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Category: Economic Trading

FOMC week ahead! + Levels for Sept. 19th 2023

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

The Week Ahead: FED Talk

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

1st of the final 3 Fed meetings this year happens this week.

The 1st upcoming meeting on Wednesday the 20th and the final Fed meeting December 13th will also include as a component “Projection Materials” or “Summary of Economic Projections”. The Summary of economic projections should give us a better view of what the voting Fed members are seeing as well. They represent more data driven insights than merely the commentary that follows the rate decisions.

Again, the language of Wednesday’s commentary will be more heavily based on data dependency as investors look for language alluding to the end of the rate increase cycle.

 

 

The Oct31/Nov 1 Fed (this is the 2nd of 3 remaining this Year) meeting will not include this data but will still include Fed Chair Powell’s commentary.

Why focus on fed meetings? There is Clear correlation between expectations of interest rate changes and Equity Market prices. An overly simplistic description: Interest rates go higher, equity prices go lower and the correlative inverse should also follow that when interest rates go lower, equity prices go higher.

Clearly our equity indices are range bound as the market has been discounting any and all further rate increases the Fed has alluded to. What has been supporting the market is the view that rate tightening is nearing an end. The Summary of economic projections should give us a better view of what the voting Fed members are seeing as well. 

CME Fedwatch Tool is reflecting a 99% probability of no rate change this meeting, maintaining the 5.25-5.50 current borrowing rate with a 1 % chance of a raise in rates.

Earnings

Fedex   (FDX) headlines a relatively light earnings calendar this week, with the logistics giant slated to disclose its fiscal first-quarter results after Wednesday’s close. Analysts, on average, expect the company to report earnings of $3.73 per share, up 8.4% year-over-year (YoY), on revenue of $21.8 billion (-7.6% YoY).

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

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Futures Trading Levels

09-19-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

 

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 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Trading Week Ahead: What to Watch Out For + Levels 8.22.2023

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

 The Week ahead: Earnings Blowout! or Blow UP?

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

With over 500 companies reporting earnings this week it is near the end of the reporting season. The market will focus Wednesday on the elephant in the room, Nvidia (NVDA Nasdaq).

The boom in Nvidia’s AI-focused business has increased more than 200% year to date, giving it a $1.1 trillion market valuation. Watch for the NQU23 to dance around in a range until AFTER Wednesday’s cash market close.

EPA Estimates are +$2.07 . future guidance will be big for the “internet Index” as AI has been leading the way and Nvidia is the leading GPU maker in the space.

BUT WAIT! that’s not all for the week,  it’s time for the Annual “Jackson Hole” conference, a 3 day meeting of top bankers and the FED.

Friday morning @ 10:00am CDT Jerome Powell will set the tone with a speech that could provide a case for the Feds next Fed Rate decision September 20-21st. This is an important meeting next month as it also sets projections by the FED members for GDP, Unemployment rate, Inflation for each year 2023,2024 and 2025.

Watch for increased volatility in the stock indices the last half of the week!

 

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

3b644da2 2bee 4d39 8d98 5208a20bec39

Futures Trading Levels

08-22-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

PPI, Michigan inflation + Trading Levels 8.11.2023

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Trading levels for August 11th, 2023 – PPI as well as Univ. of Michigan consumer sentiment and inflation expectations tomorrow.

Looks like market dynamics and pace of trading may have changed?

After more than a few weeks of range bound choppy trading in stock indices futures, today’s session had much larger range, faster speed and higher volatility and volume.

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-11-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

CPI + Trading Levels for August 10, 2023

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

CPI + Trading Levels for August 10th 2023

CPI tomorrow at 7:30 AM Central time. Market moving report.

Why Traders Care?

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment

Derived Via The average price of various goods and services are sampled and then compared to the previous sampling;

Acro Consumer Price Index (CPI);

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-10-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

NFP – Non Farm Payrolls Tomorrow – Futures Trading on August 4th

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

NFP, Non Farm payrolls or Unemployment numbers will be released tomorrow at 7:30 AM central. This is currently he biggest report as fed policy depends quite a bit on the labor market.

Be aware of the report, what market is expecting and how the market reacts.

I normally like to be flat 2 minutes before and stay that way for few minutes after until the “smoke clears” but every trader is different.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (latest release) Measures Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry;

Usual Effect ‘Actual’ greater than ‘Forecast’ is good for currency;

Frequency Released monthly, usually on the first Friday after the month ends; Next Release Sep 1, 2023

Notes: This is vital economic data released shortly after the month ends. The combination of importance and earliness makes for hefty market impacts;

Why Traders Care? Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity;

Also Called Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP, Employment Change

 

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

08-04-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

 

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Week Ahead + 04.11.2023 Trading Levels

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

 

The Week Ahead

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

 

I hope everyone is rested from the holiday week behind us, this week’s economic number releases should keep all the traders on their toes.

CPI Wednesday! The standouts will be the March CPI data on Wednesday at 7:30 CT and retail and food services sales at 7:30 CT on Friday. The CPI will be critical to the inflation outlook for Fed policymakers.

Previous CPI reports have created velocity logic events in the stock indices at the CME. The above reports will Bookend the FOMC minutes release @1pm CT on Wednesday.

If you recall the FED Meeting Black out period was before the Bank issues so don’t expect too much verbage about the banking situation in this report. Also Remember, expectations will be baked into the market at release time, after release, the market has sustained moves when the reality is much different from the expectations.

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan. 

 

First Notice and Last trading Days for the month of May below

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 04-11-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

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Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

The Week Ahead + 04.04.2023 Trading Levels

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

The Week ahead by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Primarily labor department data.

A big Note, BIG.. Good Friday is the same day as the Non Farm Payrolls release

The cash equities will be closed but the Futures will be open for the report and only 45 minutes after!

That’s right, just 45 minutes for the market to absorb the jobs data.

NonFarm Payrolls will be released @ 8;30 ET and the market is closing @ 9:15 ET until a Sunday night reopen

The bonds will be open until 10.15ET

 

The focus in the April 3 week will be on labor market data, just how tight employment remained at the end of the first quarter 2023 and what that means for the economic outlook and monetary policy.

Note that April 7 – Good Friday – is not a federal holiday in the US. However, there is an early close at 2:00 ET that day for the capital markets; the stock market will have a full close.

The February JOLTS report at 10:00 ET on Tuesday It will almost certainly show the number of people voluntarily quitting a job is declining as the imbalances in the labor market improve.

The ADP national employment report for March at 8:15 ET on Wednesday should indicate where private payrolls are growing. tech companies and some financial services may be weaker. Also important to note will be if wage growth is easing up.

The Challenger report for March at 7:30 ET on Thursday will highlight the sectors where layoffs announcements are taking place. In recent months it has been the tech sector that has dominated the story, but the February report hinted that layoffs are becoming more broad-based due to deteriorating business conditions.

The employment situation for March at 8:30 ET on Friday is expected to show that payrolls continued to rise at a healthy pace, although not as quickly as in January and February. March payrolls can be tricky to seasonally adjust due to the timing of spring breaks for various school systems and the Easter/Passover observances.

 

Plan your trade and trade your plan. 

 

Good Friday Hours for this Friday Below:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 04-04-2023

#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG
#ES, #NQ, #YM, #RTY, #XBT, #GC, #SI, #CL, #ZB, #6E, #ZC, #ZW, #ZS, #ZM, #NG

Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

 

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

Housing Data + Trading levels for 12.20.2022

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Housing Data week

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

A full week of trading!

Before I get into the market moving events for the week I would be remiss if I didn’t mention holiday light volume going into this weekends 3 day weekend. The best times to trade will be around the openings and closings while sprinkling in a few post report time frames.

The Housing market and GDP highlight this weeks market movers. Tuesday 7:30 am CST Housing Starts. Wednesday Existing home sales @9:00 am CST And Friday , same time New Home Sales.

 

Smattered in between we have Consumer Confidence On Wed @ 9 AM CDT , GDP on Thursday @ 7:30 CDT PREMARKET, this should be a big mover if it’s off the mark. Friday two more premarket numbers that could create the last volatility for the day and exhaust the energy for the week in the equity markets, they are Durable goods orders and personal income both at 7:30 CDT and will give the FED more information relative to efficacy of their current fed policy objectives.

Christmas 2022 Trading Schedule

New year’s Trading Schedule

 

Please contact your broker if you have any questions about your positions. And remember, the next front month for these contracts – March – is already well traded and available.

 

Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 12-19-2022

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Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

FOMC Trading Day Tips + Futures Trading Levels & Reports for 11.02.2022

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

Tomorrow we have FOMC.

The following are my PERSONAL suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
·    Reduce trading size
·    Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
·    Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Take the approach of entering at points where you normally would have placed protective stops. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini SP at 3925.00 with a stop at 3919.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 3919.75 and place a stop a few points below in this hypothetical example ( consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
·    Expect the higher volatility during and right after the announcement
·    Expect to see some “vacuum” ( low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
·    Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
·    Keep in mind statement comes out at 1 Pm Central time, the news conference which dissects the language comes out 30 minutes later so the volatility window stretches out.
·    Know what the market was expecting, learn what came out and observe market reaction for clues
·    Be patient and be disciplined
·    If in doubt, stay out!!
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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 11-02-2022

#goldfutures #sp500futures #crudeoilfutures # nasdaqfutures #dowfutures #futurestrading #futuresbrokers
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100  #NQ_FDow Jones  #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds  #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr  #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec.  Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept.  Euro Currency
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Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

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This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

WYNTK for Oct. 11th + Futures Trading Levels 10.11.2022

Posted on by Ilan
Get Real Time updates and more on our private FB group!

WYNTK for October 11th…

Market Volatility to remain this week. Please mark these times in your trading calendar. I always begin the week with a review of the scheduled economic data releases. This week, the fuel for volatility will be provided by what I consider to be 4 of the top five most impactful, market moving reports highlighting inflationary trends. First, on Wednesday at 7:30 am CDT PPI Final Demand consensus from Econoday.com is :

Producer prices have been cooling, edging 0.1 percent lower at the

headline level in August and rising only 0.2 percent when excluding food

and energy. September’s expectations are up 0.2 percent overall and up

0.3 percent for the core.

FOMC minutes of the most recent Fed Meeting will be released on Wednesday at 1:00PM CDT

This is the big one CPI Thursday 7:30 am CDT consensus from Econoday.com :

Core prices surged 0.6 percent in August with noticeable slowing to 0.4

percent expected for September. Overall prices are expected to rise 0.2

percent after August’s 0.1 percent gain. Annual rates are seen at 8.1

percent overall and 6.5 percent which would compare with 8.3 and 6.3

percent in August.

And finally, released at the same time, Jobless Claims Jobless claims for the October 8 week are expected to come in at 225,000 versus 219,000 in the prior week.

Be careful out there and please reduce position size during periods of likely , higher volatility . As always, plan your trade and trade your plan. Please contact your broker or Cannon Trading with any questions.

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.  You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time when it comes to Futures Trading.

Futures Trading Levels

for 10-11-2022

#goldfutures #sp500futures #crudeoilfutures # nasdaqfutures #dowfutures #futurestrading #futuresbrokers
SP500 #ES_FNasdaq100  #NQ_FDow Jones  #YM_FMini Russell #RTY_FBitCoin Index #BRTI SP500 Dec. Gold #GC_F Dec. Silver #SI_F Oct. Crude Oil #CL-F Dec. Bonds  #ZB_F Dec. 10 yr  #ZN_F Dec. Corn #ZC_F Dec.  Wheat #ZW_F Nov. Beans #ZS_F Dec. SoyMeal #ZM_F Oct. Nat Gas #NG_F Dec. Coffee #KC_F Dec. Cocoa #CC_F October Sugar #SB_F Dec. Cotton #CT_F Sept.  Euro Currency

Improve Your Trading Skills

Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker
 1-800-454-9572 Explore trading methods. Register Here


Economic Reports, Source: 

Forexfactory.com

f4d4768e 30b0 4dc8 a812 68d932e4fd14

 

This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.

RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.