NFP, 4th of July Trading Hours, Stock Market Stats; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on July 3rd, 2025

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NFP Tomorrow + 4th of July Friday

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

nfp

NFP is tomorrow rather than the usual Friday release!

Stock index futures will close early tomorrow at 12:15 Central time

Take care that the markets are in “holiday mode,” meaning trade participation and thus liquidity can decrease into the Independence Day holiday on Friday. This is more relevant than usual in that it comes along with the early release of this month’s employment report.

NFP

U.S. June Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data will be released tomorrow morning at 7:30 A.M., Central Time, a day earlier that its typical first-Friday-of-the-month release.

Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls to come in at +110,000 compared to the previous month’s +139,000. The June jobless rate is expected at 4.3%, up +0.1% compared to the previous month. Average hourly earnings are expected up +0.3% month over month. On top of that, weekly Jobless Claims will be released simultaneously.

Please see the schedule below for trading hours tomorrow and Friday. Note that trading hours will be abbreviated tomorrow and Friday.

Found some stock market stats: per data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve, the wealthiest Americans control a majority of shares. The top 1% own half of all corporate equities and mutual funds in the U.S. When factoring in the top 10% of Americans by wealth, ownership of the group rises to close to 90% of all stock market holdings.

This number has not changed meaningfully over time, with the percentage oscillating between 80% and 90% in data that goes back to the end of the 1980’s.

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4th of July Holiday Trading Schedule:

Globex:

Grains

Friday – Closed

Sunday – 7:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

Livestock

Friday – Closed

Monday – 8:30 a.m. CT Re-open

 

Cryptocurrencies

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

Energy

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

FX

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

Interest Rates

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

Metals

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

 

Stock Indices

Thursday – 12.15 p.m. CT Close

Thursday – 5.00 p.m. CT Re-open

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

ICE US

Sugar, Coffee, Cotton, Cocoa, FCOJ

Friday – Closed

Monday – Regular Hours (Cotton re-open at 7.00 a.m. CT)

Canola

Friday – Regular Hours

U.S. Dollar Index

Friday – 12:00 p.m. CT Close

Sunday – 5:00 p.m. CT Re-open

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Sept. Mini SP 500

Although the weekly chart is trading at an all-time high, the September Emini S&P daily chart is challenging its contract high. At this point, a breakout with new sustained highs would project a run to the second upside PriceCount objective to the 6479 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk.

Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors.

Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for July 3rd, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

 Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Full Day of Trading Reports Tomorrrow! PCE, Weekly Unemployment, Natural Gas, August Live Cattle; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 26th, 2025

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Trading Day Full of Reports Ahead!

reports

REPORTS TOMORROW: Core PCE, weekly unemployment, natural gas numbers, Fed speakers, GDP, Durable goods and more….

FULL DAY OF NEW REPORTS AHEAD.

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August Live Cattle

August live cattle recently activated downside PriceCount objectives from the June highs. The first count projects a possible slide to the 206.40 area. The low percentage fourth upside count near 257 is not shown here for presentation purposes.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 26th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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VIX, 12-Day War, Sept. Coffee; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 25th, 2025

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Take a Look at the VIX

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

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12-Day War; Volatility and THE VIX

The Fragile state of the 12-day war will create more angst in our markets if the ceasefire does not hold. President Trumps impact reaches beyond the tariff wars as more negotiations will be revealed as western leaders meet in the Netherlands the next few days. And as Europe’s NATO leaders gather in The Hague to agree on a historic defense spending target of 5 percent, the answer may come as a surprise.

Rather than doing a market recap today; below is a brief I put together regarding The Volatility Index or simply “The Vix Index”. This instrument is a futures contract traded at the Chicago Board Options Exchange which is the pre-eminent American Stock Option Exchange.

Call your Cannon Broker if you think you would benefit from live or even delayed VIX data on your trading platform.

The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility — widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future with its ebbs and flows.

Choose your opportunities wisely. Today’s market swings were largely back to normal (pre tariff talk normal)

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:  Building Permits, EIA Crude oil stocks, New Home Sales

FED Chair Powell Congressional Testimony (Senate) 9:00 am

Earnings: Micron, General Mills

Tariff news: Anything goes!

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The VIX Index is a calculation designed to produce a measure of constant, 30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market, derived from real-time, mid-quote prices of S&P 500® Index (SPX℠) call and put options. On a global basis, it is one of the most recognized measures of volatility — widely reported by financial media and closely followed by a variety of market participants as a daily market indicator.

The inverse can easily be represented by looking at the Daily S&P chart

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Sept. Coffee

September coffee satisfied its second downside PriceCount objective and is consolidating its trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its slide with new sustained lows, the third count would project a possible slide to the 282 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 25th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Iran, Energy, Grain, Oil, Fertilizer; Your 5 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 24th, 2025

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Iran

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Two-day Fed Chair Powell congressional testimony (historically more volatility on day 1) starting tomorrow!

Video below on U.S. Strikes Iran: Oil, Fertilizer &

Market Fallout Analysis:

Description: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX, reports live from the trading floor following a major U.S. military strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In this special June 23 market update, we break down the strike’s implications for:

  • Oil markets and Strait of Hormuz risks
  • Fertilizer supply chains under threat
  • Grain and energy prices in early trading
  • Potential geopolitical escalation—and how traders are reacting
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July Class III Milk

July class III milk continues to slide and has negated the remaining unmet upside PriceCount near 23 cents (not shown for presentation purposes) with the trade below the late April reactionary low. At this point, the chart would need to violate the contract low before it could take aim at the third downside count to the 16.89 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 24th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Juneteenth Modified Hours; September KC Wheat, Levels & Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on Juneteenth; June 19th, 2025

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Juneteenth Modified Schedule Tomorrow

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Juneteenth tomorrow!

Click to View Amended Holiday Trading Hours 

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September KC Wheat

September KC wheat has resumed its rally into a new recovery high. This opens the topside for a potential run to the second upside PriceCount objective to the $5.82 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 19th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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FOMC Wednesday, E Mini S&P; Your 2 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 18th, 2025

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FOMC Tomorrow!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

fomc

FOMC

Tomorrow, we have FOMC with rate decision at 1 PM Central and statement at 1:30 pm Central.

Trading stock index futures on FOMC days calls for a measured, highly selective approach. The market tends to drift into a low volume “vacuum” in the hours leading up to the announcement, where exaggerated price moves can occur without conviction. This is not the time to force entries—no trade is better than a bad trade.

It’s critical to anticipate these zigzag patterns and avoid being lured into false signals. Reducing trading size is one of the smartest ways to manage risk on these days—volatility spikes can magnify both gains and losses, and scaling down helps preserve capital and composure.

Once the FOMC statement hits the wire, the real storm begins. Price action can whipsaw violently as traders digest the language and implications for interest rates. This is when patience pays off. Choosing entry points wisely—often by waiting for post-announcement patterns to stabilize—can mean the difference between catching a favorable trend and getting caught in the chop.

Discipline is everything: tight setups, controlled size, and a willingness to sit on your hands if conditions aren’t ideal can make all the difference. The FOMC isn’t a lottery—it’s a test of focus and restraint.

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Sept. Mini SP 500

The September Emini S&P satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective last month and is consolidating with a sideways trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally, it would have to contend with contract highs before it could potentially take aim at the second count to the 6480 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 18th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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Iran, Rollover, Bitcoin, July Unleaded; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the week of June 16th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1246

  • The Week Ahead – Israel – Iran, Rollover and Juneteenth

  • Futures 102 – Why Trade Bitcoin Futures?

  • Hot Market of the Week – August Unleaded

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Live Cattle Swing Trading System

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

iran

Iran

Can the market withstand the civil unrest planned for this weekend in our country? How about the situation in the Middle East with Israel striking Iran nuclear facilities? Stay tuned…

Equity Rollover, FOMC, Juneteenth Holiday and the longest day of the year in the northern hemisphere!

Rollover

Roll the Equity Index contracts to September (U) for Monday trading.

Roll your equity index contracts to September (U) e.g., ESU25 or EPU25, also this week, due to the Juneteenth holiday, some markets will have reduced hours and others will be closed.

Reduced hours include the Equities, Metals, Energies. Since Juneteenth falls on a Thursday, the regularly scheduled EIA Weekly Natural Gas storage report will be released a day earlier: Wed. at the same time as the FOMC rate announcement. 1PM CT.

Remember that current market drivers for Equities are hard data on Jobs, Inflation, Trump tweets and Geopolitics, clearly the Israel/Iran conflict jumps to the top of the list here.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of the Israel/Iran conflict, The FRB, U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals.

Therefore, increased volatility expectations with periodic choppiness as the administration Vs the Courts seem to also be in the middle innings of their tariff battle.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Lennar Corp
  • Tue. Jabil Inc
  • Wed. Korn Ferry
  • Thu. Empire LTD
  • Fri. Accenture, Kroger (impending strike in California)

FED SPEECHES: (all time CDT)

  • Mon.     FED
  • Tues.     Black OUT
  • Wed.     FOMC Rate Decision 1:00pm CT Powell@1:30 pm CT
  • Thu.      Quiet
  • Fri.       Quiet

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. NY Empire State Manufacturing index,
  • Tue. Retail Sales, RedBook, Capacity Utilization, Business inventories, NAHB Housing market Index
  • Wed. Building Permits, EIA Crude oil stocks, Housing Starts, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage @ 1:00 pm CT FOMC Rate decision @ 1:00 pmCT, FOMC Economic Projections,
  • Thur. JUNETEENTH Natl Holiday
  • Fri. Philly Fed, CB Leading indicators
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Why Trade Bitcoin Futures?

Watch Video Now 

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

August Unleaded

August unleaded gasoline accelerated to the topside and satisfied the first upside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF the chart can sustain further strength, the second count would project a possible run to the 2.40 area which would represent a new contract high.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Live Cattle Lee Swing Trading System

Markets Traded:   LE – Live Cattle

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $15,000

Developer Fee per contract: $25.00 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).

Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW.

NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.

IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for June 16th, 2025

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First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Inflation Expectations; July Ethanol – Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 13th, 2025

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Univ. of Michigan Numbers

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

michigan

U of Michigan NEED-TO-KNOWS

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Source University of Michigan (latest release)

Measures Percentage that consumers expect the price of goods and services to change during the next 12 months;

Usual Effect ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, around the middle of the current month;

Next Release Jul 18, 2025

FF Notes There are 2 versions of this data released 14 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earlier and thus tends to have the most impact;

Why Traders Care Expectations of future inflation can manifest into real inflation, primarily because workers tend to push for higher wages when they believe prices will rise;

Derived Via Survey of about 420 consumers which asks respondents where they expect prices to be 12 months in the future

;Acro Expand University of Michigan (UoM);

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July Ethanol

February top formed a tough resistance and the failure to break higher activated a downside PriceCount with first target at 1.63

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 13th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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CPI, Crude Oil, July Heating Oil, Soybeans; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 12th, 2025

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CPI Came and Gone

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

cpi

General:

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

May’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed inflation pressures eased on a monthly basis despite investor concerns that President Trump’s tariffs would accelerate the pace of price increases.

The latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% month over month, below April’s 0.2% rise and lower than economists’ estimates of a 0.2% monthly gain in prices.

Energies:

Crude Oil

West Texas crude oil futures rallied to pre-“Liberation Day” levels as the U.S. and China tentatively reached a trade agreement. More consequentially, doubts grew that the U.S. and Iran were close to reaching a nuclear deal.

President Trump said he was losing confidence that a nuclear deal would be agreed upon, and Iran’s defense minister said his country would target U.S. military bases in the region if conflict broke out with the United States.

Amid those threats, the United States is evacuating diplomatic personnel from Iraq, a State Department official told the Middle East independent news Al-Monitor this afternoon.

Momentum likely also drew from this morning’s EIA’s report of a bigger-than-expected 3.6-million-barrel draw in U.S. crude stocks.

Grains:

Soybean, Corn

Conversely, Chicago Board of Trade soybean and corn futures drifted lower into the close of trading as uncertainty grew on a lack of specifics about agricultural goods in the framework of those same U.S. / China trade negotiations. China is the world’s biggest soybean importer, while the U.S. is the No. 2 exporter of the oilseed.

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July Heating Oil

 

July heating oil is attempting to break out above the May high and resume its rally. New sustained highs would project a possible run to the first upside PriceCount objective to the 2.29 area. This target is consistent with a challenge of the April high and gap objective.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 12th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Win the Inside Game! July Crude Oil, June Strawberry; Your 3 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on June 11th, 2025

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Win the Inside Game!

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

win

Win the Inside Game, Crude Oil

June’s Strawberry Moon (full) will not appear this low again until 2043

CPI and insight from a long-distance running coach.

I recently listened to a podcast where a long-distance running coach was interviewed, He has written a book “Win the Inside Game”, his name is Steve Magness and he writes about the psychology of winning and losing, training the mind to overcome your physiological responses to self-doubt, losing and overcoming your own mental short comings.

They certainly apply to our sport, trading.

There are many parallels between trading and competing in a sport, in fact, when I was on the exchange floors, many members were retired professional athletes.

What stuck out to me about the similarities between, sport and craft was we all respond to EXTERNAL triggers. Mr. Magness writes (I am paraphrasing)

“in Fight or Flight responses, for athletes, cortisol is a hormone your adrenal glands release when he or she loses an event, game, championship, or simply when they can’t reach a training goal. When the same athlete, wins a contest or reaches goals, testosterone is released.

“Men and Women have plenty of both and these hormones and when they are released, change your thinking therefore, your decision making. Unfortunately, the body can also overreact to stressors that are not life-threatening, such as traffic jams, work pressure, losing trades.”

The take away for me is after each trade, allow your body to return to a level of equanimity before you take your next trade. Keep your emotions in check.

Choose your opportunities wisely. Prepare for shocks, on inflation soft and hard data, Tomorrow we have a big number Consumer Price Index CPI pre cash market opening.

The Stock market will continue to reveal the battle between Push-Pull inflation with Tariff uncertainty through price action.

Tomorrow:

Econ Data:   CPI

FED Speak: BlackOut Period

Earnings: Quiet

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July Crude Oil

July crude oil made its low in April after it completed its fourth downside PriceCount objective. The low was tested and held; leading to the recent sideways range of trade. Now, the chart has broken out to the topside and activated upside counts with a first objective that projects a potential run to the $71 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for June 11th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

stars

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. 

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment.

Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Join our Private Facebook group

Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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