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Author: Ilan

Future Spreads & Futures Levels & Economic Reports 11.20.2013

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday November 20, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Trading Futures Spreads

“A basic and important strategy for commodities traders using spread trading.”

By: Mark O’Brien, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker

 

Over my 20+ year career as a commodities broker, I have studied and traded a wide range of approaches to trading the futures markets.  From candlestick formations to the commodity channel index, from condors to turtle trading, there’s an enormous catalog of tools and methods available for traders to consider.

One method I have noticed is surprisingly underrepresented among retail traders is futures spread trading, where a single position in the market consists of the simultaneous purchase of one futures contract and sale of a related futures contract as a unit. I call it surprising because some of the most invested players in futures trading – and arguably the most sophisticated – include large speculators and commercial firms who regularly employ spreads. This includes traders in the markets who often actually buy and sell the physical commodities we trade. Farmers, ranchers and other food growers along with food producers, petroleum companies who either drill for oil or natural gas or refine these products – or both, financial institutions with enormous holdings in treasuries, equities or currencies, mining interests and their buyers – all these areas of production and distribution employ spreads from time to time as an important aspect of their businesses.  Indeed, spread trading is a fundamental and essential part of the commodities futures markets.

At the same time, despite the remarkable increase in interest and in the growth in the volume of the futures markets over the years, spread trading is typically dismissed by most other traders in search of a trading strategy. With so much attention focused on other approaches related to straightforward directional trading (and within that category, day-trading) it’s not difficult to see how spread trading can be overlooked.

READ THE FULL ARTICLE

Futures Trading Reminders & Trading Levels & Economic Reports 11.19.2013

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday November 19, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

A few “post it” to put around your trading station/ trading area:

  1.  Not one trade or one trading day will determine your success. It is the next 1000 trades. ( make sure you survive to take the next 1000 trades!)
  2. What separate the pros from the amateurs is the ability to accept losses, anticipate losses and know it is part of trading. most traders can do well when they are up or making money, very few can do it when they have a down day.
  3. Once you see you are down $XXX, you need to switch from offense to defense and start exiting positions and managing the trade NOT by adding positions.
  4. You are day trading but your progress is measured over the long run.
  5. Start writing a journal about the different reports and how the market reacted so you know which reports to avoid. This can also be a good way to evaluate yourself from the mental perspective as well as function as “cheat cheat notes” for the future.
  6. Start looking at trading as a business. Train your brain to look at trading from the outside rather that ” I am doing good or I am trading bad” everyone have losing days, its part of the market. Sometimes you can make all the right decisions and still be down.
  7. Set some goals: for each day, for each week, for each month. They should include profit target as well as maximum amount of $$ you are willing to risk on any given day. You are more successful if you hit loss limit, closed positions out than if you had a good day where you hit your target.

Futures Trading Levels & Economic Reports for November 15, 2013

Posted on by Ilan

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday November 15, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Learn to lose….

 

Many different factors go into trading.  Too many to discuss efficiently in one blog post. Some relate to trading techniques, other to money management, mental aspect, risk capital and much more.

But one that sticks in my eyes is the ability to take a loss. I see many clients who can make money and have days where they make money but when they lose, they lose much more, sometimes even losing control and losing a big portion of their account.

I am not sure how a trader can embed this into their trading mind, BUT in my opinion if you train your brain to expect losses, understand losses and losing days will happen, you will increase your chances of surviving in this business, which in return will actually give you a chance to succeed….

Losses are part of trading and as long as your losses are part of the plan and are quantified in advance and you can adhere to your rules, then you have a chance. I think it’s easy when traders are winning…making money etc. Much harder when you lose or down. your brain starts playing tricks on you…it tells you to double down, maybe reverse even though your analysis does not say so….all of a sudden you start pulling trades out of instinct, fear rather than a calculated plan that has solid risk/ reward. If a trader learns how to lose, to accept losses, to have realistic expectations, then he/ she can avoid having one of those terrible days when traders can lose almost of all their account.

 

I went into this subject and detailed day-trading money management in an article I wrote a few years back for SFO magazine.

 

You can read the full article at:  https://www.cannontrading.com/community/newsletter/Survivor-Day-Trading-Different-Day-Trading-Money-Management-Modified-Hours-E-Minis#two

New Highs for S&P, Futures Levels & Economic Reports 11.14.2013

Posted on by Ilan

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday November 14, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

 

New highs on the SP500…..

 

I have drawn the extensions in the chart below last week…will be interesting to see if price respects those levels or not…I guess we can find out as early as tomorrow….

EP - E-Mini S&P 500, Equalized Active Daily Continuation
EP – E-Mini S&P 500, Equalized Active Daily Continuation

 

On a different note:

  • My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.

 

  1. Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for using support and resistance levels along with overbought /oversold indicators.
  2. Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using ADX, MACD crossovers and pretty much looking for pullbacks to jump on the trend.
  3. Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by looking at volume spikes, using stochastics as possible entry signals and usually wait for a pullback before jumping in.

 

  • Good question is how can one asses what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading….I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email but here are some initial observations:
    1. Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances for similar trading day during the primary session ( primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open).
    2. Mondays have the highest chance for trending days.
    3. The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
    4. If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
    5. low volume during first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day).

Continue reading “New Highs for S&P, Futures Levels & Economic Reports 11.14.2013”

Gold Daily & Trading Levels & Economic Reports 11.13.2013

Posted on by Ilan

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday November 13, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Gold and Silver took a hit today, selling off 1% and 2.5% respectively.

Gold and silver are much different markets in my opinion than mini SP or us tbonds for example. Gold, silver and crude oil for that matter are quite volatile with fear and greed playing a bigger role than in other markets. I have seen these markets make some very large moves intraday at times.

I do think that both gold and crude oil are GOOD markets to observe as potential for day-trading as long as you use stops…if you are a trader that “uses mental stops” , these markets are not for you…Good news is that both crude and gold have a mini contract .

Gold chart for your review below with some possible levels to watch for:

GCE - Gold (Globex), Equalized Active Daily Continuation
GCE – Gold (Globex), Equalized Active Daily Continuation

Continue reading “Gold Daily & Trading Levels & Economic Reports 11.13.2013”

Futures Trading Levels & Economic Reports for 11.12.2013

Posted on by Ilan

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Like us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterView our profile on LinkedInFind us on Google+Cannon Trading Futures Trading Resistance & Support Levels and Economic ReportsFind us on Yelp

1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Tuesday November 12, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Extremely quiet day in the markets with US banks closed in observance of Veteran’s day.

I expect volume and volatility to return tomorrow. I guess it is always easier to look back and have hindsight in your favor …. but traders coming into today should have noted a few things:

  • Bank Holiday
  • Lighter volume
  • Inability of the market to break overnight highs/lows

 

The conclusions could have been:

  • Trade lightly or avoid trading
  • Understanding there is a high chance for range bound market ( sell close to previous session highs, buy close to previous session lows)
  • and/or look at other markets, perhaps crude oil, perhaps soybeans etc.

 

Again, much easier for me to say so right now when the market about to close but maybe the thought process will help you the next time.

PS: Here is another advantage of writing a trading journal. Next time we have a bank holiday, your notes may come in handy.

Continue reading “Futures Trading Levels & Economic Reports for 11.12.2013”

Real Time Trade Alerts & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.08.2013

Posted on by Ilan

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday November 8, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

BIG DAY tomorrow. Many reports including monthly unemployment figures. Be ready for higher volatility.

To continue on what i wrote yesterday regarding volume / range charts and using overbought / oversold indicators, below you will see 36 ticks range bar chart of gold futures from today’s session. The example below is of a good day for the model ( two sided trading ranges with volatility) and there are bad days just as well ( strong, one sided trend days).

 

Gold Futures
Gold Futures Trading Chart

 

The charts are sierra charts and the signals that appear are based on proprietary indicators developed by Ilan Levy-Mayer of LEVEX Capital Mgmt Inc. and VP of Cannon Trading Co, Inc.

The concept is a simple concept that looks for exhaustion in either buying/ selling and reversal. The signals that appear on the charts are alerting you for potential buy or sell IF/ONCE price confirmation occurred (crossing of the hull moving average). Full explanation along with chart samples included in the 23 page PDF booklets that comes with the free trial.

Would you like to have access to the DIAMOND and TOPAZ and 5T ALGOs as shown above and be able to apply for any market and any time frame on your own PC ? You can now have a three weeks free trial where the ALGO is enabled along with few studies for your own sierra/ ATcharts. The trial comes with a 23 page PDF booklet which explains the concepts, risks and methodology in more details.

Continue reading “Real Time Trade Alerts & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.08.2013”

How Does Crude Oil Affect Gas Prices? What Else Does?

Posted on by Ilan

The answer to the question in the title of this piece was stated pretty assuredly in a 2005 publication by the Federal Trade Commission. The most important factor in the price of gasoline, the 166-page report concluded, was “the world price of crude oil“. It went on: “Over the last 20 years, changes in crude oil prices have explained 85% of the changes in the price for gasoline in the U.S.”1 And there aren’t too many macro-unknowns out there to affect the price of crude oil. The world produces roughly 85 million barrels of oil every day and every day the world’s population consumes about 90 million barrels. And the generally accepted relationship between crude oil and gasoline is that for every $1 dollar per barrel crude oil moves, gas prices move about 2 ½ cents at the pump. It’s also generally accepted that there’s approximately 1.5 trillion barrels of oil yet to be extracted from the planet – what are called proven reserves – equal to about 50 more years of supply based on our current consumption rate. And according to OPEC’s web site, that cartel – created over 50 years ago – controls about 80% of those reserves.

OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves 2012
OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves 2012

Account for some margin of error and those are all pretty workable numbers for a global commodity like crude oil to live with. The quandary for tracking gas prices isn’t that you can’t measure them accurately against the price of crude oil. That relationship is pretty ingrained. It’s the many other factors that also come into play – at different levels of influence and intensity and at irregular intervals – that cause gasoline prices to move.

Just take a look at the last 6 months. Crude oil shot up over 20% from $86 per barrel to almost $110 per barrel. It then fell over 10% back down to near $96 per barrel.

Continue reading “How Does Crude Oil Affect Gas Prices? What Else Does?”

Volume Charts & Oscillators & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.07.2013

Posted on by Ilan

Connect with Us! Use Our Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports RSS Feed.

Like us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterView our profile on LinkedInFind us on Google+Cannon Trading Futures Trading Resistance & Support Levels and Economic ReportsFind us on Yelp

1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday November 7, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Using tick/Volume charts and Oscillators for day trading

Using tick charts and oscillators for day-trading (by Ilan Levy-Mayer VP of Cannon Trading and CTA at Levex.net )

I really don’t think anyone has found a “perfect way” to day-trade.

Different techniques work well in different market environment.

In this week short educational feature, I will touch about one technique one can add to their trading arsenal. This technique works better on choppy, two sided ways. It DOES NOT work well when the market has a strong trend.

The chart below illustrates a few principals I like:

  1. It uses a tick chart or Range Bar charts rather than a time chart. I like tick charts & range bar better when day-trading shorter time frames for the simple reason it already includes a big factor in the market, VOLUME and PRICE RANGE. If you are using 5 minutes chart for example, you may get signals simply because time “has passed” and certain indicators you are using adopt certain values. When using tick charts, at times where there is lots of movement in the market, you won’t have to wait until your time frame bar closes to get your signal, volume becomes a bigger more important part of your trading decision.

 Read the remaining article “Using tick/Volume charts and Oscillators for day trading”

Continue reading “Volume Charts & Oscillators & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.07.2013”

8 Steps for Successful Day Trading & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.06.2013

Posted on by Ilan

Connect with Us! Use Our Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports RSS Feed.

Like us on FacebookFollow us on TwitterView our profile on LinkedInFind us on Google+Cannon Trading Futures Trading Resistance & Support Levels and Economic ReportsFind us on Yelp

1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday November 6, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

8 Steps for successful Day-Trading

My name is Ilan Levy-Mayer and I am the Vice President and Senior Futures Broker at Cannon Trading. I came up with the following personal observations after serving online traders worldwide for more than 15 years.

The following steps are guides to progress, and are not necessarily in sequential order. Some of them are always required, but each futures trader is different and will relate to these stages in their own ways. While attempting to learn and progress, one must keep in mind that futures trading is risky and can involve significant losses.

1. Education

Hopefully if you are already trading you have completed your initial education: contract specs, trading hours, futures brokers, platforms, the opportunities as well as the risk and need to use risk capital in futures, and so on. Understanding this information is essential to futures trading. The second type of education is ongoing: learning about trading techniques, the evolution of futures markets, different trading tools, and more.

2. Find a System

I am definitely not advising you to go on the web and subscribe to a “black box” system (using buy/sell triggers if don’t know why they are being generated). What I am advising is developing a trading technique: a general set of rules and a trading concept. As you progress, you may want to put the different rules and indicators into a computerized system, but the most important factor is to have a focus and a plan. Don’t just wake up in the morning and trade “blank.”

3. Survival

This is the key! Do what you need to do in order to survive this brutal business and give yourself the chance of being here down the road with more experience and a better chance of success. Survival is probably the biggest key for beginning traders. There is a saying in this business: “live to trade another day.” It is so true!

READ THE REST…..

Continue reading “8 Steps for Successful Day Trading & Futures Levels & Economic Reports for 11.06.2013”

RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.