The consumer Price index was released today and offered another insight into inflation. Inflationary spikes maybe a thing of the past. Was it in line with expectations? 2.8 %? . the actual release? 2.7 % was all the fuel the equities need to rally to all-time highs in the Nasdaq 100 Index 23930.00, the S&P fell just shy of it’s July 31st all time high , as of this writing, the price is 6465.00 (still a few hours to go in the trading day).

Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem has reported that this year’s summer humidity index East of the Rockies , calculated using morning dewpoints have been the highest readings since the data has been accumulated. Conversely, according to Weather West “In fact, in some specific locations, the May-mid July 2025 period has been among the coldest in the past 30-40 years (meaning, for some younger folks in the Bay Area, this might be the coolest start to any summer in their living memory). It has been chilly, unusually windy, and often cloudy under a very persistent marine layer in these regions.”     These weather anomalies can certainly impact the crops we grow to feed the world.

Today the World Agriculture Supply /Demand Estimates were released and it appears east of the Rockies is generating a record corn crop. Average corn yield is forecast at a record high 188.8 bushels per acre, up 9.5 bushels from last year. NASS also forecasts record high yields in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, and Wisconsin. As of Aug. 3, 73% of this year’s corn crop was reported in good or excellent condition, 6 percentage points above the same time last year.

Click here for Seasonal Spread Cheat Sheet!

Soybean yields are expected to average a record high 53.6 bushels per acre, up 2.9 bushels from 2024. If realized, the forecasted yields in Arkansas, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia will be record highs.

We trade these markets; in many cases we put on seasonal bull or bear spreads. We created a PDF for those traders interested in reviewing strategies to potentially capitalize on seasonal price movements between front months (old crop) vs deferred months (new crop) for grain and oilseed contracts. One benefit is these tend to carry lower initial margin requirements.

Click here for Seasonal Spread Cheat Sheet!

We will be happy to walk you through and answer any questions, just give us a call.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data: EIA Crude Stocks

FED: 3 speakers

Earnings: Tencent, Cisco

Tariff news:  Anything goes!