Here is a subject that a lot of people don’t understand at all. Day Trading can be risky. So, it is something that you should stay away from unless and until you are absolutely sure about what you are doing.
There are a number of items about Day Trading such as the minimum mantaince requirementand more that need to be taken into consideration. With the blogs and write-ups listed in this section, you can learn a great deal about day trading.
We at Cannon Trading can help you understand the different concepts of trading and present you with the latest information on the same. Our team of professional and smart people can help you in your day trading transactions and more. In order to understand day trading more clearly, we advise that you go through all the write-ups listed in this category archive on Day Trading.
Oil went below $70 concern of commodity inflation receded somewhat
Markets are a little stretched on the upside SPX up for 6 weeks, investor sentiment is in favor of the bulls. Small caps appear to be playing catch-up Russell closed at a two-year high Wednesday, which may help sustain the recent uptrend. Next week the economic calendar is light so the focus will be on Q3 earnings, which have been strong so far. The path of least resistance still seems to be trending higher. If the benign earnings momentum doesn’t continue throughout next week perhaps this could provide enough of an excuse for investors to take profits, resulting in a modest pullback in stocks.
What happens with the FED what’s the next move? As long as data continues to validate the soft/no-landing thesis it seems that the bias will continue to remain higher.
Deutsche bank posted that 5-year inflation swaps spiked to the highest level since March 2023. Can we see another spike in inflation that can affect the fed’s next move?
At some point the huge debt levels that we’re running suppress growth and increase interest rates and that leads to higher inflation. The market is pricing in 6 rate cuts of 150 basis points and full-on expectations of $275 of earnings. What if any of the Mag 7 miss earnings? Last quarter they all delivered good earnings and were sold off, we saw profit taking. ASML missed and semies went down this past week. Then we saw positive earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the largest chipmaker in the world. TSM reported a 54% climb in annual profit, better than analysts had expected, driven by accelerating AI demand. I understood it as AI semies demand is there.
Piper Sandler said, “the S&P is overvalued by 8% but so what”.
Stifel said this week “we’re goanna go up another 8 to 10% and then we’re goanna crash 25% sometime next year”.
Bottom line anything is plausible but what’s actionable is now.
Nuclear energy: Mega companies are investing in energy to power their AI infrastructure. AMZN announced it has signed an agreement with Dominion Energy, Virginia’s utility company, to invest more than $500 million to develop small modular reactors. Stocks in nuclear energy space – CEG, VST, D, TLN, LEU, BWXT, OKLO, SMR.
We received solid earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C). Another newsmaker was UnitedHealth (UNH), which saw shares drop sharply after the company shaved the top end of its guidance amid rising costs. It was the first outlook miss in years for the giant health company.
Treasury yields fell as inflation concerns eased amid sliding crude oil prices on media reports that Israel doesn’t plan to target Iran’s oil sector. Odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next month climbed in futures trading Tuesday.
The Russell 2000® Index (RUT) pushed above technical resistance intraday at the July peak near 2,260, though it settled below that. Strength there likely reflects the slight dip in Treasury yields that also lent support to “defensive” and yield-sensitive sectors including real estate, utilities, and consumer staples. The financial sector strength related to strong bank earnings also helps the RUT, which is heavily weighted toward that sector.
Walgreens Boots Alliance jumped more than 15% after the company said it will shut 1,200 stores over the next three years. The company’s earnings beat Wall Street’s estimates. Shares were down about 70% year to date.
Data-wise, October New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing, which provides insight into New York’s manufacturing climate, was much worse than expected at –11.9, with anything under zero indicating contraction. Analysts had expected a reading of 3.6, down from 11.5 a month ago. On a positive note, the report’s six-month outlook rose to its highest in three years, and employment numbers looked strong.
On Thursday we had retail sales. They climbed 0.4%, compared with the 0.2% consensus and 0.1% in August. Excluding autos, one very strong category in retail sales was restaurants and bars, which saw a 1.05% monthly increase.
Retail sales figures indicate consumers are still doing well and spending, which means gross domestic product growth is likely to be in the 3% plus region again.
Ongoing softness in manufacturing and falling commodity prices—reducing inflation expectations, Lower crude prices can help company margins across many industries and keep a lid on inflation.
Before retail sales, the thinking was that the Fed would cut rates 25 basis points in November but consider pausing in December if data remained strong. It’s unclear if a massive jobs report, a warm Consumer Price Index(CPI) and now a very hot retail sales report, would be enough for the Fed to think about a pause at either of its remaining meetings this year. Markets have lowered expectations about the number and size of rate cuts in 2024 due to the strength in the economic data.
It will be a pretty light week of economic data. However, there are two major updates on the state of the housing market, with September’s existing home sales out on Wednesday and September’s new home sales out on Thursday. Housing is a key watch item for investors and the Federal Reserve because it represents a large, unavoidable cost for most Americans, and it’s proven to be a sticky source of inflation. Last week, September housing starts were slightly better than expected, though they were down month over month. We’re unlikely to see a sustained material improvement in the housing market until bond yields come down, which will help pull mortgage rates lower and, in turn, make monthly payments more affordable.
Bonds:
Expect the sideways churning in the bond market to continue until there is a catalyst for the next move. Credit spreads will likely remain tight. The U.S. dollar, having rebounded again from the low end of its two-year trading range, looks like it has some room to move higher as weakness in global growth relative to the United States keeps it firm.
Currently, Bloomberg probabilities suggest a 92% chance of a 25-basis point cut at the November FOMC versus 89% last Friday. Through 2025, the probabilities are suggesting 150 basis points of cuts, which is consistent with the September dot plots from the Fed.
Before the next Federal Reserve meeting November 6–7, key data include September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 31 and October nonfarm payrolls on November 1.
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates 25 basis points for the third time this year.
Futures:
#SLV highest since November 2012. #GLD continues its record run.
As of Tuesday, looking at the daily chart for the Gold Futures December 2024 (/GCZ24) contract we can see significant buying pressure as the contract climbed to new all-time highs. The contract has consistently traded off the 20-Day Simple Moving Average which was tested yesterday on below average volume. /GCZ24 is currently trading well above the 50-Day and 200-Day SMA price points.
According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released October 8th managed money traders have decreased their long position by -20,271 contracts and increased their short position by +132 contracts. Managed money traders are net long 194,059 contracts. The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 59.17% indicates more buyers than sellers.
Chinese stocks are under pressure lately, with declines this month eroding gains from the massive rally sparked by China’s stimulus announcement in September.
Investors appear to have lost faith that the government’s stimulus will be the answer to that economy’s problems,” Yardeni Research said in its Wednesday briefing note. “The quick knee-jerk rally in Chinese equities already looks like it’s getting a leg cramp.”
China’s third-quarter GDP rose 4.6% on an annual basis between July and September, inching just above the Reuters consensus view of 4.5%. Retail sales also climbed more than analyst had expected. Chinese stocks popped more than 3.5% Friday on stimulus hopes despite GDP falling sequentially from 4.7% in the second quarter.
European and Asian stocks mostly climbed this week, and Japan saw inflation dip, which could ease concerns about another rate hike there.
Conclusion from this week:
The decline in oil and solid retail sales this past week point to an economy with moderating inflation and resilient growth.
discipline mandates that we consider lightening up our stock exposure in an overbought market. We’re not there yet but still close.
You need a catalyst for the sector and stock that you’re trading to move higher. The markets were missing a catalyst this week for further upside. Some of the economic reports this week suggest that the FED may slow down further cuts. SPX price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 22 remains historically elevated.
Earnings:
Monday (10/21): Sandy Springs Bancorp Inc. (SASR), SAP SE (SAP), Nucor Corp. (NUE), WR Berkley Corp. (WRB), Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE), AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Zions Bancorp (ZION). Logitech (LOGI).
Tuesday (10/22): GE Aerospace (GE), Danaher Corp. (DHR), Verizon Communications (VZ), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), RTX Corp. (RTX), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), Texas Instruments (TXN), Baker Hughes Co. (BKR), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), General Motors (GM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), 3M (MMM),
Wednesday (10/23): Coca-Cola Co. (KO), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), Nextera Energy Inc. (NEE), AT&T Inc. (T), Boeing Co. (BA), General Dynamics Corp. (GD), Tesla (TSLA), T-Mobile US (TMUS), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)
Thursday (10/24): S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), United Parcel Services Inc. (UPS), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC), Carrier Global Corp. (CARR), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
Friday (10/25): Sanofi SA (SNY), HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), AON PLC (AON), Centene Corp. (CNC)
Technical Analysis:
NDX is less than 2% away from it’s all time high 20,675. NDX remains in an uptrend and price has been converging over the past two months in triangle trend. mega-cap tech earnings, which we’ll get the week after next, will likely determine whether we can make new all-time highs or not.
Russell appears to be forming a bull flag formation on the charts. This bullish pattern would be confirmed if the index closes above the upper trendline of the flag, or some technicians look for a close above the top of the flagpole which is at Wednesday’s 2,286 close.
KWEB ETF China, retraced 50% according to Fibonacci numbers.
Memoirs of a trader:
For the past two years I added trading options as opposed to just trading stocks. Trading options is very risky we’re paying for time value (every day that passes on your option without the option moving in the direction of your trade, the option loses time value). And if the stocks you’re trading aren’t moving, trading the options is a losing bet. Another thing that caught my attention, 20 years ago options premiums were much cheaper than they are today, The only options trade that worked for me this week was selling a put, taking the other side of the trade (which can be very risky) but works when the underlying stock doesn’t move or moves in your direction. Conclusion stick to trading stocks when the stock isn’t moving you aren’t losing and add options only once the volatility gets going.
Trading stocks, commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The information here is of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December hogs satisfied their first upside PriceCount objective early this month and have consolidated their trade. At this point, the second count would project a possible run to the 82.15 area IF you can resume the rally and break out above resistance at the April high.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
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All time highs on gold futures today!
See both daily and weekly charts below.
On a different note, as the CME raises margins, the day trading margins may be higher as well.
Depending on the trading platform you are using, your day trading margins may be a percent of the overnight margins. If you are using the E-Futures International, then your day trading margins between 7:45 AM central and 3:30 PM central are as below:
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you listen to podcasts!
Busy day ahead! Natural Gas, Crude Oil numbers, weekly unemployment, retail n umbers, housing numbers, few Fed speakers…., Thursday, Oct. 17th!
On a different note, as the CME raises margins, the day trading margins may be higher as well.
Depending on the trading platform you are using, your day trading margins may be a percent of the overnight margins. If you are using the E-Futures International, then your day trading margins between 7:45 AM central and 3:30 PM central are as below:
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on Apple, Spotify, Amazon, or wherever you listen to podcasts!
Movers and Shakers
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
Oil took another $3 .40 nosedive when OPEC announced a smaller than expected demand growth forecast for 2025 for the Third time!
Updated: October 14, 2024 8:43 am
For the third time OPEC slashed its 2024 and 2025 worldwide crude oil demand growth rate. This year’s demand was lowered to 1.93 mln bpd, down from last month’s projection at 2.03 mln mt. Analysts noted much the downgrade came from lower expected Chinese demand. Next year’s demand growth is seen at 1.64 mln bpd down from 1.74 mln bpd previously forecast.
Flirting with the low end of the 25 month old range, November crude held it’s ground around $69.75/bbl level , a mere 3 dollars from the springtime 2023 lows.
Equity markets were upset by poor United healthcare Group end of year Guidance although they beat EPS estimates, Buy the rumor sell the fact? UNH shares down 48.25 per share or nearly 8%.
Metals cruised higher today with the CME FedWatch tool reflecting a solid 90% chance the FED will lower rates .25-50 in its November meeting is again fueling speculative buying in the Yellow Metal.
The All time high in the December contract is 2708.70 , are we flirting with that number?, yes, as of this writing GCZ24 is @ 2678.00 can we take that out? Stay tuned…
Sympathetic Silver is recouping it’s bullish stance, 1.80 away from it’s contract high @ 31.70 /oz +.37 for the day
Watch Tomorrow’s Movers and Shakers:
No Fed Speakers, No Economic Data, very few ,if any earnings that would make headlines.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
The FED is your friend plus the trend is your friend. The Federal Reserve is in an easing cycle which is a positive for the markets. I would like to see that trend continue and there be no change in the Fed’s stance, we don’t want to see economic reports which would hint at inflation creeping back up. Federal Reserve officials debated whether to lower interest rates by a quarter or half of a percentage point last month. Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased. Inflation is broadly trending down. Markets had to digest a warmer-than-expected CPI report and a one-year high print in initial claims, rising geopolitical risks, along with higher oil prices and yields, yet stocks have been able to make new highs.
With markets at all-time highs, earnings season can be a boost or a test of lower support zones. All eyes will be on the earnings numbers and what executives have to say about their outlooks. In the week ahead, a number of influential companies are set to report. While the trend in stocks remains bullish, the environment is not without its risks and valuation is full. The forward P/E on the S&P 500 currently stands at roughly 22 versus the 10-year average of 17.7, per FactSet. Elevated valuation is largely driven by expectations for strong earnings growth and easing monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. Therefore, Q3 earnings season, which unofficially kicked off, will likely need to deliver strong results to keep this bull market going. High earnings valuations are fully priced in this growth story, any miss on overall earnings can generate a valuation re-set and a pullback. I would also like to look at Thursday’s Retail Sales report. The last couple of Retail Sales reports have been stronger than expected, so this data point will provide a good read on the state of the U.S. consumer. Friday CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor showed a 0.3% month/month drop in consumer spending, which could suggest a soft Retail Sales report. If so, this could be enough to trigger a profit-taking pullback in stocks.
If NVDA can obtain a new all-time high, or the small cap’s Russell can break out to fresh two-year highs next week, these would likely be near-term bullish catalysts. I would like to see a continuation of the uptrend; However, I am very cautious as any negative news from earnings or the retail’s report can change the momentum until the next catalyst.
S&P fifth straight weekly gain. The market is hitting this level without much help from tech stocks and the Magnificent 7 as the rally broadens out to the financials in response to positive third-quarter numbers from Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, and BlackRock.
Multiples are high and portfolio managers are saying they’re uncomfortable buying at these levels, but there is a lot of money coming in from the sidelines therefore they feel that they have to participate. The index level feels expensive as well, I hear analysts are looking for mid cap size companies.
Banks delivered earnings on Friday and their prices went up, which is a good start for earnings season. Year to date; JPM is up 31%, C 28%, GS 33%, BAC 25%, WFC 24%. That’s higher than the S&P YTD.
Cybersecurity: is making new highs, see ETF – BUG.
Money is coming out of China-related stocks on some disappointment around stimulus. Those dollars are rotating out of China tech names such as Alibaba and moving into the U.S. tech giants.
Bond yields rose this week, primarily driven by the warmer-than-expected inflation data. Two-year Treasury yields increased to 3.955% from 3.923% while 10-year yields tacked on roughly 10 basis points to 4.085% from 3.981%
Earnings & Economic reports this week: Monday, Oct.14: Charles Schwab (SCHW)
Tuesday, Oct. 15: Walgreens Boots Alliance(WBA), UnitedHealth (UNH), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Goldman Sachs (GS) United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and JB Hunt(JBHT) Interactive Brokers Group Inc. (IBKR), Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC), J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT)
Wednesday, Oct.16: Morgan Stanley (MS), Abbott Labs (ABT), ASML (ASML), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens (CFG) and Prologis (PLD) Alcoa (AA), PPG Industries(PPG), CSX (CSX), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Discover (DFS) and Crown Castle (CCI) Discover Financial Services (DFS), Equifax Inc. (EFX)
Taiwan Semi (TSM), Travelers (TRV), Elevance (ELV), Huntington Bancshares (HBAN), Blackstone (BX), Truist (TFC) and KeyCorp(KEY) Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) and Crown Holdings (CCK) Elevance Health Inc. (ELV), Travelers Companies Inc. (TRV),
Friday, Oct. 18: Housing Starts & Building Permits. American Express (AXP), SLB (SLB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB), Regions Financial Corp. (RF), Ally Financial Inc. (ALLY), Comerica Inc. (CMA),
Technical Analysis:
While the SPX and DOW made new all-time highs, the Nasdaq 100 did not. But it continued to trend higher this week and is on pace to close less than 2% below the all-time closing high of 20,675, hit back on July 10th. If Nvidia sets fresh all-time highs this could signal to markets that the AI trade is alive and well and should help the NASDAQ, but other AI plays are trading well as well, such as ORCL, AVGO, PLTR.
Small caps: the Russell is heavily weighted on regional banks and health care. The Russell 2000 was the relative outperformer Friday (+1.64%), assisted by several strong earnings reports out of the financial sector Friday. The index trading range is roughly 2,050-2,260. If the Index can notch a fresh two-year closing high this could send a bullish technical signal to the markets that small caps are finally ready to join the party.
Market breadth:closed out the week strongly, with roughly 75% of SPX components trading above their respective 200-day moving averages. No change in market breadth. On a week-over-week basis, the SPX) breadth ticked down to 75.75% from 76.35%, the CCMP ticked up to 44.66% from 44.09%, and the RTY is flat at 55.87% from 55.76%.
Overseas: rates are in the news ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision Thursday. The ECB has cut rates twice in 2024, and analysts expect a third one next week and a fourth in December, Reuters reported.
Bonds: Economy defies gravity, sending bond yields higher. The U.S. economy continues to defy expectations by growing faster than expected. Despite all of the constraints —tightening Federal Reserve monetary policy, weak global growth, wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, and low consumer confidence. GDP growth has been running at about a 3% annualized pace over the past four quarters. The major driver behind the growth is consumer spending. Supported by steady job and income growth, consumers are spending at a pace that is keeping the economy buoyant. In the Treasury bond market, yields, which generally move inversely to prices, have rebounded on these signs of strength.
What stands out to me: ever since the Microsoft Constellation energy deal, I have been looking for plays in the Energy sector particularly in nuclear power plants. Listen to Brad Gerstner podcast on BG2. I welcome any insight and news on the subject from any of you.
futures I am watching this week:
Have an amazing week.
The outlook contained in this article are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Futures trading is risky and suitable for everyone.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices – Next Week Highlights:
The Week Ahead
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker
A relatively Quiet Data week next week, Geopolitics may be the only driver of volatility. One Caveat: the Fed Speakers dialogue may be given much more weight by investors as there will be a lot less noise in the form of Economic Data and earnings from prominent “Magnificent Seven” stocks to drive market volatility.
Prominent Earnings this Week:
Tues, pre-open United Healthcare, B Of A, Goldman Sachs, Citi Group, Johns and Johnson
Wed. Abbott Labs,
Thu. NetFlix Post-Close
FED SPEECHES:
Mon. Kashkari, Waller, 2nd Kashkari.
Tue. Kugler, Bostic
Wed. QUIET
Thu. QUIET
Fri. Bostic, Waller, Kashkari, Bostic
Big Economic Data week:
Mon. BANKS CLOSED-Columbus Day National Holiday
Tues. Quiet
Wed. Quiet
Thur. Bus. Inventories, Jobless Claims.
Fri. Housing Starts, Building Permits
Futures 101: Crude Oil – What’s in Store for the next 2 Weeks?
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December heating oil Rallied to its second upside PriceCount objective before correcting. At this point if the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the 3rd count would project a possible run into the 2.59 area
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Economic Reports
provided by:ForexFactory.com
All times are Eastern Time ( New York)
Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
By John Thorpe, Senior Broker With Equities quietly trading in a consolidation phase, Interest rates following, the precious metals ,once again found footing and surprised many traders with their mid-day upside move, Gold higher by $36.00 @ 2689.00, Silver up $1.50 into the $32.50 /Troy OZ range.. The US Dollar @ 100.10 continuing it’s 2.5 month long slide, flirting with 14 month lows of 99.22. Metals should gain additional strength if the dollar falls below that number on a closing basis. Todays Headlines Updated: September 24, 2024 6:12 am Churning hurricane threatening US production, continued Middle East tensions, and Chinese stimulus measures have helped crude oil prices trade higher on Tuesday. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:00 am China’s central bank announced its largest stimulus measures since the pandemic. The bank will lower interest rates and additional funding. However, analysts say very week consumer and business demand for credit will have little response to lower interest rates, and the lack of fiscal stimulus measures will leave the central bank’s response to fall short of jump starting the economy and beating back deflationary environment. Updated: September 24, 2024 7:55 am Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales Headline Recap **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +5.2% in the first three weeks of September 2024 vs September 2023 **Redbook Weekly US Retail Sales were +4.4% in the week ending September 21 vs yr ago week Updated: September 24, 2024 8:00 am Case Schiller 20 US Metro-Area Home Prices Recap **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July Y/Y: +5.9% from the year ago month **Case Schiller 20 US metro area home prices for July M/M: +0.01% vs prior month Updated: September 24, 2024 9:02 am Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Headline Recap **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Index: -21.0 ; prior -19.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Shipments Index: -18.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing New Orders: -23.0 ; prior -26.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Employees: -22.0 ; prior -15.0 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Paid: +3.36 ; prior +2.45 **Richmond Fed September Manufacturing Prices Received: +1.57 ; prior +1.87 **Richmond Fed September Service Sector Index:-1.0 ; prior -11.0 Updated: September 24, 2024 9:09 am Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Present Situation, Expectations Index Headline Recap **Conference Board September Consumer Confidence Index: 98.7 ; prior revised to 105.6 from 103.3 ; expected 102.8 **Conference Board September Consumer Present Situation Index: 124.3 ; prior revised to 134.6 from 134.4 **Conference Board September Consumer Expectations Index: 81.7 ; prior revised to 86.3 from 82.5 Tomorrows Movers and Shakers New Home Sales Released On 9/25/2024 10:00:00 AM For Aug, 2024 US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
September 23, 2024 by GalTrades.com
Powel said at the Jackson hole meeting, “The time has come for policy to adjust,” The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”
It didn’t matter if we got a .25 or .50 basis point rate cut, earnings growth will determine if the market can keep going up.
The market made new all-time highs, but only one MAG7 stock made new all-time high, META. That means the rally is broadening, a positive point for the market.
The S&P is currently trading at a forward P/E of 21 which suggests that a lot has been priced regarding the bull thesis. Valuations are high and that should be noted. How much higher can the market go up? remains to be seen.
“don’t fight the Fed” or “don’t fight the trend” are statements to sustain near-term bullish momentum. Aside from the FED cutting rates, the economy still appears to be on firm footing.
Next week the earnings and economic calendar is relatively light, outside of next Friday’s PCE report, but perhaps this can be conducive for recent bullish momentum. In the absence of news, the path of least resistance is higher. Yes, we are still in the midst of bearish seasonality, but the technicals look encouraging.
Going forward bad news is good news because the FED will need to lower rates on bad news, unless the news is disastrous.
As long as the SPX can remain above July’s prior all-time closing high 5,667, we should see continuation. An SPX close below 5,667 could introduce concerns of a false breakout to all-time highs, which would likely introduce some additional selling pressure
A positive point: 76% of the S&P 500 stocks are above there 50 Day Moving Averages and 76% are above their 200 Day MA.
Year to date the two top performing factors were momentum and growth which were up 29/27 % respectively. The two worst preforming groups were yield and value stocks. In the last 3 month that flipped. Dividend and value stocks get an uptick when rates come down.
I see analysts calling for the small caps to go up with rate cuts. The action on Wednesday didn’t show that. It may be wise to react as opposed to jumping in now. It would make more sense for mid-caps to go up prior to small caps as there are more profitable companies in mid-cap sectors.
Statistics show post-election the markets usually end higher. And in the past when the FED has cut rates in a soft landing, or no landing markets ended up higher for the next 6 to 12 months almost 100% of the time.
Cyclical, mortgage, auto loan rates and small cap stand to benefit from rate cuts.
Rate cuts can ignite small caps and value stocks. The IJR index contains a higher % of companies which are profitable as opposed to the IWM Russell 2000.
Bull market indicators usually benefit capital market plays, stocks such as; CBOE, IBKR, BLK, GS. Rate cuts should help the homebuilders XHB ETF.
If Fed rate cuts can bring short-end bond yields down to more normal rates, then banks wouldn’t have to overcompensate at the long end and longer-term loans like mortgages could come down. That would put more money in the pockets of everyday Americans and help fuel all sectors of the stock market — not to mention the benefit lower rates have on valuations.
Commodities and oil prices are down, rates are coming down. That’s all good for companies and the consumer.
Energy companies as opposed to the price of oil. historically this sector has been one of the best sectors going into a rate cut. What we didn’t have in the past is a slowdown in China, that narrative should put a lid on appreciation. There may be some individual names that are exceptions.
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Daily Levels for September 23, 2024
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US new home sales data for June will be updated Wednesday morning at 9:00 am CT. Analysts expect new home sales month-to-month at a 0.640 mln unit annualized pace, up +3.4%. The prior month’s sales were -11.3% at 0.619 mln unit annual rate. Micron Technology reports after the close 
