What type of trading day am I facing? 5.25.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday May 25, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!  

Strong trend day today on both indices going up and gold going down, prompts me to share a piece I have shared in the past about recognizing the different type of trading days (both markets above experienced type 2 trading day today):

  • My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.
    1. Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought /oversold indicators.
    2. Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend
    3. Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in. Many times, no trading is better than bad trading during these type of trading days….
  • Good question is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
    1. Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session ( primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open)
    2. Mondays have the highest chance for trending days
    3. The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
    4. If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
    5. low volume during first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day)

Trading Levels for Tuesday, May 24th

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday May 24, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog! 

 Quiet day to start the week ahead of memorial Day Weekend coming up.

More choppy action then any trend or breakout trades to be honest and volume seems to be lighter.

A couple of trading systems we offer on auto trading have been doing well recently and you can see latest trades and statistics here.

FOMC Minutes Produce Fireworks 5.19.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday May 19, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog! 

FOMC minutes produced quite a bit of fireworks in bonds, metals and stock indices!

One must know when certain reports come out, do homework as to prior experience/ market behavior ( look at your trading journal? notes?) and be ready.

I looked at prior FOMC and the related FOMC minutes for 2  markets I was trading today, gold and bonds in an attempt to make an educated speculation….today it worked, there are many days it doesn’t but at least i did my homework and stuck to my game plan.

Plan your trade, trade your plan!

Backtest, Forward Test, Live Trading – iSystems 5.18.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday May 18, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!

Backtest, Forward Test, Live Trading

Eureka! You’ve just found the holy grail of market indicators. The indicator of indicators which over the past few days has perfectly called each 30 minute top and low in the e-mini S&P futures… Now what?  Time to put some real money on the thing and retire to the islands…. Not so fast!

Your strategy may be looking good over the past few days, or even months or years. But to really get comfortable with it, wouldn’t you rather know how it has done over many, many years. And once you’ve done that, wouldn’t you rather see it work for a period of time on the current market before putting real money to work.

If you answered yes to either of those, welcome to the world of trading systems – because backtesting and forward testing are two of the biggest advantages of trading systems. The ability to see what would have happened, and what is happening – BEFORE putting real money to work.  And then, the kicker… tracking your live account versus the trading system to see how you’re doing with that live money once you’re ready to take that next step.

Backtesting

Becktesting is just what it sounds like. Observing how a system would have performed going ‘back’ in the past, using historical prices to see when a system would have gotten in and gotten out, bought and sold, been stopped out, and so forth. By running the system backwards in time, an investor can compile all the different trades and calculate how much the system would have made and lost month by month, year by year – and from there calculate the statistics such as annual return and maximum drawdown and volatility and so forth we all use to gauge a model’s abilities. On the iSystems platform, every model, every model is backtested as far back as possible, ranging from 2001 to 2007, and shows in the equity curve graph and monthly perf table with a white background.

Continue reading “Backtest, Forward Test, Live Trading – iSystems 5.18.2016”

Futures Day Trading Tips 5.17.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday May 17, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!

Survivor Day Trading

This article was published by the Stocks, Futures, & Options Magazine in September, 2007 and was written by our VP, Ilan Levy-Mayer. We think this article is timeless and whether you are beginner or advanced trader, you will enjoy it.

Perhaps the greatest luxury I have in this business is the ability to observe the experiences of many traders with different personalities, life schedules and risk capital, each trading in a variety of markets.

What most astute brokers realize is that, over time, as some individuals prematurely exit winners while others desperately cling to losers, Day trading is by definition a trade that is initiated and completed during the same trading day. In this wide category, you will find many types of traders. On one end of the spectrum are scalpers, who go for one or two ticks of profit several times a day in trades lasting just seconds. On the other side are speculators who stay in a position from the start of the day until the close. One of the main appeals of day trading for all types is that the trader goes home flat without having to worry about positions. When the market closes, the day is done. Money management, as the name implies, is applying prudent principles to help conserve your trade (risk) capital. Without risk capital to trade, a speculator does not have a chance to succeed.

Continue reading “Futures Day Trading Tips 5.17.2016”

Learn to Recognize Charts & Patterns to Trade Futures 5.13.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday May 13, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!

Greetings! 

 Before Your next Trade, learn to recognize charts and patterns!

Learning the different types of charts and patterns will be another arsenal in your Trading Tools! Ascending Triangle Futures Trading Chart Pattern
ascending triangle

What is an Ascending Triangle Futures Chart Pattern?

An ascending triangle is a bullish futures pattern that can indicate a breakout in the upwards direction.

How do I Recognize an Ascending Triangle Futures Chart Pattern?

An ascending triangle is formed when resistance remains flat and support rises.

See the example below:

ascending triangle

What Does a Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern Mean?

View the rest

Thirty Year Bonds Looking for a Correction Towards the 156-158 Area 5.11.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday May 11, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!

Greetings!

Thirty Year Bonds Looking for a Correction Towards the 156-158 Area

Ilan Levy-Mayer | Friday, 06 May 2016 12:16 (EST)

I am looking for US Treasury bonds, also known as the 30 year bonds to correct down to 156-158 area. I am thinking that tomorrow’s monthly unemployment report may trigger this correction, or it may take a little longer or maybe not happen at all – BUT my chart seems to think there is a good possibility of a correction.

Notice the weekly chart below and the correction we had last year between February and July. I think the market right now is a on a possible break lower and a similar correction in price towards the support levels of 156-158 area.

Read  the rest….

Webinar this Wednesday!

Order Flow – Keeping it Simple, Practical & Effective

Wednesday May 11, 2016 1:00 PM PDT :

Register here Space is Limited

Join us for a 60 -minute webinar this Wednesday May 11th at 3:00 P.M., Central Time.trans

Continue reading “Thirty Year Bonds Looking for a Correction Towards the 156-158 Area 5.11.2016”

Bond Futures Outlook 5.03.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday May 3, 2016

Hello Traders,

For 2016 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

Voted #1 futures trading blog!

Greetings!

May started with some of the European markets closed or abbreviated due to “May Day”. Nice up move on stocks and nice down move on bonds/ 10 years.  I mentioned this before on how I like bonds and 10 years as another market to observe and day trade.  It has a different personality and behaves quite differently than stock index futures ( many times inverse correlation), energy or metal futures.

Interest Rates, 10 year and 30 year.

In most platforms, the symbols are ZB for 30 year bonds and ZN for 10 year notes. The current front month is June which is M. So ZBM6 for example.

Product Symbol ZB
Contract Size The unit of trading shall be U.S. Treasury Bonds having a face value at maturity of one hundred thousand dollars ($100,000) or multiples thereof
Price Quotation
Points ($1,000) and 1/32 of a point. For example, 134-16 represents 134 16/32. Par is on the basis of 100 points.
 
Product Symbol ZN