Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Friday September 30, 2016
Two pointers for tomorrow:
1. While I mostly discuss e-minis, crude oil, gold and bonds for day trading….I do follow about another 15 active futures markets, including the grains ( corn, wheat, beans, bean meal and more). Big reports for the grains tomorrow. here is a quick outlook from AgWeb:
Analysts expect Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks report to show a slight increase in ending stocks, according to Rich Nelson, chief strategist for Allendale, a marketing firm in McHenry, Ill.
“We’re not expecting a big jump in ending stocks,” he says. “We don’t expect major changes.”
However, the report could be bearish if it shows a bigger-than-expected increase in ending stocks, according to some analysts. The report is based on a survey of farmers taken around Sept. 1, the end of the old crop year.
“This report puts the final stamp on the old crop marketing year,” Nelson says.
Allendale estimates old crop corn at 1.728 billion bushels, which is lower than the Sept. 12 USDA estimate of 1.915 billion bushels. The firm estimates old crop soybeans at 214 million bushels, higher than the USDA estimate of 195 million bushels.
“We suggest that USDA missed estimates on corn exports and ethanol,” Nelson says. “We look for a moderate increase in old crop soybeans,” he adds, pointing to the fact that Allendale estimates weaker soybean demand and less domestic crush than USDA.
Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect Sept. 1 corn stocks to come in at 1.754 billion bushels, soybeans at 200 million bushels and wheat stocks at 2,438 million bushels.
2. Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month and quarter! pay attention as certain markets will experience higher volatility. I wrote the following on the bonds market based on my years of observations:
Tomorrow is the last trading day of the month. Certain markets will experience certain trading behavior on the last trading day of the month.
Bonds are known to make some sharp moves right around 1:30 Central time ( 30 minutes before what used to be the pit close)
Here is a bond chart from last month’s last trading day….Pay attention to the WIDE range during the whole day and the large moves in the last 30 minutes! (vertical line marked)
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Levels for Trade Date of 9.30.2016
|Contract Dec. 2016||SP500||Nasdaq100||Dow Jones||Mini Russell||Dollar Index|
|Contract||Dec. Gold||Dec. Silver||Nov. Crude Oil||Dec. Bonds||Dec. Euro|
|Resistance 3||1340.3||19.80||50.23||171 28/32||1.1340|
|Resistance 2||1334.9||19.63||49.27||170 28/32||1.1314|
|Resistance 1||1329.5||19.39||48.51||170 8/32||1.1285|
|Support 1||1318.7||18.98||46.79||168 20/32||1.1231|
|Support 2||1313.3||18.81||45.83||167 20/32||1.1205|
|Contract||Dec. Corn||Dec. Wheat||Nov. Beans||Dec. SoyMeal||Nov. Nat Gas|
German Retail Sales m/m
Nationwide HPI m/m
French Consumer Spending m/m
French Prelim CPI m/m
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
Final GDP q/q
Index of Services 3m/3m
Revised Business Investment q/q
CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y
Italian Prelim CPI m/m
Core PCE Price Index m/m
Personal Spending m/m
Personal Income m/m
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
Revised UoM Inflation Expectations