In the last few weeks we witnessed “volatile trading” with high volume and some wild swings. Much different than the quiet days we had about a year ago…. which encouraged me to share the following with you on the different types of trading days:
In my opinion there are 3 main types of trading days.
1. The most common day are two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.
2. Strong trending days, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.
3. Slow and/or choppy trading days – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.
Today I must share an observation that may help many of you. So many times as a broker I see clients who know how to make money… I see it in the daily statements, good winning %, consistent profits UNTIL….something happens. Either the client who is normally a day-trader decides to carry his/hers losing position and make it into a swing trade…..OR the trader is down and refuses to accept the fact it may be a losing day and decides to double down and get more aggressive because if this trade is a winner he will have another winning day….the examples go on and no I am not referring to anyone specific although many of you probably think I am talking about them.
I have done it before as a trader. It is the inability to accept a loss that creates this snow ball.
I am not a psychologist nor a professional writer ( English is my second language if you did not tell by now (-:
What I am hoping for is that by writing this I may help the “good voice” inside your head that tells you DONT double down OR just keep the stop, win over that bad voice that is whispering to you to go ahead and reverse the position and double it when it is clearly not in your game plan…Trading is tough mentally, financially and emotionally, help yourself be a better trader by being a more disciplined trader.
“A treatise to Demo Traders”, on behalf of Commodities brokers everywhere.
By Cannon Trading Commodities Broker
Demo Trading. Also known as simulated trading, paper trading, playing with Monopoly money; whatever you’d like to call it, a demo can be your best friend or your worst enemy. Every Futures broker dreads having this conversation with their clients, as it is necessary with every new trader; however, much to a broker’s chagrin, every new trader will say that they already understand when in fact they rarely do. Let me assure you, if you’re a new or even intermediate trader, you probably don’t. You may understand one popular issue of the conversation but odds are if you have been paper trading for five years waiting to be “successful” or to “understand the futures markets” in the simulated world before moving on, you have less of a chance of being successful in the live futures markets because you’re setting yourself up for failure (if you ever do, in fact, trade in the live markets). You should seriously consider speaking with a licensed commodities and futures broker before diving in.
For the uninitiated, demo trading is the practice of trying out an online trading platform on a simulated basis-in a free demo trading account, you’re granted simulated funds, you’re placing simulated orders in the markets and you’re shown simulated profits and losses on what your trades might have done for you if you were futures trading on a live platform with live funds. First and foremost, it’s a wonderful technological tool for testing out a platform to see if it will suit your trading methodology. It can also be used to try different trading strategies, but problems arise when one equates simulated trading too much with live futures trading.
The first trading day of June 2015 was a wild ride in many markets….almost as if the markets were quite confused on the direction for the month and traded very choppy with “unexplained, fast moves” both ways. I saw this in stock index futures, metals, currencies and even the grain sector…
As traders we need to learn how to adapt quickly, sense what type of trading day is developing in front of us and trade accordingly.
I wrote the following a while back and shared it before but worth sharing again as refresher:
In my opinion there are 3 main types of trading days.
1. The most common day are two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought/oversold indicators.
2. Strong trending days, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.
3. Slow and/or choppy trading days – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.
The first is what I call the “trend is your friend”. A trader looks at few different time frames, looking to see if there is an established trend on longer time frame ( example 60 minutes chart) and then trying to look for pull back on lower time frames and “join the trend”. Only works for certain markets and only works few times of the month as most days markets do not have an intraday trend in my opinion.
Second method is what we call break out. Traders will look for markets that have been in a lower volatility situation using indicators such as ADX for example. Then they will look at the chart to find what they feel are levels that if broken can fuel a stronger move in the same direction. These levels can be extracted visually looking at the chart or using highs/ lows of X periods. This method works better on some markets than others. I noticed that crude oil and gold futures tend to have better chances of a continued breakout move than the mini SP 500 for example.
I thought the following information is very interesting and might actually be useful for traders mostly for swing and day-trading. The chart/link below will provide you with the % correlation between different markets for the past 180 days!
MRCI’s Inter-Market Correlations(prev 180 trading days) – Mar 12, 2015
ECB decision and verbiage in regards to Euro Zone QE will move the markets early tomorrow morning ( 7:30 AM central time). Be aware and be ready.
We got a sneak preview today when some reports came out in regards to this matter.
VOLATILITY is the keyword today and the last few weeks.
Personally I think this market has been harder to trade.
Do your homework. Review the charts over different time frames.
Do you need to adjust entry techniques? Do you need to use LESS leverage? Perhaps your stops needs to be adjusted based on volatility?
i am just throwing some ideas out there to help you think, research and hopefully implement and adapt to what I consider a different market for day trading than we have seen for most of 2014.
In between I am sharing with you my Crude Oil 18 tick range bar chart from today with some good and some not so good signals for your review:
CLE – Crude Light (Globex), Equalized Active Continuation : Range Bar, 18 Tick Units
Would you like to have access to the DIAMOND and TOPAZ and 5T ALGOs as shown above
and be able to apply for any market and any time frame on your own PC ? You can now have a three weeks free trial where the ALGO is enabled along with few studies for your own sierra/ ATcharts. The trial comes with a 23 page PDF booklet which explains the concepts, risks and methodology in more details.
Swiss franc made a huge move today as Swiss officials decided to detach the Swiss rate from the Euro currency….This was probably the biggest one day move I have witnessed in any commodity/futures market percent wise in my 17 years as a broker ( at the high today it was up approx. 25%, closed up 17%!!!)…..
Monthly chart below for general knowledge below…
SF6 – Swiss Franc (Globex), Monthly Continuation
And repeating yesterday’s words below as today was even a crazier day than any so far…..
VOLATILITY is the keyword today and the last few weeks.
Personally I think this market has been harder to trade.
Do your homework. Review the charts over different time frames.
Do you need to adjust entry techniques? Do you need to use LESS leverage? Perhaps your stops needs to be adjusted based on volatility?
i am just throwing some ideas out there to help you think, research and hopefully implement and adapt to what I consider a different market for day trading than we have seen for most of 2014.
Our blog is nominated for the STAR award once again!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
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