As a high risk trading type, futures trading is not for someone who is faint-hearted. Though there are a number of different ways of investing in futures , it is important to stick to what you know. Treading into unknown waters is not something that you should do when dealing in futures.
From managing margins to ordering trades to doing market analysis and more if you want to, you can do that all by yourself – but you may betaking double the risk. Therefore, when trading in futures, it may be better to seek advice from a professional trader.
Professional trading experts at Cannon Trading can help you with your futures trading. We are also there to keep you updated with the latest on futures trading and market news. All the news and latest articles on futures trading are published on our site under the category Archive Futures Trading News, which you are currently browsing through. Read more and the latest here and keep updated.
Tomorrow we have BOTH NFP (unemployment) followed by ISM.
Curious on an indicator that can help you with EXITS? How about using a certain indicator as a trailing stop?
Watch the latest trading videos we have posted and see if you can pick a tip or two on trading smarter!
In this week’s newsletter we are sharing four videos, each a few minutes long. The videos discuss practical tips for trading and sharing our experience with you
1. Using Bolinger Bands as a possible tool for exiting trades
2. One way you can use the Parabolics study ( also known as PSAR) to manage current positions, possibly as a trailing stop
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
What to Expect the Last Two Trading Days of the Week
By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker
General: albeit the eighth straight interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve since last March, today’s 25-basis point increase was the smallest move of the streak – with its target range now set to 4.5 – 4.75 percent. In its policy statement, Central Bank officials signaled that while “inflation has eased somewhat,” the fight against inflation has not come to an end and that the Fed “will stay the course until the job is done.” Translation: more hikes are on the way.
Yesterday, the International Monetary Fund raised its 2023 global growth outlook slightly, from their last projected contraction to 2.9% form 2022, to a slightly less discouraging 2.7%. They pointed to “surprisingly resilient” demand in the United States and Europe, an easing of energy costs and the reopening of China’s economy after Beijing abandoned its strict COVID-19 restrictions.
Tomorrow the European Central Bank will meet to determine their own next move in that region’s battle against inflation. They’re almost certain to notch rates up another 50 basis points up to 2.5 percent on their deposit facility, as it’s termed. And similar to the attention paid to Fed chair Jerome Powell’s words, all ears will be honed in on ECB President Christine Lagarde’s communications on the central bank’s guidance and future decisions.
All this is taking place amidst the backdrop of slight improvements in U.S. and Chinese economic expectations. One could make the case that the green shoots indicating signs of improvement for the economy mentioned in the Jan. 18 blog at the very least haven’t withered.
And speaking of not withering, while the outlook for the South American soybean crop remains a concern, traders have started removing the weather premium from prices.
This could contribute to an asset-wide decline in volatility and leave markets prone to trending – up or down.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Chart below is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tomorrow is Wednesday, the first trading day in February 2023 as well as FOMC day.
To add some fuel to the fire, we will have ADP, JOLTS and ISM PMI earlier in the day as well as crude oil numbers!!
Busy day to say the least……
The market is expecting a hike of 25 basis points.
4111 is a MAJOR resistance level for the March SP 500.
Trading on FOMC days
The following are my PERSONAL suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
· Reduce trading size
· Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
· Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 3925.00 with a stop at 3919.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 3919.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
· Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
· Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
· Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
· Keep in mind statement comes out at 1 Pm Central time, the news conference which dissects the language comes out 30 minutes later so the volatility window stretches out.
· Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
· Be patient and be disciplined
· If in doubt, stay out!!
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Chart below is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
A week full of potentially market-moving events, from decisions on interest rates around the world to earnings reports from the biggest U.S. companies. Markets have been veering recently on worries that the economy and corporate profits may be set for a steep drop-off, along with competing hopes that cooling inflation will get the Federal Reserve to take it easier on interest rates.
The central bank’s next decision on rates is coming Wednesday, and most investors expect it to announce an increase of just 0.25 percentage points. That would be the smallest increase since March, following a spate of hikes of 0.75 points and then a 0.50-point increase, and it would mean less added pressure on the economy. The big question is whether Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday afternoon will give markets what they want to hear — hints that rate hikes will end soon and rate cuts may even be possible late this year — or stick to the Fed’s mantra that it plans to keep rates higher for longer, even if a modest recession hits.
Central Banks for the U.K. and Europe are also set to announce the latest increases this week. In addition more than 100 companies are scheduled to announce this week , Tech heavy’s Apple, Amazon and Alphabet to name a few and weight the S&P 500 Index the heaviest at weeks end we have Non Farm Payrolls whose expectations are characterized here at www.econoday.com Released On 2/3/2023 8:30:00 AM For Jan, 2023
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Core PCE tomorrow. While not expected to move the markets like PPI and CPI, we still may see some volatility.
Personal income is expected to edge 0.2 percent higher in December with consumption expenditures expected to decrease 0.1 percent. These would compare with respective November gains of 0.4 and 0.1 percent. PCE inflation readings for December are expected at no change overall and up 0.3 percent for the core (versus respective gains of 0.1 and 0.2 percent) for annual rates of 5.0 and 4.4 percent (versus November’s 5.5 and 4.7 percent).
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Grains / Soy complex: For Soybeans and corn interests, many eyes are on South America, where because their crop year runs counter to here in the U.S., large producers like Argentina and Brazil are approaching harvest. Brazil is set for a bumper soybean crop. Argentina is experiencing drought conditions which are more adversely affecting their corn crop than their soybeans. Traders believe the soybean crop can recover more significantly from the heat and drought as compared with the corn crop.
Gold & Silver: precious metals analysts often look to ETF holdings for guidance on gold and silver futures prices, eyeing inflows and outflows for developing patterns. To wit, both gold and silver ETF holdings are sitting above their levels at the start of the year
Energy:Crude oil traded to a 4-day low this A.M. The likely catalyst could be Chinese energy demand, which seems to be linked to COVID infection rates in that country, whish show little signs of peaking yet. Support at $80.00 per barrel (March contract) looks vulnerable unless we see some confirmation of improving conditions inside China.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
“The Week Ahead” next F.O.M.C. meeting is to be held Next Tuesday and Wednesday Jan. 31st – Feb . 1 as such we have entered the FOMC Board of Governors Blackout time frame. As discussed previously, no members may discuss policy until the rate announcement on Feb. 1st. so there shouldn’t be too many surprise moves that occur in the financial markets usually generated from speaking engagement commentary. Fed Chairman Powell had tested positive for Covid19 but is expected to attend the meeting either in person or remotely as his symptoms are mild.
Of note this week is Q4 GDP on Thursday @ 7:30 am CST and perhaps jobless claims for the week at the same time. This, if a surprise, could shake the financial markets a bit in the short run. Earnings will be the main cause of market movement until next weeks FED Meeting. The Busy Calendar includes Microsoft Tesla, IBM, Intel, American Airlines, Valero, Chevron and Haliburton. This is the Golden Week as China is celebrating it’s lunar New Year, the impact on volume may or may not be seen in some markets but not all. Plan your trade and trade your Plan
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
One of the most overlooked Trading Ingredient: Learn to Lose!
Many different factors go into trading. Too many to discuss efficiently in one blog post. Some relate to trading techniques, other to money management, mental aspect, risk capital and much more.
But one that sticks in my eyes is the inability to accept a loss. I see many clients who can make money and have days where they make money but when they lose, they lose much more, sometimes even losing control and losing a big portion of their account.
I am not sure how a trader can embed this into their trading mind, BUT in my opinion if you train your brain to expect losses, understand losses and that losing days will happen, you will increase your chances of surviving in this business, which in return will actually give you a chance to succeed….
Losses are part of trading and as long as your losses are part of the plan and are quantified in advance and you can adhere to your rules, then you have a chance. I think it’s easy when traders are winning…making money etc. Much harder when you lose or down. your brain starts playing tricks on you…it tells you to double down, maybe reverse even though your analysis does not say so….all of a sudden you start pulling trades out of instinct, fear rather than a calculated plan that has solid risk/ reward.
If a trader learns how to lose, to accept losses, to have realistic expectations, then he/ she can avoid having one of those terrible days when traders can lose almost of all their account.
Also, while a bit easier in my mind, a day trader should also step away when he/she reached a predefined profit target for the trading day. In my humble opinion, the more you day trade, the more fatigued you become and larger chances for errors. Somewhat like a pro basketball player managing their playing minutes….
I went into this subject and detailed day-trading money management in an article I wrote a few years back for SFO magazine.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
General: Even in the face of solid COVID uncertainty for China, a persistent fear that the Fed will overtighten and that a recession is looming here in the U.S., there are some green shoots (thank you to former U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Norman Lamont for coining that term back in ‘91) to indicate signs of improvement for the economy, including growing sentiment that the beginning of the end for rising interest rates – and inflation – is on the horizon.
Take commodity prices for example.
Several that are in tight supply are now responding by tracking higher as a result of modest improvements in demand for their manufactured products. Copper prices – historically viewed as a leading indicator – are up over 30% in the last six months, including a ±14% increase this month so far. Silver is up ±25% since Sept. to year-ago prices around $24/oz. Crude oil has pressed upwards above ±$80/barrel, ±$10 higher this month and on par with prices from last Feb.
At the same time, these higher prices for industrial products have helped keep inflation readings – CPI, PPI notably – stubbornly high with only slight signs of downward movement in the last few releases. This is almost certainly narrowing the runway on which the “Fed Pivot” will eventually use to try landing the economy as softly as possible this year.
Energies: Heads up! As opposed to most weeks when they’re released on Wednesday and Thursday, this week’s Energy Information Agency reports on natural gas storage and crude oil supplies will be released on the same day: tomorrow at 9:30 A.M. and 10:00 A.M., Central Time, respectively. That’s natural gas storage first, followed by crude oil supplies. The Martin Luther King Day holiday effected this schedule change.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
