PCE, Bitcoin and More
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
Heads up:
Keep an eye out tomorrow (7:30 A.M., Central Time) for the release of the Fed’s preferred U.S. inflation gauge: the PCE Personal Consumption & Expenditures Price Index. The consensus is that the January core PCE deflator will ease to 2.8% year-over-year from the 2.9% reading December.
General:
By and large, the outlook for the global economy is improving. In China, the business storm clouds are at least not bucketing down on the county’s overall fiscal house. Report after economic report released in the U.S. continue to validate forecasts of a future “soft landing,” or better – plain ol’ get up and go. To that end, A.I. euphoria dominates the conversation about what’s driving things. Even the disappointment surrounding the Fed’s patience in deciding when interest rates should be lowered hasn’t disturbed the current frame of mind. Keep an eye out for commodities sitting on major lows, such as corn and soybeans. Even with forecasts for a large South American harvest and a stage set for a strong crop year in the U.S., global growth begets global demand and “bargain price” commodities may be ready to mount rallies.
Crypto:
Bitcoin’s value has been on an impressive rise over the past month, and CME Bitcoin futures (“Full-size”-5-Bitcoin contract, 1/50-Micro Bitcoin contract) have lead the way, with the March Micro Bitcoin contract hitting $65,000 during morning trading today, well above the $57,000 range highs posted in Nov. 2021. Open interest for the full-size contract came in at a nominal value of $7.77 billion, which is nearly a third of the market share for all Bitcoin market derivatives – more than Binance ($6.1 billion); more than Bybit ($4.1 billion). These values surpassed past records set in both 2021 and 2017.
At present, the open interest figures for bitcoin futures have reached an all-time high of $24.44 billion as of Feb. 27, 2024.
Energy:
Did you know the U.S. is currently producing around 13.3M barrels of crude per day, which is way more than any country on the globe, including Saudi Arabia at ±8.9M barrels per day (as of Dec. ’23). The output growth has helped tame gas prices and, perhaps more importantly, undermined the influence of OPEC and Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Producers also know that while times are good, demand can come down or eventually plateau, especially with the U.S. currently exporting more oil than nearly every member of OPEC. Remember the 2014-16 downturn, which hammered the industry and was largely driven by a supply glut.
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Daily Levels for February 29th, 2024
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.