The US is in a period of high economic uncertainty. Over the coming days, we are expecting potential increased volatility across markets as the US government vote on the US debt ceiling deal by Wednesday evening (US Eastern Time).
Days to consider
• May 31: US House to vote
•May 31 or later: US Senate consideration
•June 5: Projected the “X-date” for default
Many reports are due tomorrow, the first trading day of the month/ June. Make sure to check out the reports section below.
Also keep in mind that due to Memorial weekend we just observed, crude oil numbers will be out tomorrow at 11 AM eastern
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Recently, we have listened to quite a bit of noise regarding the debt ceiling and the possible effect on the economy and the stock market. It is my personal opinion that a resolution will be reached and at that point we may see stocks going higher. Although it’s hard to tell and no one can predict the future, from technical perspective I’m looking at the NQ chart (E-mini Nasdaq 100) and the ES chart (E-mini S&P 500) and I feel that the NASDAQ 100 is stronger than the S&P 500. Hence I would look for a possible spread between the two indexes.
In terms of a possible futures spread, I think a good ratio may be 2:3 – either with two LONG E-mini Nasdaq vs. three SHORT E-mini S&P 500, or two LONG Micro E-mini Nasdaq vs. two SHORT Micro E-mini S&P 500. This is based on recent price levels, volatility and trend.
Below you will see a daily chart of both markets and levels to watch for.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
This week more than most (and just wait ‘til next week), Washington D.C. holds the key to price action in the futures markets and more broadly, global economic sentiment. As of this writing, there are still no signs that negotiations regarding the raising of the U.S. borrowing level are approaching a breakthrough. Futures markets – particularly ones in the financial sector such as interest rate instruments, equity indexes and currencies are justified in their unease. If the U.S. government misses an interest payment and defaults on its debt, even for just a few hours next week, its creditworthiness could suffer long-lasting consequences. For proof, just examine the plans being made by this country’s three major ratings companies — S&P Global Ratings, Moody’s and Fitch Ratings. All three are prepared to lower the rating of the United States as a borrower and not just temporarily if lawmakers come to a late agreement. More proof: in 2011, even though a debt-limit deal was reached, the U.S. lost its S&P AAA credit rating – lowered to AA+ – and has not recovered since.
Metals:
Copper, ever eyeing the economic conditions within the world’s biggest consumer: China, continued to be disappointed in that country’s flagging recovery and slid to lows not seen since last November. The July contract lost over 10 cents today, intraday, a ±55-cent / $13,500 slide since the beginning of April.
Softs:
Today’s intraday high of $2.9590 per pound in July orange juice marks a new all-time high for this famed commodity (remember Eddie Murphy in Trading Places) reestablishing a significant price increase from ±$2.00 at the beginning of the year. The latest surge – a mere eight trading sessions – elevated prices ±55 cents – a ±$8,250 move.
Currency:
More often observed for guidance on other markets’ direction, the U.S. Dollar Index has cautiously moved up ±370 points / $3,700 off its lows near 100.00, a level down through which it has unsuccessfully tried to puncture three times this year, most recently at the beginning of the month.
It can’t be understated as we approach the date an agreement would need to be in place to deal with our federal government’s debt limit (approximately June 1) that traders across the commodities spectrum – including the aforementioned as well as metals, energies, even agricultural products – need to take heed when entering the markets. As we approach that point in time, markets may be more and more on a knife-edge and quick to react. While it’s more fortunate that the situation is “local,” as opposed to being influenced by international affairs and any developments tend to reported at a fast pace, trade with caution and alertness.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
THIS WEEK FOMC Minutes will be the big mover in addition to ongoing Debt limit increase negotiations between The Executive and Legislative branches of government. Minutes of the FOMC meeting of May 2-3 will be released on Wednesday at 1:00PM CDT. In the immediate wake of the FOMC statement there was optimism that Fed policymakers were leaning toward a pause in interest rates after a swift raising of the fed funds target range by 500 basis points that began 13 months ago. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against that perception in his press briefing on May 3. Although, he did say last week that tight credit conditions may limit the need for further policy tightening. In the weeks since the meeting, other Fed policymakers have cautioned against being too certain that more rate hikes are not on the way.
The minutes are likely to reinforce these views, and that these views probably haven’t shifted. The economic data released in recent weeks point to a still strong labor market and continued stubborn inflation. This is the formula that has kept the Fed on a path of further tightening to address imbalances in the labor supply/demand and reduce demand for goods and services that are pushing up prices.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Fed Governor speeches, Retail Sales, Industrial production, Housing starts, Jobless Claims, More Fed Governor speeches, Existing home sales, and, the big one, Jerome Powell speaking on Friday….
Tomorrow Fed Members Mester and Bostic are speaking @ 7:15 and 7:55 am CDT respectively. Retail sales numbers will be released during Mester’s words @ 7:30 am CDT. Analysts expect Retail sales to rise .07 % from March’s numbers that were negative for auto’s and gasoline. Industrial production will be released shortly thereafter and during Bostic’s speaking engagement @ 8:15am CDT. Analysts expect a flat IP number with capacity utilization lower by a few percentage points as layoffs may accelerate in the manufacturing sector. Wednesday we will see Housing Starts and permits. Analysts have revealed “Housing starts in March edged lower to a 1.420 million annualized rate; April is expected to slip further to 1.405 million. Permits, at 1.413 million in March and, though lower than expected, very near the starts rate, is expected to rise to 1.430 million.” per Econoday. Jobless claims will be Thursday’s highlighted report and expected to fall within the 250-270K range. Existing Home Sales top of the week’s reports @ 9am CDT sandwiched in between Fed governor speech’s , Jefferson @ 8:05 am CDT and Logan @ 9 am CDT,, remember that markets like to discount expectations and only move when the data is out of line with expectations.. we wrap up the Fed Governor’s speeches for the week when the big Kahuna , Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be speaking publically Friday @ 10am CDT!..
As always, plan your trade and trade your plan!
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Are you ready to go for gold?
Then here is your golden opportunity. CME Group will be launching the Go for Gold Precious Metals Trading Challenge coming this June.
You’ll have the opportunity to practice trading highly liquid Precious Metals products while competing against other traders for the chance to win the grand prize of a 1 oz. bar of gold*.
During the challenge, you’ll explore our suite of precious metals contracts and test-drive strategies in a simulated environment. We’ll send you exclusive, daily education materials on precious metals contracts in order for you to feel prepared to trade and confidently compete against your peers.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Join our private Facebook group for additional insight into trading and the futures markets!
In this issue:
Important Notices – Win 1 OZ Gold Bar!
Trading Resource of the Week – Why Do Most Future traders lose?
Hot Market of the Week – July Copper
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Browse Hundreds of “Hands Free” Systems
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
Are you ready to go for gold?
Then here is your golden opportunity. CME Group will be launching the Go for Gold Precious Metals Trading Challenge coming this June.
You’ll have the opportunity to practice trading highly liquid Precious Metals products while competing against other traders for the chance to win the grand prize of a 1 oz. bar of gold*.
During the challenge, you’ll explore our suite of precious metals contracts and test-drive strategies in a simulated environment. We’ll send you exclusive, daily education materials on precious metals contracts in order for you to feel prepared to trade and confidently compete against your peers.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
July copper collapsed to a new low for the move where the chart has met its second downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade upon completing the objective. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the third count would project a run to the 3.54 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Hundreds of “Hands Free” Automated Systems to Choose from!
Are you too busy to trade? Perhaps you’re not confident enough and you’re trading. Maybe you’re looking to the diversify your own trading with algorithmic trading or what we call automated trading. Browse over 500 trading systems. Review back test results, live results, drawdowns, returns and much more!!
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Trading Levels for Next Week
Daily Levels for May 15th, 2022
Weekly Levels
Trading Reports for Next Week
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Then here is your golden opportunity. CME Group will be launching the Go for Gold Precious Metals Trading Challenge coming this June.
You’ll have the opportunity to practice trading highly liquid Precious Metals products while competing against other traders for the chance to win the grand prize of a 1 oz. bar of gold*.
During the challenge, you’ll explore our suite of precious metals contracts and test-drive strategies in a simulated environment. We’ll send you exclusive, daily education materials on precious metals contracts in order for you to feel prepared to trade and confidently compete against your peers.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Despite the fireworks frequently on display from stock index futures immediately preceding the release of the Consumer Price Index report over the last several months, an interesting result followed. In each of the last five releases, the S&P 500 closed within 0.5% of the prior day’s settlement. This is in stark contrast to some of the reports last year, notably November’s CPI release that sent the Nasdaq up ±7%.
On the heels of today’s CPI release indexes are looking to finish up with a similar outcome. This morning’s report showed consumer prices up 4.9% from last year, yet it marked the tenth consecutive month the inflation gauge slowed – now down from its peak of 9.1% last June, but still well north of the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
Next up tomorrow at 7:30 A.M., Central Time, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its latest reading on prices at the wholesale level: its Producer Price Index.
Markets:
Metals: After piercing last month’s highs and touching $2,085 / ounce intraday last Thursday, June gold has consolidated somewhat, not too scared or encouraged by today’s inflation report – and not ready to anticipate the Fed.’s next move.
July copper sold off ±5 cents today and for the fifth time in the last ten trading sessions has tested 5-month lows near $3.82 / pound. This on the heels of languid economic reading from the world’s largest commodities consumer: China.
Energies: The negative sentiment from China dragged crude oil below its 5-6-month intraday low of March 20th at $64.58 per barrel, trading intraday last Thursday to $63.64 per barrel, a ±$20-per-barrel / $20,000 per contract skid from its mid-April ascendance to ±$83 per barrel. Given crude oil’s seemingly continual fixation with the events of the day – whatever they are – volatility remains – and the market has bounced ±$10 per barrel in barely four trading sessions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The week ahead, more inflation data and the Elephant in the room. Joe Biden is heading into a critical week with congressional leaders over the debt limit . A battle that neither side wants, that neither side wants to compromise on, but both sides need to resolve. A Tuesday meeting will provide odds of a resolution happening in the few weeks remaining before the debt default deadline, June 1st. Be prepared for the volume on each sides megaphone’s to be amplified by the ten’s of decibels. What we do know this week is that no less than 4 Fed board governors will be speaking, 2 on Tuesday during market hours; 7:30 am CDT and 11:05 am CDT respectively, 9:15am CDT Wednesday with Bullard wrapping up the speaking engagements after the Friday close, potentially impacting Sunday nights trade. Inflation DATA : Fasten your seat belts for these 2 numbers CPI Wednesday morning @ 7:30 CDT , economists expectations are really no change from the previous months data, that seems like more of a hope to me, be ready if you like to trade the CPI for anything. Speaking of being ready for anything, Thursday mornings release of the PPI @ 7:30 am CDT may also create unnatural volatility as economists are expecting producer prices to have increased in April from the March reports decline. prepare yourselves for large intraday moves. keep your ears to the wall as you listen for clues to further fed tightening or pauses as these Fed Governors’ speak. At Cannon we are known for creating a trading plan and trading that plan.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Join our private Facebook group for additional insight into trading and the futures markets!
In this issue:
Important Notices – CPI, PPI, Crop Reports is this Week!
Trading Resource of the Week – FREE Trading Psychology Course
Hot Market of the Week – July Bean Meal
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Browse Hundreds of “Hands Free” Systems
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices
This week we have CPI, PPI and crop report!
Trading Resource of the Week – Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course FREE
Trading 102: Commitment of Traders Report – What Lies beneath
Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
July soybean meal completed its second downside PriceCount objective in March and corrected higher. Now, the chart is threatening to break down where new sustained lows from here would project a run to the third count in the $412 area where it will be normal to see some consolidation price action.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Hundreds of “Hands Free” Automated Systems to Choose from!
Are you too busy to trade? Perhaps you’re not confident enough and you’re trading. Maybe you’re looking to the diversify your own trading with algorithmic trading or what we call automated trading. Browse over 500 trading systems. Review back test results, live results, drawdowns, returns and much more!!
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
