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Category: Commodity Trading

Investment is a game of money of securing future money by taking a risk today. Trading therefore comes with a list of rules to play by. Commodity trading in particular offers tremendous potential for becoming a completely different asset class.

However, before investing in any kind of commodity, you must do an in depth research and also ask your broker as many questions as possible. Through this category archive we provide you as much information and valuable insights into the world of commodity trading.

We at Cannon Trading are here to help you with your commodity trading needs. You as a trader should select your commodity trading advisor only after performing a due diligence on him/her. We in fact do that for you. This way, you get only the best advice to help you with your commodity trading.

We’ve got the information that you might need at every step of commodity trading, and you’ll find it all right here in the commodity trading section of our blog. Read up, and read on to get equipped!

Weekly Newsletter: Understanding Margins, May Bean Meal Outlook and Automated NQ System

Posted on by Ilan
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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

C31

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1186

In this issue:
  •  Important Notices – Good Friday Trading Schedule
  • Trading Resource of the Week – Understanding Margins
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Meal
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ Intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Notices –

  • 4 Day Trading week, All Mkts closed Good Friday (MKTS closed from Thursday afternoon until Sunday Afternoon)
  • 6 Data releases: New home sales, Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence, GDP (Q4 final), Jobless Claims, Chicago PMI
  • Grain traders! Big Prospective plantings report Thursday Morning.
  • Night Traders, WATCHOUT for volatility Wednesday and Sunday. Fed Speaker Waller: Econ. Outlook 6PM EDT. Jerome Powell Friday Morning 11:30 EDT @SF Monetary Policy Conference.

 

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Trading Resource of the Week : Understanding Margins by CMEgroup.com

Understanding Margin

Securities margin is the money you borrow as a partial down payment, up to 50% of the purchase price, to buy and own a stock, bond, or ETF. This practice is often referred to as buying on margin.
Futures margin is the amount of money that you must deposit and keep on hand with your broker when you open a futures position. It is not a down payment and you do not own the underlying commodity.
Futures margin generally represents a smaller percentage of the notional value of the contract, typically 3-12% per futures contract as opposed to up to 50% of the face value of securities purchased on margin.

Margins Move with the Markets

When markets are changing rapidly and daily price moves become more volatile, market conditions and the clearinghouses’ margin methodology may result in higher margin requirements to account for increased risk.
When market conditions and the margin methodology warrant, margin requirements may be reduced.

Types of Futures Margin

Initial margin is the amount of funds required by CME Clearing to initiate a futures position. While CME Clearing sets the margin amount, your broker may be required to collect additional funds for deposit.
Maintenance margin is the minimum amount that must be maintained at any given time in your account.
If the funds in your account drop below the maintenance margin level, a few things can happen:
  • You may receive a margin call where you will be required to add more funds immediately to bring the account back up to the initial margin level.
  • If you do not or can not meet the margin call, you may be able to reduce your position in accordance with the amount of funds remaining in your account.
  • Your position may be liquidated automatically once it drops below the maintenance margin level.

Summary

Futures margin is the amount of money that you must deposit and keep on hand with your broker when you open a futures position. It is not a down payment, and you do not own the underlying commodity.
The term margin is used across multiple financial markets. However, there is difference between securities margins and futures margins. Understanding these differences is essential, prior to trading futures contracts.

 

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  • Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Meal
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Bean Meal
May meal satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective and is correcting lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the second count would project a possible run to the 356.5 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
Mini NASDAQ 100
SYSTEM TYPE
Intraday
COST
USD 55 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$20,000
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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
S
No
S

 

Daily Levels for March 25th 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Your Futures Daily Blog: Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course

Posted on by Ilan



Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

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Get An Edge With the Trading Psychology Course

Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.

In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:

  • How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
  • Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
  • The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
  • Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
  • Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
  • Creating effective trading technique strategies
  • Qualities of Successful Traders

Grow Your Trading – Start Now!

 

 

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Daily Levels for March 22nd, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Markets Post FOMC + Levels for March 21st 2024

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

C6

 

 

Life After FOMC …..

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General: 

 

The Federal Reserve took center stage today.  With inflation proving stickier than expected, the central bank has found itself balancing between a hawkish and dovish view.  The policy-setting FOMC held interest rates steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range for the fifth straight meeting.  The bigger indicator traders were eager to see was the Fed governors’ so-called dot plot that updated their rate and economic projections – for the first time since December.  Turns out, it didn’t deviate from the three rate cuts they previously penciled in by the end of 2024.

 

Indexes: 

 

As of this typing, the June E-mini S&P 500 is trading at new all-time highs around 5280.  As well, the June E-mini Dow Jones is trading at its own all-time highs, barely 100 points away from 40,000!

 

Metals: 

 

April gold is on the verge of eking out its own all-time high close above last Monday’s closing price of $2,188.60 per ounce.  It’s currently trading ±$2,191.00 per ounce

 

General pt. II: 

 

Over the weekend, Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, marking a historic shift away from an aggressive monetary easing program that was implemented years ago to fight chronic deflation.  As part of the decision, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, lifting its short-term rate to “around zero to 0.1%” from minus 0.1%.

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

 

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for March 21st, 2024

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b0ba1776 c0cd 4536 92c1 eef6595d7173

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow + Levels for March 20th

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

C28

 

FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow

 

The last few FOMC meetings I looked for trades until around 930 AM Central time and then somewhat “took a step back”.

 

I would then follow closely around 1 PM Central when the announcement comes out but try to not pull the trigger until 1:15/ 1:30 when the smoke clears.

CURRENTLY the market is expecting no change in rates. Language will be watched closely.

 

This is of course just my personal preferences and every trader is different.

 

Take notes after the trading session so you can look back and refer the next FOMC meeting….

 

Below are some additional tips/observations I have taken notes of for myself:

 

·    Reduce trading size

 

·    Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade

 

·    Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 4425.00 with a stop at 4419.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 4419.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).

 

·    Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement

 

·    Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.

·    Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.

 

·    Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues

 

·    The rate announcement comes out exactly at 1 PM central. As of this morning there is a 98% chance of no change in rates.

 

·    Traders will pay EXTRA attention to the language and the Q&A which starts at 1:30 PM Central

 

·    Be patient and be disciplined

 

·    If in doubt, stay out!!

 

 

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

 

 

 

 

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Daily Levels for March 20th, 2024

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b0ba1776 c0cd 4536 92c1 eef6595d7173

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Spring has Sprung ! on the last day of winter, thoughts on this weeks Fed meeting + Levels for March 19th

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

C29

 

Spring has Sprung ! on the last day of winter, thoughts on this weeks Fed meeting:

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

This week, the biggest takeaways that will impact equity direction and prices will be in the form of FOMC Rates.. The post release discussion will be the more meaningful trading part of the day. The expectation of a zero rate change is nearly 100 % based on the CME FedWatch tool The market has discounted this result. a surprise would literally Shock the market. This FED’s ongoing call for transparency truly would set a rate change now on an equity destruction path is they were to raise rates given the relatively inflationary data releases since the last FOMC meeting. if you would like to geek out like i do on research, here is an interesting discussion The Fed – Macroeconomic news and stock prices over the FOMC cycle (federalreserve.gov) from the FRB , I bit dated but still relative to the current environment as it relaters to Data and how the Fed rates individual data releases in importance and the relative impact these data sets may have on Equity prices 100 being the most important.

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

 

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Daily Levels for March 19th, 2024

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b0ba1776 c0cd 4536 92c1 eef6595d7173

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
488a0de8 fca7 4416 8ec8 2280a1540fee

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: Understanding Price Banding, May Bean Oil Outlook and Automated Gold System

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

C27

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1186

In this issue:
  •  Important Notices – FOMC Next Week
  • Trading Resource of the Week – Understanding Price Limits and Banding
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Oil
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Gold Swing System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Notices –

  • FOMC Meeting next week. Announcement on Wednesday.
  • Light data most of the week. Housing sales
  • Very few earnings
  • June is front month for indices, currencies and financials.: M = June
  • USA is on daylight savings time – most international countries have NOT changed yet.

 

 

Trading Resource of the Week : What are Price Limits and Price Banding? by CMEgroup.com

As a trader, you want to know that there are mechanisms in place to ensure an orderly market. A regulated marketplace like CME Group provides this order by setting price limits and price banding.
Price Limits
Price limits are the maximum price range permitted for a futures contract in each trading session. These price limits are measured in ticks and vary from product to product. When markets hit the price limit, different actions occur depending on the product being traded. Some markets may temporarily halt until price limits can be expanded or trading may be stopped for the day based on regulatory rules. Different futures contracts will have different price limit rules; i.e. Equity Index futures have different rules than Agricultural futures.
Example
Equity Indexes futures have a three level expansion: 7%, 13% and 20% to the downside, and a 7% limit up and down in overnight trading.
When price reaches any of those levels the market will go limit up or limit down.
Calculating Price Limits
Price limits are re-calculated daily and remain in effect for all trading days except in certain physically-deliverable markets, where price limits are lifted prior to expiration so that futures prices are not prevented from converging on prices for the underlying commodity.
Typically, Agricultural futures will go limit up or down most often compared to Equity Index futures which very rarely if ever go limit up or down. When trading a specific product, it is important to be aware of price limits and the mechanisms that occur when limits are hit. Traders also know that it is possible for limits to be reached for more than one session in a row, however the expansion of limit thresholds over the last few years have reduced this occurrence.
Price Banding
Price banding is a similar mechanism which subjects all orders to price validation and rejects orders outside the given band to maintain orderly markets. Bands are calculated dynamically for each product based on the last price, plus or minus a fixed band value. Thus, if markets quickly move in one direction, the price bands dynamically adjust to accommodate new trading ranges.
Conclusion
The rules for each market can be found on cmegroup.com.
It is important to note that traders can place trades outside the daily price limits. These trades will be executed when price limits and price bands move within the specified range. So, traders still have the ability to place good-til-canceled or good-til-date orders inside and outside daily price limits.
In the last few years there are fewer and fewer times that markets will actually go limit up or down, but it is important to be aware of these pricing rules when you trade.
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  • Hot Market of the Week – May Bean Oil
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Bean Oil
The rally in May soybean oil accelerated to its second upside PriceCount objective and now the chart is correcting. At this point, IF you can resume the rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 50.87 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
Spartan Gold
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
COST
USD 75 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$20,000
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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
S
No
S

 

Daily Levels for March 18th 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Triple Witching Tomorrow + Futures trading Levels for March 15th

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

C26

 

TriPPPle witching tomorrow!

Stock Index March contracts (i.e., the E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, March15th (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading in these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any December futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, Mar. 15th, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.

FRONT MONTH IS NOW JUNE , the symbol is M24, example for mini SP is ESM24

 Monday, March 18th is Last Trading Day for December currency futures. It is of the utmost importance for currency traders to exit all March futures contracts by Friday, March 15th and to start trading the June futures. Currency futures are DELIVERABLE contracts.

The month code for June is ‘M.’  Please consider carefully how you place orders when changing over.

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

Watch video below on how to rollover from March to June contracts if you are a stock index trader on our E-Futures Platform!

 

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Daily Levels for March 15th, 2024

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b0ba1776 c0cd 4536 92c1 eef6595d7173

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

PPI & Retails Sales + Trading Levels for March 14th

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more by joining our Private Facebook Group!
Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

 

C13

 

 

Market Overview for the last 2 trading days of the week

By Mark O’Brien

Heads up:

 

Keep an eye out for the second of this week’s inflation reports: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.  The report will be released tomorrow, 7:30 A.M., Central Time.

 

Energy:   

 

This morning, the Energy Information Agency released its weekly crude oil stocks report and the data was a bullish curveball showing a surprise withdrawal in U.S. crude inventories and a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline stocks.  April RBOB gasoline futures rose over seven cents as of this typing – a ±$3,000 per contract move – up to ±$2.66 per gallon, close to 6-month highs.  Spurring the price increase, Ukrainian drone attacks struck several oil refining facilities in Russia for the second day, damaging its refining capacity

Metals:   

 

In concert with the month-long slump in the U.S. dollar and a lingering expectation the Fed will reduce borrowing costs this June, today gold is chipping away at its ±$20 sell-off Monday and poised to around its prior all-time high close (basis April): $2,188.60/oz.  As of this typing, April gold is ±$2,177.00.

 

Indexes: 

 

All three major stock indexes have sustained trading near their all-time highs this week – after the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Price Index on April 1st (the Fed’s preferred U.S. inflation gauge), February’s non-farm payrolls last Friday and Tuesday’s higher-than-expected CPI reading yesterday.  As of this typing, prices are mixed ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.

 

Softs: 

 

So far, the king of all-time highs this week is not Bitcoin (see below).  It’s Cocoa.  The May cocoa contract broke above $7,000/ton, nearly $2,000/ton higher over the last month – a ±$20,000 per contract move, including today’s 361-point ($3,6010) move today – with “no top in sight,” stated by The Hightower Report.

 

Crypto:

 

March Bitcoin futures are set to close at a new all-time high above 73,000 today.  With the Bitcoin ETF now trading, remember that the world’s largest futures and options exchange – the CME Group – offers Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures and options with efficient price discovery in transparent futures markets, prices based on the regulated CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) and easily traded on your supported trading platform.  Make it your choice for managing cryptocurrency risk.

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

Watch video below on how to rollover from March to June contracts if you are a stock index trader on our E-Futures Platform!

 

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Daily Levels for March 14th, 2024

ba6b69fd 31f1 4f9e becc c54c64c8a104

b0ba1776 c0cd 4536 92c1 eef6595d7173

Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Rollover, CPI & Futures Trading Levels for 03.12.24

Posted on by Ilan
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CPI Tomorrow – Trade June ES/NQ/YM and MICROS

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

For all of you index traders, you may have noticed the shrinking Open Interest and Volume in the March contracts. It’s that time when volume shifts to the next quarterly expiration contract. June! the symbol is M.

March volume will be drying up quickly, don’t get stuck Friday morning with a March contract at the crack of dawn when the carousel stops. Start trading the June contract today!

According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 has averaged an 0.8% move on CPI days over the past six months

Today, stocks are sideways, the dollar and gold are both up marginally as investors nervously await tomorrows 7:30 a.m. CDT Consumer Price Index release.

Last Month, on Feb 13th stocks slid sharply following the release and Treasury yields surged higher when a surprise CPI number, an Increase of 0.3% in January, crossed the newswires. Housing costs accounted for much of the price rise.

Overall prices are expected to rise 0.4% percent after increasing 0.3% percent in January. Annual rates, which in January were 3.1% percent overall and 3.9% percent for the core, are expected at 3.1% and 3.7% percent respectively. Per econoday.

 

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan

 

Watch video below on how to rollover from March to June contracts if you are a stock index trader on our E-Futures Platform!

 

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Daily Levels for March 12th, 2024

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Economic Reports
provided by: ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
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Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Weekly Newsletter: Understanding Open Interest, May Wheat Outlook and Automated System of the Week

Posted on by Ilan
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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1185

In this issue:
  • Important Notices – Change Your Clocks!
  • Trading Resource of the Week – Trade Alerts Via Email/Text
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Wheat
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – MidCap SP Swing System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Notices –

  • FED Blackout Period Begins Sat. 9th, lasts for 9 business days
  • A smattering of earnings. Mostly Microcap to Midcap: Adobe Reports
  • Tuesday and Thursday Data: CPI, Jobless claim , Retail sales and PPI
  • Begin Trading June indices if you haven’t already: M = June
  • Spring your Clocks forward for those countries that subscribe to Daylight Savings. 

 

 

Trading Resource of the Week : Understanding Open Interest by CMEgroup.com

Understanding Open Interest
Open interest is the total number of futures contracts held by market participants at the end of the trading day. It is used as an indicator to determine market sentiment and the strength behind price trends.
Unlike the total issued shares of a company, which typically remain constant, the number of outstanding futures contracts varies from day to day.
Open interest is calculated by adding all the contracts from opened trades and subtracting the contracts when a trade is closed.
For example, Sharon, Cynthia and Kurt are trading the same futures contract. If Sharon buys one contract to enter a long trade, open interest increases by one. Cynthia also goes long and buys six contracts, thereby increasing open interest to seven. If Kurt decides to short the market and sells three contracts, open interest again increases to 10.
Open interest would remain at 10 until the traders exit their positions, at which point open interest declines. For example, open interest declines to nine when Sharon sells one contract. When Kurt decides to exit his position, he buys back his three contracts and brings open interest down to six. At this point, until Cynthia decides to sell her six contracts, open interest will remain constant at six.
Open interest and volume are related concepts, one key difference is that volume counts all contracts that have been traded, while open interest is a total of contracts that remain open in the market.
Traders can think of open interest as the cash flowing to the market. As open interest increases, more money is moving into the futures contract and as open interest declines money is moving out of the futures contract.
CME Group products with the largest open interest include Eurodollars, Treasuries and stock index futures.
Open Interest Analysis
Analysts typically use open interest to confirm the strength of a trend. Increasing open interest is typically a confirmation of the trend whereas decreasing open interest can be a signal that the trend is losing strength.
The idea is that traders are supporting the trend by entering the market that increases the open interest. As traders lose faith in the trend they exit the market and open interest declines.
Open interest data is published at the end of each day. Additionally, every Friday afternoon, the CFTC publishes a report called the Commitment of Traders.
This report details open interest from different classes of market participants and whether they are holding a long or short position. This breakdown offers valuable insights into what producers, merchants, processors, users, swap dealers and money managers are doing in the market for a futures contract.
Open interest is one variable that many futures traders use in their analysis of the markets used in conjunction with other analysis to support trade decisions. Large changes in open interest can be an indicator when certain participants are entering or leaving the market and may give clues to market direction.
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  • Hot Market of the Week – May Wheat
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
May Wheat
May wheat in Chicago broke down into a new contract low yesterday where the chart satisfied its third downside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF you can sustain further weakness, we are left with the low percentage fourth objective to aim for around $4.20.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
MidCap SP
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
COST
USD 110 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$50,000
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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
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Daily Levels for March 11th 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.

Explore trading methods. Register Here

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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.