USDA pegged this year’s planted corn acreage at 95.203 million acres, with soybeans at 83.380 million – both coming in slightly below USDA’s March 31 estimate and below the average pre-report trade guess. The soybean acreage may come in even lower in August, based on our expectations that the late wheat harvest will prevent some double-cropped soybeans to get planted.

That likely would not have fully been accounted for in this June 1 survey. All wheat acreage rose slightly, with small gains across the board for winter and spring wheat. None of these acreage numbers are really market movers, other than the fact that an even lower soybean acreage estimate leaves us more vulnerable to a weather scare.

The June 1 quarterly stocks survey results were relatively close to pre-report estimates as well, although both soybeans and wheat came in a bit higher than expected. The corn, soybean and wheat stocks estimate suggest less residual usage, which translates into less feed usage for wheat for the previous marketing year, with implications then for the current year as well.

That’s been a pattern for USDA in recent years, suggesting that perhaps it is under-estimating the size of U.S. wheat crops. But overall, this is one of the tamer June 30 sets of reports that I’ve seen in a while, with the market now moving on to trade weather, potential trade agreements, and biofuel policy.

USDA inspected 53.9 million bushels of corn for export in the week ending June 26, along with 8.3 million bushels of soybeans, 16 million bushels of wheat, and 0.4 million bushels of grain sorghum. Marketing year to date export inspections total 2.163 billion bushels, up 490 million bushels or 29% from the previous year’s pace, and up 138 million bushels from the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target for the marketing year that ends on August 31.

As such, look for USDA to increase its old-crop corn export target again in its July WASDE crop report, although the trade is now focused on new crop growing conditions. The gap continues to grow week to week. Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total 1.685 billion bushels, up 158 million bushels or 10% from the previous year’s pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s target by 66 million bushels, but that gap continues to shrink each week.