Video: Projecting possible targets when trading futures
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The December 18th week is the second to last before the week between Christmas and New Years.
It may be hard to find much to get markets excited about now that the final FOMC meeting of 2023 is out of the way.
Confidence is high that the Fed is done raising rates in this cycle, which makes the economic outlook more certain and one which includes rate cuts sooner or later. Most of the data from this point forward is probably backward looking, This weeks GDP is the final iteration from the BEA Bureau of Economic Analysis for Q3 after a knock the barn door off 2nd revision last month increase of 5.2 percent. We will see early Thursday morning if the second iteration was correct.
Because the housing numbers this week are also backward looking, the data will be reflective of a time period where the mortgage rates had been at their highest levels in over 25 years. Mortgage rates have come down a few shades since the late summer and fall peaks of over 7 1/2%. As of this writing, the 30-year fixed can be had for under 7 through some outlets for the most credit worthy home buyers.
Housing starts, Existing home sales and New home sales, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday. The probability of a .25 point fed funds ease for the Fed’s March meeting is currently @ 63.4 % per the CME’s Fedwatch tool. The FOMC has a January meeting scheduled, but no February event.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
March Copper completed its first upside PriceCount objective early this month and corrected. Now, the chart is attempting to resume its rally where new sustained highs would project a run to the second count in the 4.03 area, consistent with a challenge of the September high.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Stock Index December contracts (i.e., E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, December 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any December futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Dec. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
FRONT MONTH IS NOW MARCH , the symbol is H24, example for mini SP is ESH24
Monday, December 18th is Last Trading Day for December currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all December futures contracts by Friday, December 15th and to start trading the March futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for March is ‘H.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
US$ Daily Chart below:
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The tea leaves in recent weeks – measures of the U.S. economy and beyond – were already indicating the Fed. would leave interest rates alone for the third straight time, maintaining the target range of 5.25% to 5.5%, after holding its last FOMC meeting of the year today. So was the benchmark prediction gauge: the Fed Funds futures contract. Yes, there were a handful of softer data: household net worth and job openings declined, overdue loan payments and credit card balances rose, European data pointed to that region’s recovery easing off and China’s is still stuck in a ditch. At the same time, the monthly non-farm payrolls report came in better than expectations with average hourly earnings and working hours rising and the unemployment rate falling. The disposition of the Fed’s individual members’ expectations for future rate policy, commonly referred to as its “dot plot,” projected that they will lower borrowing costs to 4.6 percent by the end of 2024. That call for lower rates was widespread: not a single Fed official expected interest rates to be higher at the end of next year. Still, policymakers did not firmly declare victory. They kept alive the possibility of further rate increases if inflation should prove stubborn.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The following are my PERSONAL OPINION on trading during FOMC days:
Reduce trading size
Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 4425.00 with a stop at 4419.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 4419.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
The rate announcement comes out exactly at 1 PM central. As of this morning there is a 98% chance of no change in rates.
Traders will pay EXTRA attention to the language and the Q&A which starts at 1:30 PM Central
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Tuesday morning the telling CPI number will be released early, 7:30 am CST.
Past volatility in index markets as a result of earnings will take a back seat to much anticipated economic numbers this week. We will have a few earnings releases after the close but the highlights for the indices, bonds, crypto, metals and yes even the energy complex may hinge on the CPI and PPI numbers in addition to the somewhat surprising Non Farm Payroll numbers on Friday that reflected uncommon and persistent strength in the wake of the longest string of interest rate increases in 40 years.
PPI Wednesday 7:30 am CST
Any deviation from the consensus will move markets in unnatural ways. The same for the PPI on Wednesday morning and the FED voting members will have a clearer picture of their desires in March, something we will be listening for in the language Chairman Powell uses on Wednesday when he hosts his final for the year Q and A 30 minutes after the Rate decision is announced. That decision is expected to be a no rate change with the CME FedWatch tool weighing in today as a 98.4% probability for rates to remain untouched.
ADBE will be reporting Earnings after the close Wednesday and Costco after the close on Thursday.
Inventories, jobless claims retail sales all early Thursday morning and Friday, a few more data points to throw into the mix. Capacity utilization and Industrial production, all sectors that are dependent on the cost of money.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
Futures Trading Levels
*NOTE: if you like to get the March stock index levels (NQ, ES etc.), please reply back to this email and we will send you the levels for March tomorrow morning!
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Volume in the December contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, December 15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any December futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Dec. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.
FRONT MONTH IS NOW MARCH , the symbol is H24, example for mini SP is ESH24
Monday, December 18th is Last Trading Day for December currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all December futures contracts by Friday, December 15th and to start trading the March futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.
The month code for March is ‘H.’ Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.
Watch the video below on how to rollover your market depth and charts!
Trading Resource of the Week
Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course
Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
The March Wheat – Corn spread accelerated to its third upside PriceCount objective to the $1.52 area and is consolidating its trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for around $2.27 which would be consistent with a challenge of the summer high.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
It seems like no futures markets are more focused on trading off expectations than those of interest rate futures, like the 10-year T-note and 30-year T-bond. And those expectations are more focused on one source of information more than any other: the words and actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank’s governors and current chairman, Jerome Powell. The Fed. board’s governors’ words are incessantly parsed for any clues as to the future direction of interest rate policy. Each coming Federal Open Market Committee meeting becomes the latest most important meeting in memory and next week’s is no exception. The U.S. economy is slowing; there are signs inflation is falling and the Fed has kept interest rates steady – at a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the highest since 2001 – through its last two meetings after raising rates at the conclusion of eleven consecutive meetings before that. If “three is a trend,” and if the Fed. holds interest rates steady (widely forecast) look for the futures markets to pile on to the already-shifting expectation that a rate cut is coming sooner than later. As is customary, Chair Powell will likely try to communicate that the Central Bank’s job of controlling inflation is ongoing and any decision on the future of interest rates – up, down, or steady – will be based on broad definitive proof of the need to act, or not. Next week’s meeting is a 2-day affair, with the announcement scheduled for Wednesday at 1:00 P.M. Central Time, followed by Chair Powell’s press conference. Stay tuned.
Energy:
Already entering today’s trading on a 4-day losing streak, crude oil futures extended its sell-off which as of this typing broke through $70.00 per barrel to an intra-day low of $69.11, its lowest price since July 3 (basis the January contract).
While today’s weekly Energy Information Administration report showed crude inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels, far exceeding the 1.4 million-barrel drop analysts had expected, U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 5.4 million barrels last week, more than five times the 1 million-barrel rise analysts expected.
News concerning “the elephant in the room” – China’s economic health – also pressed down on prices. Yesterday, rating agency Moody’s lowered the outlook on China’s A1 rating from stable to negative.
Getting help from the currency market, the U.S. dollar stayed on its upward rebound from 3+ month lows of last week to a two-week high. For all things dollar denominated – particularly globally traded commodities – a rising dollar pressures demand by making purchases more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
