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The Week Ahead: And 2023 is almost over…..
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
The December 18th week is the second to last before the week between Christmas and New Years.
It may be hard to find much to get markets excited about now that the final FOMC meeting of 2023 is out of the way.
Confidence is high that the Fed is done raising rates in this cycle, which makes the economic outlook more certain and one which includes rate cuts sooner or later. Most of the data from this point forward is probably backward looking, This weeks GDP is the final iteration from the BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis for Q3 after a knock the barn door off 2nd revision last month increase of 5.2 percent. We will see early Thursday morning if the second iteration was correct.
Because the housing numbers this week are also backward looking, the data will be reflective of a time period where the mortgage rates had been at their highest levels in over 25 years. Mortgage rates have come down a few shades since the late summer and fall peaks of over 7 1/2%. As of this writing, the 30-year fixed can be had for under 7 through some outlets for the most credit worthy home buyers.
Housing starts, Existing home sales and New home sales, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The probability of a .25 point fed funds ease for the Fed’s March meeting is currently @ 63.4 % per the CME’s Fedwatch tool. The FOMC has a January meeting scheduled, but no February event.
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12-19-2023
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