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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1190
In this issue:
- Important Notices – Israel, Iran, PCE Report & More
- Futures 101 – The Role of Speculators in Futures Trading
- Hot Market of the Week – July Coffee
- Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ intraday System
- Trading Levels for Next Week
- Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
- The situation in the Middle East will loom over the markets next week. More on that below.
- Keep an eye on these potential futures market movers:
- It was hardly unexpected, but Israel’s missile strike on Iran Friday may foreshadow a dangerous series of tit-for-tat retaliation between the Middle East powers – and unsettle world markets. At the same time, the limited scale of the attack and Iran’s muted response appears so far to signal a successful effort by diplomats who have been working to avert all-out war.
- At the outset of Israel’s offensive last night, volatility amplified in key futures markets – stock indexes (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq), currencies, energies (crude oil), metals (gold), financials (30-yr. bonds, 10-yr. notes). Into late evening and on into today, there has been a virtual across-the-board drop-off in the inflated price fluctuation seen when news broke of the military action.
- GDP and PMI along with homes sales, durable goods and overall a packed week with economic reports.
- PCE Friday will provide additional clues as to the future of interest rates
- big earnings week MSFT, GOOG, META, XOM, Visa, TSLA
- Volatility in Cocoa and Coffee continues. Copper broke higher.
Trading Resource of the Week: Understanding the Role of Speculators
What Are Speculators?
Speculators are primary participants in the futures market. A speculator is any individual or firm that accepts risk in order to make a profit. Speculators can achieve these profits by buying low and selling high. But in the case of the futures market, they could just as easily sell first and later buy at a lower price.
Obviously, this profit objective is easier said than done. Nonetheless, speculators aiming to profit in the futures market come in a variety of types. Speculators can be individual traders, proprietary trading firms, portfolio managers, hedge funds or market makers.
Individual Traders
For individuals trading their own funds, electronic trading has helped to level the playing field by improving access to price and trade information. The speed and ease of trade execution, combined with the application of modern risk management, gives the individual trader access to markets and strategies that were once reserved for institutions.
Proprietary Trading Firms
Proprietary trading firms, also known as prop shops, profit as a direct result of their traders’ activity in the marketplace. These firms supply their traders with the education and capital required to execute a large number of trades per day. By using the capital resources of the prop shop, traders gain access to more capital than they would if they were trading on their own account. They also may have access to the same type of research and strategies developed by larger institutions.
Portfolio or Investment Managers
A portfolio or investment manager is responsible for investing or hedging the assets of a mutual fund, exchange-traded fund or closed-end fund. The portfolio manager implements the fund’s investment strategy and manages the day-to-day trading. Futures markets are often used to increase or decrease the overall market exposure of a portfolio without disrupting the delicate balance of investments that may have taken a significant effort to build.
Hedge Funds
A hedge fund is a managed portfolio of investments that uses advanced investment strategies to maximize returns, either in an absolute sense or relative to a specified market benchmark. The name hedge fund is mostly historical, as the first hedge funds tried to hedge against the risk of a bear market by shorting the market. Today, hedge funds use hundreds of different strategies in an effort to maximize returns. The diverse and highly liquid futures marketplace offer hedge funds the ability to execute large transactions and either increase or decrease the market exposure of their portfolio.
Market Makers
Market makers are trading firms that have contractually agreed to provide liquidity to the markets, continually providing both bids and offers, usually in exchange for a reduction in trading fees. Market makers are important to the trading ecosystem as they help facilitate the movement of large transactions without effecting a substantial change in price. Market makers often profit from capturing the spread, the small difference between the bid and offer prices over a large number of transactions, or by trading related futures markets that they view as being priced to provide opportunity.
Conclusion
All types of speculators bring liquidity to the market place. Providing liquidity is a crucial market function that enables individuals to easily enter or exit the market. Though speculative trading activity generates considerable liquidity, all market players benefit. In contrast to speculators who aim to profit by assuming market risk, some buyers and sellers have a vested interest in the underlying asset of each contact. These market participants aim to offset or eliminate risk and are referred to as hedgers.
- Hot Market of the Week – July Coffee
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
July Coffee
July Coffee satisfied its third upside PriceCount objective in where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can sustain additional upside we are left with thelow percentage fourth count to aim for just above $300.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Intraday
COST
USD 55 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$25,000
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Daily Levels for April 22nd 2024
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
