signs of nascent wage inflation had evaporated. The US 10-year yield retreating back below 2% signaled increased investor anxiety as the week drew to a close. The DJIA notched five straight triple digit moves and for the week fell 0.5%, while the S&P500 dipped 0.6% and the Nasdaq lost 0.5%.
The headline US jobs data showed better than expected payroll gains and another tick down in unemployment to 5.6%, but dissection of the report focused chiefly on the disheartening hourly earnings component. The very healthy November gain in wages was cut in half by revisions (to +0.2% from the preliminary +0.4%), and December hourly earnings were -0.2% m/m. The data pulled the y/y growth rate to its lowest level in more than two years (+1.7%). Note that the Fed is on record with its desire to see wage growth accelerate to +3% y/y to help it achieve its 2% inflation target.
The FOMC minutes out on Wednesday confirmed that if the labor market continues to heal, then the Fed is likely to raise rates in the middle of the year even as they remain “patient” on hikes for now. Many analysts say higher rates are likely to happen even if there is little progress on inflation. The WSJ’s Hilsenrath argued that a case is to be made that lower long-term yields may even push the Fed to hike sooner, given they could be a sign of global funds flowing into the US economy and away from anemic overseas markets, potentially inflating various asset bubbles.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
