Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The Federal Reserve took center stage today. With inflation proving stickier than expected, the central bank has found itself balancing between a hawkish and dovish view. The policy-setting FOMC held interest rates steady at the 5.25%-5.50% range for the fifth straight meeting. The bigger indicator traders were eager to see was the Fed governors’ so-called dot plot that updated their rate and economic projections – for the first time since December. Turns out, it didn’t deviate from the three rate cuts they previously penciled in by the end of 2024.
Indexes:
As of this typing, the June E-mini S&P 500 is trading at new all-time highs around 5280. As well, the June E-mini Dow Jones is trading at its own all-time highs, barely 100 points away from 40,000!
Metals:
April gold is on the verge of eking out its own all-time high close above last Monday’s closing price of $2,188.60 per ounce. It’s currently trading ±$2,191.00 per ounce
General pt. II:
Over the weekend, Japan ended its negative interest rate policy, marking a historic shift away from an aggressive monetary easing program that was implemented years ago to fight chronic deflation. As part of the decision, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years, lifting its short-term rate to “around zero to 0.1%” from minus 0.1%.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
For all of you index traders, you may have noticed the shrinking Open Interest and Volume in the March contracts. It’s that time when volume shifts to the next quarterly expiration contract. June! the symbol is M.
March volume will be drying up quickly, don’t get stuck Friday morning with a March contract at the crack of dawn when the carousel stops. Start trading the June contract today!
According to Bloomberg, the S&P 500 has averaged an 0.8% move on CPI days over the past six months
Today, stocks are sideways, the dollar and gold are both up marginally as investors nervously await tomorrows 7:30 a.m. CDT Consumer Price Index release.
Last Month, on Feb 13th stocks slid sharply following the release and Treasury yields surged higher when a surprise CPI number, an Increase of 0.3% in January, crossed the newswires. Housing costs accounted for much of the price rise.
Overall prices are expected to rise 0.4% percent after increasing 0.3% percent in January. Annual rates, which in January were 3.1% percent overall and 3.9% percent for the core, are expected at 3.1% and 3.7% percent respectively. Per econoday.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Is gold a more profitable investment than equities over the long term? Our finding is that the value of gold has mostly held its own against the U.S. equity market since the S&P 500 time series began over 94 years ago (Figure 1). A well-defined picture of their performance through peaks and troughs is evident when the S&P 500 dollar value is repriced in gold, which is done by dividing the S&P 500 by the U.S. dollar price of one troy ounce of bullion (Figure 2).
Figure 1: Overall, gold has nearly held its own versus equities over the past 100 years.
The S&P 500/gold ratio has been subject to extremely strong trends and occasional periods of consolidation which correspond with different economic and geopolitical situations, some of which benefitted equities relative to gold and vice versa. Generally, equities have done better than gold during periods of geopolitical stability, disinflation and steady economic growth, while gold tends to outperform during periods of instability. Switching from one circumstance to another can set off powerful trends in the S&P 500/gold ratio that can last for years, even decades. The same goes for Asian equity markets when compared to gold, although the price history isn’t as long and the patterns differ both in equity market performance and trends in the currency market.
Since the equity market’s peak on September 3, 1929, the S&P 500/gold ratio has been through six distinct eras:
1929-1942: The Great Depression and the Rise of the Axis Powers: Between 1929 and 1933 S&P 500 fell by 86% in U.S. dollar terms. In 1933, the incoming Roosevelt Administration’s first action was to devalue the dollar versus gold from $23 to $35 per ounce, a 52% gain for anyone who was still able to hold on to gold. Between 1933 and 1942, equities stagnated as the U.S. struggled to recover from the Depression and as the Axis Powers of Germany, Italy and Japan reached their peak of expansion in 1942.
1942-1968: Allied Victory, Bretton Woods and Superpower Parity: as the Allies turned the tide in the war, equity markets began to rally. Stocks continued upward with only brief pauses around the time of the Korean War and the Cuban missile crisis. Under the post-war Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates, the dollar remained fixed at $35 per ounce and foreign currencies were pegged to the dollar. The S&P 500 soared 1,165% versus the dollar and gold.
1968-1980: Overheating and Stagflation: The combination of the Great Society program and Vietnam War overheated the U.S. economy, leading to successive waves of inflation. Amid rising prices, the U.S. dollar peg to gold was no longer tenable. In 1971, the Nixon Administration pulled the plug on Bretton Woods, setting off a rally in gold prices that took the yellow metal from $35 to $800 per ounce by the end of the decade. Equity prices traded sideways in a wide range during this period of uncertainty which also featured the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam, the 1973 Arab Embargo, the Iranian Revolution and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Relative to gold, the S&P 500 fell by 95%.
1980-2000: Disinflation and Pax Americana: Over the course of two decades the S&P 500 rose by 4,137% versus gold as stock prices soared and precious metals retreated amid tight money, falling inflation and improved economic growth.
2000-2011: The Tech Wreck, War on Terror and the Global Financial Crisis: during this period, the S&P 500 lost 89% in gold terms.
2011-2021: Pax Americana Part 2: From 2011-2019 equities soared amid a slow, low-inflation recovery in the U.S. that sent the price of gold substantially lower. While equities fell in the early stages of the Covid-19 pandemic, fiscal stimulus and $4.9 trillion of Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) purchases initially benefitted equities more than gold. Overall, the S&P 500 outperformed gold by 337% during this time.
What’s next? The S&P fell 28% versus gold from late 2021 through 2022, and despite its 2023 rebound led by mega-cap companies dubbed the Magnificent Seven, it remains 5% lower versus gold as of late February 2024 despite being about 6% above its 2021 highs when expressed in dollar terms. A few points are clear:
The S&P has lost its upside momentum versus gold.
The world may have entered a lasting period of geopolitical instability with Russia and other powers challenging the U.S.-led order.
It’s not clear if the U.S. and its peers will return to lastingly low levels of inflation or not.
Central banks have conducted the biggest tightening cycle in over 40 years, which may increase the risk of a global economic downturn and subsequent monetary easing.
These points have the potential to turn the tide against U.S. equities, which are highly valued (see our related article here), in favor of hard assets like gold. But what about much less expensive equity markets like those in China, Japan and Korea? South Korea’s KOSPI Index, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index have their own strong trends versus gold.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
You can’t keep a good index down. When the stock price of a member of the Magnificent Seven Stocks – artificial-intelligence chip leader Nvidia – advances 15% for the day on its quarterly earnings report and the company’s market cap. approaches $2-Trillion, it moves the stock indexes of which it is a component – the Nasdaq 100 and the S&P 500.
Their related futures contracts lead the way with the S&P 500 claiming its largest daily increase in months – over 105 points at this typing – to new all-time highs for the contract, pushing over 5,100. TheE-mini Nasdaq advanced ±550 points over 18,000 and the E-mini Dow Jonesadded over ±500 points to set its own new all-time high near 39,200.
Not to be outdone, Japan’s main stock index, the Nikkei 225, closed at its own new all-time high above 39,000, a level it set 34 years ago before the country fell into the doldrums of a deflationary economy. In fact, the Nikkei has been the world’s best-performing major index in 2024, surging ±17.5% only two months into the year and trouncing the impressive ±5% advance of the S&P 500. Ironically, Japan is still amidst a recession and just fell behind Germany to the no. 4 spot among the world’s leading economies.
Largest economies in the world by GDP (nominal) in 2023
according to International Monetary Fund estimates
Metals:
After a week-long ±$50 break to below $2,000/oz. intraday on Feb. 14, April gold recovered ±$30 and has stayed rangebound over the last few trading sessions as the minutes of the Fed’s late-January meeting released yesterday showed that the bank was in no hurry to begin cutting interest rates.
Grains:
March corn futures dropped to three-year lows today, trading within five cents of $4.00 per bushel on plentiful domestic supply and signals that South America will harvest strong crops this year.
Energies:
Signs of production declines sent natural gas futures contracts into rally mode this week with the front month March contract seeing a ±20-cent increase off its life-of-contract lows – a ±$2,000 move. U.S. exploration and production company Chesapeake Energy signaled it plans to reduce its natural gas production this year by roughly 30% given extremely low prices.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Effective tomorrow, February 1, the CME Group is raising the exchange fees for a number of futures contracts.
For the CME E-mini equity products: E-mini S&P 500 (ES), E-mini Nasdaq (NQ), E-mini Dow Jones (YM) and E-mini Russelll 2000 (RTY), fees are going up by 5 cents, from $1.33 to $1.38
For the NYMEX energy products: Crude oil (CL), Heating oil (HO), RBOB Unleaded gas (RBOB) and Natural gas (NG) fees are going up by 10 cents, from $1.50 to $1.60
For the COMEX metals products: Gold (GC), Silver (SI), Copper (HG) and Platinum (PL) fees are going up by 5 cents, from $1.55 to $1.60
For the COMEX E-mini metals products: miNY gold (QO), miNY silver (QI), miNY copper (QC) fees are going up by 25 cents, from $0.75 to $1.00
All other products / symbols will remain the same.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
The last few FOMC meetings I looked for trades until around 930 AM Central time and then somewhat “took a step back”.
I would then follow closely around 1 PM Central when the announcement comes out but try to not pull the trigger until 1:15/ 1:30 when the smoke clears.
This is of course just my personal preferences and every trader is different.
Take notes after the trading session so you can look back and refer the next FOMC meeting….
Below are some additional tips/observations I have taken notes of for myself:
· ·Reduce trading size
· Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
· Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 4425.00 with a stop at 4419.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 4419.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
· Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
· Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
· Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
· Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
· The rate announcement comes out exactly at 1 PM central. As of this morning there is a 98% chance of no change in rates.
· Traders will pay EXTRA attention to the language and the Q&A which starts at 1:30 PM Central
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Important Notices – 2024 World Cup Trading Championship
Trading Resource of the Week – FREE Trader’s Consultation
Hot Market of the Week – April Hogs
Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ Swing Trading System
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week
Important Notices –
The 2024 World Cup Trading Championships® are just around the corner.
You are invited to enter the ultimate trading challenge, where some of the world’s best Futures and Forex traders compete.
The World Cup Trading Championships have been held since 1983 and are the most prestigious trading competitions in the industry. The winners of each division will prove that they are the best of the best.
The top profitable Entrants will be eligible to receive a magnificent pewter Bull and Bear trophy or a beautiful crystal Bull and Bear Trophy.
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Take on traders from across the globe to compete for coveted Bull & Bear trophies, glory, and new career opportunities.
Contact us at 1-310-859-9572 or Visit Us on the Web
Trading Resource of the Week : Book a Trading Consultation ( FREE, no obligation!)with a Cannon Trading Series 3 Broker
Available to both Clients and prospects!
Immediately increase your software and computer competence
Valuable order entry tips
Help create a personalized workspace
Compare multiple trading software
Get to know your Broker
Learning Options strategies
In this complimentary call or screen share session, which can last up to 30 minutes, you will have the opportunity to seek guidance and pose questions to our expert on a wide range of topics. These topics include, but are not limited to:
– Gaining insight into day trading margins.
– Assessing and reviewing various trading platforms and technologies.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
April hogs stabilized their slide after completing the first downside PriceCount objective. Now, on the correction higher, the chart has activated upside counts and is taking aim at the first target in the 84.98 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Over 1 Trillion $$ in Market Cap report Q4 ’23 earnings on Friday the 15th.
Those reporting: JPM(Chase), UNH (United Healthcare), BAC (Bank of America), WFC (Wells Fargo), C (Citibank), BLK (BlackRock)
In the Ag sector, what is touted as “the biggest USDA data dump of the year, presenting the opportunity for the most market-moving surprises” by Arlan Suderman StoneX lead Ag analyst.
USDA Supply/Demand and Annual Crop production numbers to be released @11:00 a.m. CST
Real Time Email Alerts
Directly to your Phone!
You will receive an email each time there is an entry or exit in a simple language along with the current price for that specific market.
A licensed series 3 broker at your fingertips
Email alerts available to US and Canada and Int’l clients
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Questions about the markets? trading? platforms? technology? trading systems? Get answers with a complimentary, confidential consultation with a Cannon Trading Company series 3 broker.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week: www.mrci.com
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading.
Good Trading!
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
