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Category: Charts & Indicators
Rate Cut, Nov. Feeder Cattle, Trading Psychology, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Must-Knows for Trading Futures the week of October 27th, 2025
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Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course“You must understand that there is more than one path to the top of the mountain.”- Miyamoto Musashi, A Book of Five Rings: The Classic Guide to StrategyMany experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn: · How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back · Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience · The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses · Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality · Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage · Creating effective trading technique strategies · Qualities of Successful Traders START FREE COURSE NOW |
Hot Market of the Week
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
Free Trial Available
November Feeder Cattle

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.
It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Algorithmic Precision Trading, December Soymeal, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 24th, 2025
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At-a-Glance Levels
| Instrument | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) | 4035.77 | 4083.83 | 4127.67 | 4175.73 | 4219.57 | ||
| Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) | 46.88 | 47.71 | 48.47 | 49.30 | 50.05 | ||
| Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) | 58.60 | 60.12 | 61.16 | 62.68 | 63.72 | ||
| Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 | 46437 | 46669 | 46831 | 47063 | 47225 |
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Futures FYI: Metals, Stock Index Futures, Energies, Dec-March Corn Spread, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 23rd, 2025
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Gov’t Shutdown Continues, Impact on Traders’ Reports, Blackout & Volatility, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 22nd, 2025
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Overnight Edge, December Mini Dow, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 21st, 2025
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At-a-Glance Levels
| Instrument | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) | 4173.40 | 4285.40 | 4341.70 | 4453.70 | 4510.00 | ||
| Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) | 49.49 | 50.65 | 51.24 | 52.40 | 52.99 | ||
| Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) | 55.32 | 56.16 | 56.79 | 57.63 | 58.26 | ||
| Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 | 46087 | 46503 | 46733 | 47149 | 47379 |
Over the past few months, and especially in recent weeks, we’ve seen unusually large overnight moves. Some moves appear random, others reverse quickly, and some are driven by headlines such as tariff news. These dynamics have increased gap risk, reduced overnight liquidity, and produced frequent open-time dislocations.
Common question
Where is the edge?
Short answer
- Trade the first 30 minutes and focus on short-term gap-fill or rejection setups.
- Use same-day options when you expect a large directional move to limit tail risk and avoid being stopped out only to see the market move in your favor.
- Trade spreads when relative strength diverges across instruments (for example, gold vs silver or mini-Dow vs ES).
Extended answer
I want to focus on the practical elements of trading like pre-market context, move behavior, market news correlation, liquidity, options limits, and whether to use mean reversion or momentum. I’ll also want to highlight key parts like risk management, stop placement, and position sizing. Planning should be direct with a simple checklist and no more than six sections. I should also consider using a relevant citation about tariff-related movements, but just one, and make sure it’s only placed where necessary. No framing or extra explanations.
Futures day-trading edge
You find edge by matching a repeatable hypothesis to the current market regime, then executing it with strict risk and execution rules.
Regime diagnosis (what the market is doing now)
- Volatility regime: large overnight gaps and erratic premarket prints mean the market is in a news-driven, headline-sensitive volatility regime.
- Catalyst profile: moves are often tied to macro headlines and tariff noise; those headlines create directional gaps that either persist into the session or sharply reverse at the open.
- Liquidity profile: overnight liquidity is thin and fragmented, increasing slippage and fake outs at the open.
Reliable, tradeable edges you can use
- Pre-open directional bias with size filter. Trade opens when overnight gap exceeds a threshold (e.g., 0.5% or X ticks) and pre-market order flow confirms (sustained prints, not one-off sweep).
- Use reduced size and wider stops for gaps caused by headline noise.
- Fade headline gap into first 30 minutes when structure is weakIf gap lacks follow-through volume and price fails to make a clean microstructure breakout, favor mean reversion to the first-tail or VWAP.
- Trend-follow breakouts in high conviction regimeWhen overnight move is accompanied by aligned macro flow (rates, FX, commodities) and volume ramps into the open, follow momentum with a continuation plan.
- Volatility arbitrage playsUse options or calendar spreads where available to sell realized volatility after spikes and buy protection around known headline windows.
- Session-timing edgeTrade smaller and tighter in the first 15–30 minutes after the open; increase size after the market establishes structure (first clean high/low and confirmation).
- Microstructure edge: limit vs market tacticsUse passive limit entries near structural levels and aggressive exits into liquidity. Avoid market entries into thin pre-open auction prints.
Concrete execution rules (checklist)
- Pre-market checklist: identify gap size, top 3 headlines, correlated markets (bonds, FX, oil), and pre-open volume trend.
- Entry rules: require either structural confirmation (higher high / lower low) or a mean-reversion setup with defined edge-to-risk ratio ≥ 2:1.
- Sizing: reduce notional by 25–50% on headline-driven nights; increase only after two clean consecutive edges are realized.
- Stops and targets: place stop where edge invalidates (clearly definable price level); scale out at predefined targets; never trade without a stop.
- Slippage buffer: add tick buffer to stops and profit targets during thin liquidity opens.
How to test and keep the edge
- Backtest regime-specific rules: label historical sessions by overnight gap size and headline events, test mean-reversion vs momentum rules separately.
- Forward-test with small capital: run a two-week rolling simulator and log slippage, win rate, and expectancy.
- Adaptive rules: codify a volatility threshold that switches you between momentum and fade strategies automatically.
Brief trade plan template
- Hypothesis: (e.g., “Overnight tariff headline caused a 0.7% gap that lacks confirmatory volume; first 20 minutes will mean-revert to VWAP.”)
- Entry: limit at VWAP + X ticks or on 1-minute reversal candle.
- Stop: invalidation beyond the overnight high/low + slippage buffer.
- Target: partial at VWAP, final at first structure level.
- Size: 50% normal when gap driver = headline; full size only when macro alignment confirmed.
Be systematic: diagnose regime, pick the strategy that historically wins in that regime, enforce execution and risk rules, and iterate from measured data.
Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.
The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.
Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
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Less Data amidst Gov’t Shutdown, NEW WEBINAR, Dec. Crude Oil, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of October 20th, 2025
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Volatility Tips, December Crude Oil, Bollinger Bands & Parabolics, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 17th, 2025
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Price Extremes: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; December KC Wheat, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 16th, 2025
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General:
Day 15 of the U.S Government shutdown.
Stock Index Futures:
Dec. stock index futures returned to solid gains late today as markets remained alert over US-China trade tensions and amid hopes for interest rate cuts and strong quarterly earnings results from Wall Street banks. Traders have cemented bets on a rate cut later this month, and odds of a rate cut in December have jumped in recent days to around 96% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool:
Prices Metals:
It’s the broken record metals report. Dec. gold futures rose to new all-time highs today – its 47th new record of the year – trading up to $4,235.80/ounce intraday.
Alongside gold, Dec. silver rocketed up nearly $2.00/oz. today to set its own all-time record high, trading intraday up to $52.55/ounce. This after yesterday when the contract took out a 45-year-old record closing price of $48.70/ounce, during the time when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.
Prices Energies:
November crude oil futures have remained on their lows this week – with a new multi-month intraday low of $58.20/barrel on continued concerns about oversupply and the possible impact on demand of rekindled U.S.-China trade tensions – its fourth day in a row closing below $60/barrel.
Livestock:
Dec. live cattle and Jan. feeder cattle both closed little changed today and within pennies of their own all-time record high closing prices at the close of trading yesterday. Tight supplies and strong feeder markets pushed cash cattle higher and the futures markets followed suit. The supply of cattle has lingered at a near 75-year low, with the closure of the US-Mexico border to Mexican cattle imports further constraining an already tight supply.
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Options Trading, All Time Highs for Gold/Silver, Spread Trading Webinar TOMORROW, Levels, Reports; Your 5 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 15th, 2025
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