Volatility

Quiet Start to the Week—Volatility Ahead with Powell & PMI

volatility

️ Monday Market Brief – August 18, 2025

Low Volume, Calm Waters… Before the Storm?

Today’s trading session opened with notably light volume across major asset classes—a familiar rhythm for an August Monday. With many market participants still in vacation mode and key macro events on the horizon, it’s no surprise we’re seeing range-bound price action and muted volatility.

That calm won’t last long. By Thursday, the tempo is expected to shift dramatically as a wave of economic data hits the tape. PMI reports and the Philadelphia Fed survey will headline the day, offering fresh clues on growth and inflation trends. Then on Friday, all eyes will turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks following the Jackson Hole symposium—a moment that often sets the tone for monetary policy heading into Q4.

Trading Insight

Recognizing the type of day ahead—like today’s low-volatility, sideways grind—can dramatically improve your tactical edge. In environments like this, fading the extremes of volume or volatility bands (buying the lows, selling the highs) tends to outperform breakout strategies. Of course, it’s always easier to see the ideal play in hindsight—but developing that intraday awareness is a skill worth sharpening.

Stay nimble, stay curious, and keep your powder dry for the back half of the week.

Joseph Easton, breaks down trading options in ten easy steps.

December Oats

December oats are showing some stability after satisfying their second downside PriceCount objective earlier this month. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the third count would project a possible run to the $3.18 area which is consistent with a test of the contract low.

And that’s December Oats for you, Traders! Make it a great trading week!

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Aug 19th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.