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More Volatility Ahead! 11.03.2016

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1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday November 3, 2016


BOE rate decision tomorrow and monthly unemployment numbers this Friday, so more volatility ahead!

Press Release

Release Date: November 2, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and growth of economic activity has picked up from the modest pace seen in the first half of this year. Although the unemployment rate is little changed in recent months, job gains have been solid. Household spending has been rising moderately but business fixed investment has remained soft. Inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation have moved up but remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Inflation is expected to rise to 2 percent over the medium term as the transitory effects of past declines in energy and import prices dissipate and the labor market strengthens further. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced. The Committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments.

Against this backdrop, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1/4 to 1/2 percent. The Committee judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen but decided, for the time being, to wait for some further evidence of continued progress toward its objectives. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. In light of the current shortfall of inflation from 2 percent, the Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected progress toward its inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.

The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way. This policy, by keeping the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Stanley Fischer; Jerome H. Powell; Eric Rosengren; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were: Esther L. George and Loretta J. Mester, each of whom preferred at this meeting to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 1/2 to 3/4 percent.

Implementation Note issued November 2, 2016

2016 Monetary Policy Releases


Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Futures Trading Levels

Levels for Trade Date of 11.03.2016

Contract Dec. 2016 SP500 Nasdaq100 Dow Jones Mini Russell Dollar Index
Resistance 3 2122.50 4814.33 18083 1187.00 98.40
Resistance 2 2114.50 4791.42 18022 1180.70 98.10
Resistance 1 2103.25 4756.33 17948 1170.30 97.78
Pivot 2095.25 4733.42 17887 1164.00 97.48
Support 1 2084.00 4698.33 17813 1153.60 97.16
Support 2 2076.00 4675.42 17752 1147.30 96.86
Support 3 2064.75 4640.33 17678 1136.90 96.54
Contract Dec. Gold Dec. Silver Dec. Crude Oil Dec. Bonds Dec.   Euro
Resistance 3 1329.2 19.11 47.86 165 2/32 1.1219
Resistance 2 1319.3 18.93 47.17 164 16/32 1.1181
Resistance 1 1308.3 18.72 46.35 163 29/32 1.1147
Pivot 1298.4 18.54 45.66 163 11/32 1.1109
Support 1 1287.4 18.33 44.84 162 24/32 1.1074
Support 2 1277.5 18.15 44.15 162 6/32 1.1036
Support 3 1266.5 17.94 43.33 161 19/32 1.1002
Contract Dec. Corn Dec. Wheat Jan. Beans Dec. SoyMeal Dec. Nat Gas
Resistance 3 356.0 429.6 1006.58 315.70 2.97
Resistance 2 353.3 424.9 1001.17 313.50 2.93
Resistance 1 349.8 421.3 993.83 310.10 2.86
Pivot 347.0 416.7 988.42 307.90 2.82
Support 1 343.5 413.1 981.1 304.5 2.8
Support 2 340.8 408.4 975.67 302.30 2.71
Support 3 337.3 404.8 968.33 298.90 2.64


All times are Eastern time Zone (EST)

Date 3:56pm Currency Impact Detail Actual Forecast Previous Graph
ThuNov 3  4:00am EUR
Spanish Unemployment Change
77.3K 22.8K
5:00am EUR
ECB Economic Bulletin
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
11.4% 11.4%
5:30am GBP
Services PMI
52.5 52.6
6:00am EUR
Unemployment Rate
10.0% 10.1%
EU Membership Court Ruling
Tentative EUR
French 10-y Bond Auction
7:30am USD
Challenger Job Cuts y/y
8:00am GBP
BOE Inflation Report
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes
0-0-9 0-0-9
Monetary Policy Summary
Official Bank Rate
0.25% 0.25%
Asset Purchase Facility
435B 435B
MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes
0-0-9 0-0-9
8:30am GBP
BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Unemployment Claims
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q
1.7% -0.6%
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q
1.6% 4.3%
9:45am USD
Final Services PMI
54.8 54.8
10:00am USD
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
56.2 57.1
Factory Orders m/m
0.2% 0.2%
10:30am USD
Natural Gas Storage
4:55pm GBP
MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

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