Economic Reports & Futures Levels 12.18.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday December 18, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Our blog is nominated for the STAR award once again!

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And the volatility continues…..between FOMC, craziness in crude many of the commodity markets experienced some extreme volatility these past few weeks….

Be careful. These are different market conditions and high volatility may require you to adjust your stops based on volatility, may require you to adjust your entry techniques and in general will require you to do some home work, look at previous periods of similar volatility and adjust your trading accordingly.

This may be a “stupid example” but will serve the purpose:

If 2 months ago you were trading the mini SP and 3 point stop was sufficient for your method and entries, I can almost say with 99% confidence that it will not work during this period of volatility as the market can move 3 points in 15 seconds and take you out very quickly just to go back to where you thought it would.

Do your homework. Trading is NOT easy to say the least and markets evolve and change all the time. Markets also go from periods of lower volatility to higher volatility etc.

If I can be of help – let me know and best of trading to everyone.

Continue reading “Economic Reports & Futures Levels 12.18.2014”

Economic Reports & Futures Levels 12.17.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday December 17, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Our blog is nominated for the STAR award once again!

Trader Planet Competition
Trader Planet

Please vote for our blog at:

www.traderplanet.com/l/qYd

Once there, scroll to the blog category and select

Daily Futures Trading Levels and Insight  as your first place and submit at bottom of the page!

The FOMC interest rate decision is due at 14:00 ET in the US tomorrow ( Wednesday, Dec. 17th ).

FOMC days have different characteristics than other trading days. If you have traded for a while, check your trading notes from past FOMC days that may help you prepare for tomorrow.

if you are a newcomer, take a more conservative approach and make sure you understand that the news can really move the market.

The following are suggestions on trading during FOMC days:

  • Reduce trading size
  • Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
  • Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 1965.00 with a stop at 1959.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 1959.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example.
  • Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
  • Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
  • Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
  • Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
  • This is another great example why a trading journal would be an asset, as you can go back and check your notes from previous FOMC days.
  • Be patient and be disciplined

Continue reading “Economic Reports & Futures Levels 12.17.2014”

Economic Reports and Futures Levels 12.16.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday December 16, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Our blog is nominated for the STAR award once again!

Trader Planet Competition
Trader Planet

Please vote for our blog at:

www.traderplanet.com/l/qYd

Once there, scroll to the blog category and select

Daily Futures Trading Levels and Insight  as your first place and submit at bottom of the page!

WOW…December is turning out to be an extremely volatile month so far!

Much on the heels of the wild sell off in Crude Oil but nonetheless….

Quick update on some of the news behind the price action below:

TradeTheNews.com Weekly Market Update: Risk Off Resurfaces

Volatility made a big comeback this week as the S&P500 index saw its first weekly loss in two months and the crude meltdown showed no signs of letting up. After two solid months of declining oil prices, the more than 10% drop in WTI futures this week, from $65 to below $58/barrel, finally triggered some significant risk-off behavior over deflation concerns. Most market watchers continue to tout the economic benefits of lower oil prices, but the speed of the decline has become unsettling. The jittery market largely ignored more strong US economic data, including excellent November retail sales and a 7-year high in the University of Michigan confidence reading, and gave more weight to ugly European industrial production and CPI data. In China, the November CPI and PPI inflation readings were concerning, with CPI hitting a five-year low, while additional economic and political reports cemented the expectation that China will reduce its official growth target for 2015. The DJIA had its worst week since late 2011, dropping 3.7%, while the S&P500 fell 3.5% and the Nasdaq lost 2.7%.

US Treasury yields have seen a notable contraction this week. On Friday, the 30-year UST ended around 2.74%, the lowest weekly close since the end of 2012. The yield on the 10-year UST fell as low as 2.09% (Recall that during the height of the Ebola angst in mid-October, the 10-year and 30-year yields briefly dipped as low as 1.86% and 2.67%, respectively). Spreads have narrowed as short-dated yields climbed in preparation for Fed tightening, further flattening out the yield curve.

Continue reading “Economic Reports and Futures Levels 12.16.2014”

Futures Levels & Economic Reports 12-12-2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday June 13, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

FRONT MONTH for stock index futures is now March 2015 (H5).

Make sure you are trading the March 2015 contract (H5).

Our blog is nominated for the STAR award once again!

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Please vote for our blog at:

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Once there, scroll to the blog category and select

Daily Futures Trading Levels and Insight  as your first place and submit at bottom of the page!

I did an analysis of the major indices for equities.com along with charts and levels to watch over the next few days/weeks.

Visit:

http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/economy-markets/looking-at-stock-index-futures-for-clues-as-2014-comes-to-a-close

Continue reading “Futures Levels & Economic Reports 12-12-2014”

Futures Levels and Economic Reports 2.26.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday February 26, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Range bound, directionless trading today in stock index futures. Markets are pushing against all time highs and it will be interesting to see what kind of action we get.

So in hindsight, today’s trading environment was suitable for buying support, selling resistance. Trying to scalp the ranges as there was no real volatility or break out. Today’s action encouraged me to share a quick paragraph I wrote about the different types of trading days:

  •  My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.

1. Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought /oversold indicators.

2. Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend

3. Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.

  •  Good question is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
    1. Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session ( primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open)
    2. Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
    3. The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
    4. If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
    5. low volume during first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)

Continue reading “Futures Levels and Economic Reports 2.26.2014”