Crude Oil & Gold Futures Information & Economic Reports 6.11.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday June 11, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 

Once again we are witnessing lower volume, lower volatility as stock indices are hanging around their all time highs….

I know that for me personally, this type of environment would be hard to day trade, hence the reason I am sharing with you a piece I wrote before about other markets to consider for day trading:

Crude Oil and Gold futures.

 

More than a few similarities between the two markets.

They are both volatile, can move VERY fast. I have seen some very large moves happen in matter of minutes if not seconds. The “fear & greed” factor really plays a role in these specific two markets.

Both have active trading hours starting with Far East trading around 10 PM est all the way to the next morning until about 3 PM est. Good volume generally speaking but not close to the mini SP or ten year notes. So you may see some slippage on stops but the volume is more than enough to trade size.

Each tick on gold is $10, so every dollar move =$100 against you or in your favor. Crude is similar, each tick = $10. One full $1 move = $1000.

Both markets were quiet today relatively speaking but even on a quiet day, the range on gold was $13 or = $1300 wide using one futures contract. Crude ranges today was  than $1.08 or about $1080 between hi/lo.

I like using overbought/ oversold indicators on the two markets as well as using range / Renko charts.

 

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Crude Oil Futures Chart & Futures/Commodities Levels 5.07.2014

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday May 7, 2014

Hello Traders,

For 2014 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!

 Below is a screen shot of the Crude Oil chart from the last few trading sessions. I use 18 ticks range bar chart. This model does well when the market has two sided volatility and action like in the chart below but tend to get chopped when there is a strong trend.

 

809 Continue reading “Crude Oil Futures Chart & Futures/Commodities Levels 5.07.2014”

How Does Crude Oil Affect Gas Prices? What Else Does?

The answer to the question in the title of this piece was stated pretty assuredly in a 2005 publication by the Federal Trade Commission. The most important factor in the price of gasoline, the 166-page report concluded, was “the world price of crude oil“. It went on: “Over the last 20 years, changes in crude oil prices have explained 85% of the changes in the price for gasoline in the U.S.”1 And there aren’t too many macro-unknowns out there to affect the price of crude oil. The world produces roughly 85 million barrels of oil every day and every day the world’s population consumes about 90 million barrels. And the generally accepted relationship between crude oil and gasoline is that for every $1 dollar per barrel crude oil moves, gas prices move about 2 ½ cents at the pump. It’s also generally accepted that there’s approximately 1.5 trillion barrels of oil yet to be extracted from the planet – what are called proven reserves – equal to about 50 more years of supply based on our current consumption rate. And according to OPEC’s web site, that cartel – created over 50 years ago – controls about 80% of those reserves.

OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves 2012
OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves 2012

Account for some margin of error and those are all pretty workable numbers for a global commodity like crude oil to live with. The quandary for tracking gas prices isn’t that you can’t measure them accurately against the price of crude oil. That relationship is pretty ingrained. It’s the many other factors that also come into play – at different levels of influence and intensity and at irregular intervals – that cause gasoline prices to move.

Just take a look at the last 6 months. Crude oil shot up over 20% from $86 per barrel to almost $110 per barrel. It then fell over 10% back down to near $96 per barrel.

Continue reading “How Does Crude Oil Affect Gas Prices? What Else Does?”

Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports for September 25, 2013

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday September 25, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

Today’s two sided volatility in crude oil futures fitted my trading model/philosophy well.

Below is a screen shot from today along with the different signals.

If you like a free trial to this ALGO along with the PDF document I created, which explains the set ups ( AND have not had the trial before…) then follow instructions below the chart.

Crude Oil 18 Ticks Range Bar Charts
Crude Oil 18 Ticks Range Bar Charts

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GOOD TRADING

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Futures Trading Levels

Contract Dec. 2013  SP500 (big & Mini) Nasdaq100 (big & Mini) Dow Jones (big & Mini) Mini Russell Dollar Index
Resistance 3 1713.17 3257.25 15457 1096.87 81.02
Resistance 2 1707.08 3244.00 15413 1088.33 80.88
Resistance 1 1699.67 3229.25 15348 1080.37 80.79
Pivot 1693.58 3216.00 15304 1071.83 80.66
Support 1 1686.17 3201.25 15239 1063.87 80.57
Support 2 1680.08 3188.00 15195 1055.33 80.43
Support 3 1672.67 3173.25 15130 1047.37 80.34
Contract Dec. Gold Dec. Silver Nov. Crude Oil Dec. Bonds  Dec. Euro
Resistance 3 1356.7 2275.2 105.22 134 18/32 1.3562
Resistance 2 1343.1 2239.3 104.43 133 27/32 1.3542
Resistance 1 1332.8 2204.2 103.88 133 14/32 1.3507
Pivot 1319.2 2168.3 103.09 132 23/32 1.3487
Support 1 1308.9 2133.2 102.54 132 10/32 1.3452
Support 2 1295.3 2097.3 101.75 131 19/32 1.3432
Support 3 1285.0 2062.2 101.20 131  6/32 1.3397
Contract Dec Corn Dec. Wheat Nov.Beans Dec. SoyMeal Dec. bean Oil
Resistance 3 457.7 662.8 1325.67 424.07 42.38
Resistance 2 455.6 660.9 1322.83 420.03 42.32
Resistance 1 452.2 659.6 1317.67 416.17 42.20
Pivot 450.1 657.7 1314.83 412.13 42.14
Support 1 446.7 656.3 1309.7 408.3 42.0
Support 2 444.6 654.4 1306.83 404.23 41.96
Support 3 441.2 653.1 1301.67 400.37 41.84
For complete contract specifications for the futures markets listed above click here!

5. Economic Reports

source:http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)

 

Date 3:52pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Graph
WedSep 25  2:00am EUR GfK German Consumer Climate 7.1 6.9
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 1.1% -0.8%
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.0% -7.4%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 422K 394K
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories -1.0M -4.4M

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading

Erratic Price Fluctuations in Crude Oil and Rising Options Volatility

Crude oil futures have traded between $102 and $109 per barrel within the last few weeks (7/19 to 8/9 2013), touching both extremes twice within that period of time. Thursday’s (8/8) 3-week low of 102.24 on the September futures contract was followed by a surge up to a 105.92 high late that day and into Friday, a 3.5% rebound.

As a direct result, crude options volatility for at-the-money options expiring in September, a measure of expected price swings in crude oil and a gauge of options value, also increased.

This market move is a great opportunity to discuss option volatility. Change in options volatility is an important component when calculating an option’s value and can shed light on possible options trading strategies to implement. When you look at option prices and consider certain strategies, knowing whether an option or set of options are “over priced” or “under priced” due to high or low options volatility affords useful information as to whether you should be selling options or buying them.

Continue reading “Erratic Price Fluctuations in Crude Oil and Rising Options Volatility”

Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports for April 25, 2013

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Wednesday April 24, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

 

Day Trading Commodities with Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures volatility offers a “different market personality” than stock index futures. Here is some of the things you need to know about day trading crude oil futures:

Date: April 23, 2013


By: Ilan Levy-Mayer, Cannon Trading Commodities Broker & VP

 

Crude Oil is one of MY favorite futures market for day trading. Before I dive in and share with you how the volatility in crude oil fits my risk tolerance for day trading and provide a couple of chart examples, we should review some of the specifications of Crude Oil Futures

Crude Oil Futures have monthly expiration. So each month we trade a different contract month, so one needs to know when is the first notice day and last trading day for crude oil futures in order to always make sure we are trading the proper month with the most liquidity and avoid any chance of getting into delivery situation.

Next is the contract size. Crude Oil futures are based on 100,000 barrels. To be honest from a day trading perspective all I care is that each tick or 1 cent fluctuation is $10 against me or in my favor per contract. That means that a move from 92.94 to 92.74 = $200.

Another factor is trading hours. At the time I am sharing my thoughts with you, April 8th 2013, crude oil futures trade on the CME Globex platform and trade from 5 PM CDT until the next day at 4 PM CDT. That is 23 of straight trading hours. I definitely don’t recommend day trading this market 23 hours…but it is good to know the trading hours.

Volume in crude oil futures is pretty good to trade in my opinion. Averaging about 300,000 contracts per day.

One last pointer to touch on is the API (American Petroleum Institute) report that normally comes out Wednesday at 9:30 CDT (on short weeks, holidays etc. , this report will be pushed to Thursday at 10 AM CDT). I tell my clients that this report is way too volatile and I like to be out 5 minutes before and not resume trading 5 minutes until after the report comes out. This report by itself deserves a writing but on short, the report provides information on how our stock pile is doing ( = supply/demand)  and the market will move based on the numbers versus what was expected. Again as a day trader, your main job is to know about this report, when it comes out and in my opinion stay out of the market during this time…Read Full Article.

 

 

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Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports for April 11, 2013

 

Jump to a section in this post:

1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday April 11, 2013

Hello Traders,

For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading! 

 

Daily Price Limit Methodology Now Effective 
Implemented Monday, April 8, 2013

Changes to the daily price limit methodology for CME and CBOT equity index futures went into effect Monday, April 8, 2013, in coordination with rollout of Market Wide Circuit Breaker changes in the underlying cash equity market. These changes were deferred from an earlier planned rollout date on February 4.

As previously announced, Market Wide Circuit Breakers, or trading halts, for cash equity markets are now determined by declines in the S&P 500 Index (vs. the Dow Jones Industrial Average). Trading halt levels are as follows:

 

Levels as of
April 8, 2013

Effective Hours of 
Levels as of April 8, 2013

Level 1

7%

8:30 a.m. CT – 3:00 p.m. CT

Level 2

13%

Level 3

20%

Overnight

5%

3:00 p.m. CT – 4:15 p.m. CT;
5:00 p.m. CT – 8:30 a.m. CT

 

In addition, we have coordinated the following changes to CME and CBOT stock index futures’ daily price limits methodology with the rule changes in the underlying markets:

  • Implementation of daily price limits on stock index futures contracts (switching from the quarterly price limits currently used)
  • Application of daily price limits each day starting at 5:00 p.m. CT.
  • Reference price for daily price limits for the next trade date based on the 3:00 p.m. CT futures price:
    • Width of the equity index futures price limit band is based on the underlying cash equity index closing value.
    • Daily stock index futures price limits are published on the CME Group website prior to the CME Globex open at 5:00 p.m. CT.

For more information, visit cmegroup.com/eqpricelimits

 

Continue reading “Futures Trading Levels and Economic Reports for April 11, 2013”

Trading Levels and Reports for July 17, 2012

Jump to a section in this post:

1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Economic Reports for Monday July 17, 2012

Hello Traders,

WORTH SHARING…from my colleague Dave Register of www.ExitPoints.com

The seven deadly sins for futures traders

 

1)      Overtrading or underfunding your account

2)      Chasing performance

3)      Using an over optimized system

4)      Failure to Always use Stop loss orders

5)      Commissions too high

6)      Large slippage in illiquid markets

7)      Emotional Trading

 

 

Visit their blog to learn about trading ideas on weekly basis and let us know if you would like more information about their trading system!

Continue reading “Trading Levels and Reports for July 17, 2012”

Daily Chart of April Crude Oil Futures

 

Jump to a section in this post:
1. Market Commentary
2. Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000
3. Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Support and Resistance Levels – March Corn, March Wheat, Jan Beans, March Silver
5.Economic Report for February 28, 2012

Hello Traders,

While our stock indices markets ( SP, Dow, NASDAQ and Russell ) been trading in very narrow range ( today was a small exception), the crude oil market continues to show the double edge volatility day-traders are looking for.

Below is a daily chart of April Crude oil futures.
PS: Stock index futures have shown in the past tendency to go through periods of low volatility and then change to periods of high volatility. The VIX index is a good indicator, which i will try to share more about tomorrow but my point is, be ready for shift in volatility and wider ranges on stock indices….as always, the question is when.

CLE - Crude light (Globex), Equalized Active Daily Continuation
CLE – Crude light (Globex), Equalized Active Daily Continuation

Continue reading “Daily Chart of April Crude Oil Futures”