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More Grain & Soy Product Volatility: Corn & Wheat Focus:
by Mark O’Brien
December
corn posted its fourth consecutive new contract high yesterday, likely still finding support from last week’s smaller-than-expected planted acreage number in the year’s USDA Prospective Planting report. For both
corn and
wheat, the war in Ukraine has traders worried about global grain supply, given Ukraine’s significant contribution to both. China’s
wheat crop has been described as a “potential disaster,” by the Hightower Report’s Stephen Maass and he’s not alone in his assessment of the country’s crop conditions, due to last fall’s record-breaking rain and flooding and subsequent planting delays. Additionally, record fertilizer prices may cause producers to use less, affecting this crop year’s yield. Phrases like ‘food inflation’ and ‘food scarcity’ are finding their way into commentary on future prices for a range of base commodities like grains, softs (
orange juice,
sugar,
coffee) and other “off exchange” staples.
This all sounds like the stage is set for price increases rarely seen for some commodities, particularly grains, but caveats abound. We’re way too early in the U.S. crop year to foresee how things will play out at harvest. Weather – anywhere in the world – is a fickle element and grain futures prices can seesaw at the slightest hint of change. We’ve already seen commodity prices react – or over react – to even hints of cessations of the war in Ukraine: peace talks, cease fires and the like. This should continue to be the expectation for price moves reacting to more of the same.
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