New Highs and New Lows…..

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Traders, keep an eye out for market movement across asset classes for trading opportunities – including beyond those markets you’re typically focused on.  With dozens of commodities available for trading on the major U.S. futures exchanges, there’s potential out there.

Softs: 

Among the market sectors most traders follow closely, “Softs” is not high up the list.  Yet similarly to other well-known futures contracts such as stock indexes, interest rate futures, energies, metals and grains, the softs category includes some of the world benchmarks for their underlying commodity, such as cocoa, coffee, orange juice and sugar.

As well, we’re seeing recent price movement in some of these commodities that can be described as exceptional.  For example, it’s not hyperbole to say that the price of March cocoa has skyrocketed over the last month – from both sides of ±$4,200/ton coming into the new year to today’s $5,410/ton close.  That’s a ±$12,000 per contract move (contract size: 10 metric tons).  This is an all-time high for the contract.

Monthly Cocoa Chart for your review below!

After trading up to its own all-time highs above $4.00/lb. around mid-Nov., March orange juice sliced (pun intended) ±25% of its contract value, down below $3.00/lb. by mid-Jan with a $2.9065 close on Jan. 16.  This is a ±$15,000 move.  Yet this sell-off was brief as the contract then surged ±$1.00 back to today’s 10-cent up limit close of $3.9095, another ±$15,000 per contract move – in 16 trading days.

Indexes: 

Telling of all-time-highs would be lacking today without mentioning the E-mini S&P 500 and E-mini Nasdaq.  As of this typing the March E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is trading up ±40 points, nearly 10 points above Monday’s intraday high and ±15 points above the 5000 threshold.  As well, the March E-mini NASDAQ has made a ±200-point move up to its own all-time highs at ±17,850.  For the E-mini S&P 500, this marks a ±$40,000 per contract move since its last recent low back on Oct. 27.

Energy: 

In a comparison of contrasts, March natural gas settled below $2.00 today to set a new life-of-contract low and furthering a ±$4,000 per contract move in less than a month – with scarcely a retort by bulls.

Daily Levels for February 8th, 2024

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.