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E-Mini NASDAQ 100 Futures Technical Analysis for July 16th 2013

Sept. Mini NASDAQ futures ( symbol on most platforms is NQU3) are trading at 3070.00 at the time I am writing this analysis – July 16th 2013.

As a commodity futures broker,  I am going to focus on the technical aspect of this market and provide my technical opinion, I think it is important to be aware of the fundamental aspects and the events coming up which can move the market either way. To start with,  Traders are probably already looking forward to today’s testimony before Congress by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. The big question he will be asked is how does the FED plans on tapering down the massive injection of cash or what we know as QE. I think the reason the markets are down today is in anticipation of this testimony. Economic numbers will continue to pour in as well as a G20 meeting and earning season is in place.

From the technical aspect, the market is strong. Price action broke the highs from May 22 2013 which is now acting as first major support level. Using Fibonacci extension levels, measuring the rally we had in April – May 2013 and applying it forward we are looking at possible target of 3147.25 to the upside.

BUT….and this is a big but, if the recent rally we had was done on higher volume I would feel stronger about the upside potential. If you look at the volume indicator on the bottom of the chart, you will notice how trading volume is actually declining while price is rising. Not a good sign if you are a bull and hence my cautious view of the upside. Elliott Wave theory suggests we are in the 5th wave of this rally and projects on the chart possible price for the 5th wave as well ( please see projected possible 5th wave in the chart image) . The bottom line in my view : the chart is pointing higher but the low volume will makes me a cautious bull and I would look for signals of exhaustion in the rally and possible reversal. As of today, a break below 3048.00 will be the first clue and an additional break below 3021 will make me favor the down side.

Wishing you patient in your futures trading and discipline!

E-mini NASDAQ 100 Equalized Active Daily Continuation

E-mini NASDAQ 100 Equalized Active Daily Continuation

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

 

Tags: > > > > Posted in: Future Trading News   | Futures Broker   | Index Futures  

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