If you are currently trading options on futures or are interested in exploring them further, check out our newly updated trading guide, featuring 25 commonly used options strategies, including butterflies, straddles, strangles, backspread and conversions. Each strategy includes an illustration demonstrating the effect of time decay on the total option premium involved in the position.
Options on futures rank among our most versatile risk management tools, and are offered on most of our products. Whether you trade options for purposes of hedging or speculating, you can limit your risk to the amount you paid up-front for the option while maintaining your exposure to beneficial price movements. To learn more about CME Group options, you can also visit our Options page
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Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
Dec. Corn resumed it’s break into new lows which has the chart taking aim at it’s third downside PriceCount objective of the $5.61 area.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
PCE tomorrow. Last few PCE reports we saw some very wild moves!
What is the PCE report?
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis (latest release): Measures Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding food and energy; Usual Effect ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for currency;
Frequency Released monthly, about 30 days after the month ends;
Next Release Mar 31, 2023 FF Notes Differs from Core CPI in that it only measures goods and services targeted towards and consumed by individuals.
Prices are weighted according to total expenditure per item which gives important insights into consumer spending behavior. CPI is released about 10 days earlier and tends to garner most of the attention;
Why Traders Care? It’s the Federal Reserve’s primary inflation measure. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate;
Acro Expand Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), Consumer Price Index (CPI);
Would you like to hear the PCE numbers and market reaction LIVE tomorrow? Get a trial of breaking news, text alerts and market insight directly on your trading desktop? Start here.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The below commentary about tomorrow’s FOMC minutes is provided by www.NewSquawk.com
FOMC MINUTES (WED): After economic data for January highlighted a hot economy where inflation appears to be sticky, traders will look through the minutes for clues about how the central bank could respond, specifically looking at any commentary that indicates officials have appetite for rate hikes to resume with jumbo increments above 25bps, or even expectations of a higher terminal rate for the cycle. As a reminder, the Fed hiked its FFR by 25bps to 4.5-4.75% at its February meeting, as expected.
The statement said the central bank continues to see “ongoing increases” in the Fed rate as being appropriate, coming against some expectations that the line could be dropped in order to give optionality for a lower terminal rate than the 5-5.25% median dot in the December SEPs. While that didn’t happen, we did see a switch in language on guidance from the “pace of future increases” to the “extent of future increases,” suggesting that debate is moving from the size of hike increments to how many hikes remain in the cycle, a dovish offset to the continued use of “ongoing increases”. Elsewhere in the statement, the Fed acknowledged that inflation had eased
somewhat, but remained elevated. Chair Powell sat on the fence on many topics he was asked about in his postmeeting press conference, rather than cut off his options.
The Fed Chair confirmed that the disinflation process was underway, albeit he was eager to highlight that core services inflation, ex-housing, had not shown progress. He believes that policy is still not ‘sufficiently restrictive’, but left optionality by stressing data dependence, later saying that it is possible that the Fed updates its policy path if the data came in differently to what it expects. Powell said the Fed has not yet made a decision on the terminal rate, and that it will look at the data between now and the March SEPs.
The Fed chief sees a path to getting inflation to 2% without significant economic decline, though it could take more slowing in the economy than it expects.
The below commentary about tomorrow’s FOMC minutes is provided by www.NewSquawk.com
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
At some point in nearly everyone’s trading timelines, they wonder how their trading successes (or failures) compare with those of other traders. Wondering just how well you stack up to other traders in the industry is a natural curiosity and a human psychological tendency. However, actually knowing the success or failure rates of others doesn’t do a lot to move you farther down the road of where you want to be regarding trading success.
Most traders also wonder about the success rates of the “professional” traders—the ones who make their living solely by the profits they generate from trading. I will provide you with an answer to this question at the end of this feature.
Below are 10 questions regarding measuring your own trading progress and success. These questions should help you determine where you stand in this challenging field of endeavor.
1. What is trading “success?” This is a most basic question. Most would agree that ultimate trading success is defined as being profitable at trading—making more money than you lose. There are other secondary factors that also define success in trading, such as finding a “balance” between trading and other life activities. But it’s being profitable at trading that is the benchmark of defining success.
2. What is trading “progress?” Beginning traders should not expect to have immediate and ultimate success trading futures, stocks or FOREX markets. What they can expect in the early going is to make steady progress through gaining knowledge and experience. Even veteran successful traders continue to make trading progress. Achieving and maintaining trading success requires continual progress—namely continuing to seek out trading and market knowledge. Traders who truly enjoy the “progress” and process of trading do have a significant trading edge over those who do not enjoy learning and gaining experience.
3. At what point in my trading timeline should I expect trading “success?” Trading success (winning trades) can come right away—even for the beginning traders. What is less likely for the inexperienced traders is sustained trading success. Beginners can even run into a “hot streak” that skews the overall reality of trading. Immediate (and likely fleeting) success for a beginning futures trader can do longer-term psychological harm—if he or she does not fully recognize and understand the hard work and perseverance required on the road to trading success. Many times I get questions from less-experienced traders that go something like this: “I’ve been trading two years and I’ve only been able to about break even.” My reply to them is, “Hey, you should not be too discouraged with those results. Many traders don’t have that kind of success in the early going.”
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
April Gold satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective last month and could not sustain further strength. Now, the chart has activated downside counts on the correction lower. The first objective projects a run to the 1797. It would take a trade below the November reactionary low to negate the remaining upside targets.
April Gold Futures Chart
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
While yesterday’s U.S. Consumer Price Index showed inflation continues to slow from its readings in 2022, CPI readings, the pace of declined slowed and a wide array prices stayed elevated, including food, clothes (women’s apparel dropped slightly), rent and hotel rooms. Once again, a key economic report has shown that the road back to 2.0% inflation, on which the Federal Reserve is committed to following, is going to be lengthy and rugged. It certainly leaves Fed in a hawkish posture.
Be alert: the release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index is on deck for tomorrow. The report comes out at 7:30 A.M., Central Time.
Markets:
Metals:
Gold (April) has declined ±$130 (a ±$13,000 move) since its Feb. 1 intraday high of $1,970.80 / oz. Today’s $1839.30 intraday low sets it back to prices not seen since the first of the for the calendar year.
For most of the last few months, U.S. corn prices have justifiably focused on crop conditions, including obviously yield and quality, in Argentina and Brazil, which have continually come in far from ideal. As a result, the markets have priced in current and further crop damage coming into the South America harvest. That’s about to shift with the start of the crop year here in the U.S. Forecasts for planted acreage, demand, ending stocks, stocks/usage ratio – all tracked by the USDA and sized up by traders – are about to take center stage. As crops from the southern hemisphere are “made,” if little or no further surprises hit, look for CBOT corn prices to settle in for news of this year’s U.S. crop, starting with Prospective Plantings late next month.
Despite the uneven decline of crude oil prices over the last 8 months from their ±$105 per barrel highs of last June (basis March) down to a few recent forays to the low 70’s per barrel, crude oil looks to still be focused on growing Chinese demand. As we approach the traditional U.S. driving season in May, look for recent lows as meaningful signs of support.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Get Ready! not 1, Not 2 not even 3 CPI reports this week. Tis’ the season for western Govt CPI reporting and none more impactful than the US CPI number to be released at 7:30 PST Tuesday Morning. The Swiss did it Monday morning. The Brits are doing it Wednesday morning, The French release on Friday afternoon. Here is Econoday.com’s Consensus for the U.S. number . Remember, Deviations from consensus drive volatility because the assumption is, consensus is already baked into the market.
Outlook
January’s monthly core rate is expected to hold at December’s as-expected and moderate 0.3 percent. Overall prices are expected to rise 0.5 percent to offset December’s 0.1 percent decline. Annual rates, at 6.5 percent overall in December and 5.7 percent for
The core, are expected to moderate to 6.2 and 5.5 percent. These data releases have roiled the markets in near unprecedented fashion recently directly tied to the interest rate tightening cycle we have been in for 3 quarters. The rest of the week we have a full slate of economic releases, anyone of which will move markets, some longer than others. For example US Retail sales and Industrial Production, Thursday Housing Starts, Jobless claims, Philly Fed and US:PPI Final demand. be alert!
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
“You Must Understand That There Is More Than One Path To The Top Of The Mountain.”- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book Of Five Rings: The Classic Guide To Strategy
Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
Whether you’re a day trader, a position trader, a spread trader, or an option trader, some of the mental challenges and the questions to go with them are constant:
How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
December Cotton developed upside PriceCount objective off the fall lows and been trending higher since. Now the market is taking a shot at the first price objective of 89 cents. It is a normal pattern to see a correction or consolidation if upside PriceCount objective is met.
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Week Ahead – FRB Federal Reserve Bank’s quiet period or Blackout period is over
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
On an otherwise quiet week for economic releases and the FRB Federal Reserve Bank’s quiet period or Blackout period over, The Fed members are again, free to entertain speaking engagements. If you remember last week, Chairman Powell and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced the expected .25 rate hike.
On Tuesday, February 7th @ 12:40p.m. EST, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to appear at the Economic Club of Washington D.C., and may give investors and retail traders a preview of his semi-annual report to Congress later this month. Powell may also update his outlook given the January employment number surprise was released after the FOMC rate decision. Of note, Last Friday marked the halfway mark in the earnings season as 250 of the S&P 500 stocks finished reporting their earnings. Of course we have another leg to go as we turn the corner and look for few ,if any earnings surprises across the board as lowered expectations have been baked into the market already. On the jobs front we do have a jobless claims report, pre market on Thursday at 7:30 a.m. CST. Finally for the week, The President’s State of the Union address is tomorrow night @9 P.M. EST, 8 P.M. CST. Although you should be able to view his speech on any of your favorite news outlets, we don’t expect any market changing announcements of substance. Be on the ball if there is.
A Cannon broker will be able to assist, provide feedback and answer any questions.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.