Overnight moves in metals, crude oil, natural gas and other markets were quite extreme!
We suspect that with the Iran situation, govt. shutdown, metals volatility – we will see more of that the rest of the week.
Risk management becomes just as important if not more than the actual directional bias of the market.
Weekly Market update:
Trump picks Kevin Warsh to lead the US Federal Reserve. The Warsh nomination triggered a jump in the dollar. Warsh was appointed by President George W. Bush as Fed governor from 2006-2011 and is considered a Wall Street veteran due to his time at Morgan Stanley.
Last year Warsh warned that U.S. fiscal policy was on a “dangerous trajectory” due to “irresponsible spending” and called for “regime change” at the Federal Reserve. Analysts have characterized Warsh as a practical pick who is less dovish than some of the other candidates, though he may be in favor of some near-term cuts.
Stock Indices
We had a volatile week, with a heavy flow of earnings. Both indices SPX & NASDAQ rallied for the first half of the week, then gave it all back during the back half of the week. The Cboe Volatility index (VIX) ramped up and nearly hit 20 on an intraday basis yesterday, following a post-earnings tech-fueled sell-off.
My takeaway from this week volatility and the fact that metals such as Gold and Silver were hit hard leads me to believe were at Risk Off mode until proven otherwise. I may be wrong as I always say there are two sides to a coin. Will see how all this develops, in the meantime traders will enjoy the volatility and these price swings as long as they use proper risk management. I will be looking at –
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Earnings and economic reports.
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Geopolitical issues
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When will the market test the new FED chairman
S&P 500 companies reported earnings this week, and the results continued to convey a healthy economy. Out of the 165 S&P 500 companies that have reported results, 60% have beat on the top line while 79% have beat on the bottom line. Revenue growth has been +7.43% year-over-year while earnings-per-share (EPS) growth is tracking at 15.31%, though we are only one-third of the way through the earnings season. For reference, FactSet is currently forecasting 8.2% EPS growth in Q4 for the entire S&P 500.
Federal Reserve conducted one of its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings this week, though it really didn’t contain any surprises. As expected, rates were left unchanged, and Chairman Jerome Powell conveyed that monetary policy remains near an appropriate level given the firm economy. Of course, their view is subject to change based on future data.
Trading in silver options surpassed NASDAQ options this week. On Friday Silver fell over 31% and Gold 11%. Crashes usually happen due to margin calls and forced selling. The 50 Day moving average is sitting at $74 and the 200 day moving average is sitting at $48.46. Platinum and palladium also ended the day down double digits on the day.
Kith Lerner downgraded Gold on Thursday stating reason was Gold traded 40% above its 200 day moving average that’s the most extended since the 80’s. Silver was up 60% for the month, and was more than 140% above its 200 day moving average. Silver broke out from $55.
Bitcoin is trading around 78 thousand.
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