Technical Analysis Weekly Market Update
By Eli Levy, Senior Analyst
Equities
The rally for U.S. equities closed the week higher yet again, marking the 3rd consecutive weekly gain after five straight weekly declines before that. It was a fast and remarkable rally, to say the least. WTI crude is down 12% and the VIX has pulled back to 17. Uncertainty around Iran, oil prices, and the potential economic fallout hasn’t fully dissipated — but markets are trading as if the war is effectively over and any oil price shock will prove short-lived.
Q1 First Week
The first week of Q1 earnings backed up the momentum right on cue. When S&P futures touched the all-time high, I looked for the catalyst that could push them through that ATH — and I saw the Magnificent 7 were still well below their own ATHs. Given their weighting in the index, the Mag 7 catching up could be the catalyst. Keep an eye on them.
Economic Calendar
The economic calendar was light; the one notable print was March PPI coming in well below estimates. Tech again showed relative strength across both AI infrastructure names and software — the PHLX Semiconductor Index (SOX) is trading at fresh all-time highs, and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Select ETF (IGV) gained 15% on the week.
Big Banks
Big banks kicked off earnings on an encouraging note. Only 46 S&P 500 names have reported so far, but of those 69% beat on the top line and 80% on the bottom line. Q1 revenue growth is tracking at 13.21% and EPS growth at 32.12% — strong early numbers, but with so little of the index reported it’s too soon to draw firm conclusions. ES futures ripped through every key resistance level — reclaiming the 200-, 100-, 50- and 20-day moving averages.
Final Notes
There is no meaningful resistance left on my charts except for the trendline on the SPX chart. I don’t know if we get a pullback, consolidate here, or keep melting up — but chasing all-time highs is not suitable for the faint of heart.
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