FOMC: Shocking Decision Just Sent Gold Soaring: 3 Big Reasons Why

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Market Highlights

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

The Day After FOMC

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FOMC Meeting Update  

The FOMC left interest rates unchanged today.  In language newly added to its policy statement, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”  Surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings, and financial markets, albeit “soft data,” have suggested that the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet.  Last Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March sank for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future – regardless of respondents’ party affiliations.  Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, i.e. Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand.  Outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and the highest level for the month of February since 2009. That’s all for the FOMC for now.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on the heels of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s post announcement press conference.

Daily Levels for March 20th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Gold Surges to All-Time Record High of $3040 – 5 Key Signals, 7 Volatility Triggers Before the FOMC Decision

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Movers & Shakers – GOLD

by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

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Movers and Shakers:  FOMC Meeting Tomorrow @ 1:00PM CDT

    Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely. Prepare for shocks on the tomorrow FOMC Rate decision but, more importantly, expect a roller coaster during the Chairman’s statement and Q and A 30 minutes to follow.

How gold is your portfolio? 

All time highs in Gold today. 3040.00 per troy ounce of Gold. We have all contract sizes, from 1 oz to 100 ounces of Gold.

Today was a subdued trading day for almost all of the high-volume products we trade compared to the past 30 days or so.

Waiting for FOMC rate decision?

GOLD

Here were today’s top headlines.

Updated: March 18, 2025 7:32 am

US Housing Starts and Building Permits Headline Recap

**US February Housing Starts: +11.2% to 1.501 mln units annualized rate; expected +1.0% to 1.38 mln

**US February Building Permits: -1.2% to 1.456 mln unit annualized rate; expected -2.2% to 1.45 mln

Updated: March 18, 2025 8:17 am

Federal Reserve US Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization Headline Recap

**Federal Reserve February US Industrial Production: +0.7%; expected +0.3%

**Federal Reserve February US Capacity Utilization: +0.5% to 78.2; expected 77.8%

**Federal Reserve January US Industrial Production revised: +0.3%; prior +0.5%

  • **Federal Reserve January US Capacity Utilization revised: 77.7%; prior 77.8%

Daily Levels for March 19th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Gold Surges to Record $2,974: Powerful Trends & Market Shifts in This Month’s Report

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Monthly Micro

Gold, Silver and Copper

Markets Report

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Highlights in this issue include:

  • Gold prices reach new high of $2,974/oz amid tariff fears and a weaker USD.
  • Silver prices down 2.4% MoM: weaker industrial demand concerns persist.
  • Copper prices gain 1.8% MoM, the third consecutive month of growth despite tariff uncertainty.
  • Micro Gold futures saw 21% MoM growth in February.

1-Ounce Gold futures see strong start: ADV reached 8,144 contracts in February.

READ FULL REPORT

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Daily Levels for March 18th, 2025

JUNE levels for stock index futures will be sent out tomorrow morning around the cash open!

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Currency & Stock Index Futures: Avoid Costly Mistakes with these 3 Critical Deadlines

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1234

  • Rollover
  • The Week Ahead – FOMC, Housing
  • Futures 102 – Can you handle Drawdowns??
  • Hot Market of the Week – May KC/ Chi Wheat Spread
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – NQ intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

currency

Currencies Last Trading Day & Stock Index rollover

Time to start trading June Stock Index futures like MESM25 and MNQM25.

Symbol for June is M.

Monday, March 17th is Last Trading Day for all currency futures contracts, except the Canadian Dollar (Last Trading Day for the Canadian Dollar is Tuesday, March 18th). Currency futures contracts are DELIVERABLE CONTRACTS. You need to exit ALL LONG and SHORT open positions or be required to deliver or take delivery of the ACTUAL NOMINAL VALUE of the respective futures contract, i.e. $12,500 Euros, or $12,500,000 Japanese Yen. DO NOT put your account is this position. Exit all March ‘25 currency futures. Start trading currency futures with the June ’25 futures contracts.

Friday, March. 21st is Last Trading Day for March stock index futures contracts, i.e., the E-mini S&P, E-mini NASDAQ, E-mini Dow Jones and their Micro relatives. These futures contracts will halt trading at 8:30 A.M., Central Time and are cash settled, meaning any remaining open positions will be offset/settled using a to-be-determined settlement price. It is recommended that all new positions be placed in the June ‘25 futures contracts as of this Sunday night’s opening of trading. Volume in the March ‘25 contracts will begin to drop off until their expiration Friday, March. 21th.

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

FOMC Week!

Indices traders roll to June, —M25

The Senate will vote today on a continuing resolution spending bill to keep the govt. open until Sept. 30. It must be on the Presidents desk by 11:59 pm EST to avoid a shut down, This may occur during market hours or after.

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to the potential for tariff implementations creating uncertainty in the marketplace. Therefore, increased volatility expectations.

Highlights next week will include Housing Data as well as the Wednesday Rate decision. Earnings reports continue to dwindle with 271 total reports while we are in the top of the 9th inning of earnings season, the reports will be impacting the indices much less than in past weeks Highlighted by many Chinese corp. reports. Finally, for Indices traders, contract rollover Monday. June will become the front month. M25. If you are on the new StoneX Platform, click on your current month tab at the top of your DOM or HOT to open the menu. Then slide down to Replace, now type in EPM25 if you are trading the Mini-S&P or ENQM25 for the Mini Nasdaq.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. Quiet
  • Wed. Tencent
  • Thu. Micron, Nike
  • Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon.     Fed Blackout period
  • Tues.     Fed Blackout Period persists
  • Wed.     Fed Rate Decision 3/19/25 Chair Powell will Speak, 30 minutes after the rate decision.
  • Thu.      Last day of Fed Blackout period
  • Fri.       Williams 8:05 am CDT

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Empire State Mfg., NAHB Housing Market Index
  • Tue. Bldg. Permits, Housing Starts, Redbook, Industrial Production
  • Wed. EIA Crude Stocks, FOMC I.R. Decision 1:00 pm followed by Fed Presser 1:30 pm CDT
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, Existing Home Sales, EIA Nat Gas
  • Fri Quiet

Futures 102: System Traders: Can you handle the drawdowns?

Many investors may think, “I can handle drawdown”, but honestly you have no idea how much drawdown you can handle until you have been stuck in the eye of a number of your own personal drawdown storms.

While drawdown is a natural part of trading and investing, what does differ is how much drawdown each investor can mentally handle. As humans, we all ‘see’ the world differently. What appears as something normal to one person can appear completely disastrous to another. While a 10% portfolio drawdown could be extreme for one investor, the next investor may be able to trade through periods of 50% plus drawdown.

From the behavioral finance point of view, some of the main negative facts of the human brain related to trading are:

  1. The fact that weak traders tend to be reluctant to realize losses and quick to realize gains. They are more risk averse when dealing with profitable positions and more risk seeking when dealing with losses.
  2. The fact that weak traders make inconsistent and irrational economic decisions over the same scenario depending on how it is described.
  3. The fact that weak traders deals with positions as if they were expecting mean reversion of prices. They are expecting the price to return to a long term average. This is the principle that makes them think they are buying expensive positions on volatility breakout or trend following strategies.

It is out of the scope of this article to talk much more about this science, but I will just point that:

  1. Weak traders know nothing about behavioral finance, so they think that his gut feeling is right and base their decisions on his gut feeling.
  2. Smart traders knows about behavioral finance. A smart trader has already studied about this and trained himself to overcome this limitations.  At least they know how to deal with their brain to avoid most of the damage it can create on their trading accounts. The best traders knows even how to monetize from this herd behavior.

Are drawdown periods a bad thing?

 

In my opinion, they are not a bad thing, in fact I believe that drawdown periods are a very sane and good thing for any solid strategy. Drawdown periods are very efficient to shake out weak traders from the strategy while smarter traders can pick up their money (which is the name of the game after all).

The time that passes since the first equity high until we reach a new equity high is the drawdown period.

So a drawdown period has two dimensions:

  • The drawdown depth
  • The drawdown length

Most people mostly care about the drawdown depth as this is what is easier to see on back tests. But human the brain is much more affected by drawdown length. During live trading, it is easier to deal with a 10% drawdown for one week than with a 5% drawdown for five months.

  • Detailed statistical information about the strategy: Expected profit, expected drawdown, maximal drawdown depth and length, average win percentage, reward to risk ratio, …
  • Different scenarios and the actions to take (if any): intense and/or deep drawdown periods and what to do (or do nothing), whether to trade during Christmas time or summer time, whether to keep opened positions during weekends or not, what to do after a losing year (or do nothing), funding and withdrawing plan, …
  • A very clear worst case scenario: it is basically the “line in the sand” where we know that the strategy has lost it’s edge and something must be done (stop trading the strategy, adapting parameters, …). There are many ways to calculate it (double the max historical drawdown, using montecarlo simulations, using regression lines multiplied by x times the standard deviation on the equity curve, …). In the end it is a number. The important thing is to have it written in the trading plan.

When facing a problem that generates pain or panic such as a sudden deep drawdown, most of the time, when analyzed with rigor and care, the problem is not so important, and everything is within expected statistics. You will see that there were many periods in the past with similar characteristics.

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

May KC – Chicago Wheat Spread

The KC-Chicago wheat spread has resumed its rally into a new high. If the chart can sustain further strength, the second upside PriceCount projects a possible run to the 32-cent area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

Intra Nasdaq

PRODUCT

Mini NASDAQ

SYSTEM TYPE

Day Trading

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$20,000

COST

USD 85 / monthly

Get Started

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 17th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Future Trading Brokers

Futures trading is a complex and dynamic sector of the financial markets, requiring traders to navigate volatility, leverage, and strategic execution. While many traders master the basics, advanced futures traders often encounter unexpected challenges. In this article, we explore ten uncommon problems in trading futures and provide detailed, risk-assessed solutions. We will also examine why futures trading has been a cornerstone of global financial markets and how Cannon Trading Company, a legacy commodity brokerage firm based in Los Angeles since 1988, has successfully weathered decades of market innovation.

  1. Latency Arbitrage Risks in High-Frequency Trading

  2. Problem: Even sophisticated futures traders underestimate how milliseconds of latency can impact execution in high-frequency trading (HFT). Certain firms exploit minor discrepancies in price feeds, engaging in latency arbitrage against slower participants.

    Solution: Traders should utilize direct market access (DMA) with co-located servers near exchanges to reduce execution time.

    Risk Assessment: While co-location fees can be high, the alternative—being consistently front-run by faster traders—can lead to significantly larger financial losses over time.

    Why This Solution? Compared to conventional retail brokerage solutions, DMA provides superior execution speeds and minimizes the risk of adversarial HFT strategies exploiting slower market orders.

  1. Over-Optimization in Algorithmic Trading

  2. Problem: Traders using algorithmic strategies often curve-fit their models to historical data, leading to poor real-world performance.

    Solution: Implement walk-forward analysis and Monte Carlo simulations to test robustness against unseen market conditions.

    Risk Assessment: Over-reliance on historical data increases drawdown risk. Diversifying strategy inputs can mitigate failures in live markets.

    Why This Solution? Unlike standard backtesting, walk-forward analysis accounts for evolving market structures, reducing reliance on outdated data patterns.

  1. Misinterpreting Order Flow in Thin Markets

  2. Problem: Many futures traders misjudge liquidity in thinly traded contracts, leading to unexpected price slippage.

    Solution: Use iceberg orders and volume-weighted average price (VWAP) algorithms to execute large positions more efficiently.

    Risk Assessment: While VWAP orders can prevent market impact, improper execution timing can still lead to adverse selection.

    Why This Solution? Compared to manual execution, VWAP minimizes slippage in illiquid futures markets, ensuring better entry and exit efficiency.

  1. Neglecting Cross-Exchange Settlement Risks

  2. Problem: Traders using multiple futures trading brokers across exchanges sometimes fail to account for cross-exchange margin calls.

    Solution: Consolidate accounts with a prime futures broker that offers centralized risk assessment.

    Risk Assessment: Single brokerage consolidation increases counterparty risk, but decentralized positions create exposure to conflicting margin policies.

    Why This Solution? Prime brokerage mitigates liquidity fragmentation, reducing inefficiencies associated with collateral management.

  1. Hidden Costs in E-Mini Futures Trading

  2. Problem: Advanced traders often overlook exchange fees, data costs, and hidden liquidity provider markups when trading e-mini futures.

    Solution: Utilize a cost-analysis dashboard from a futures trading broker that provides transparency on fees.

    Risk Assessment: A trader might reduce cost-per-trade but risk losing access to critical order execution tools from premium platforms.

    Why This Solution? Full cost visibility allows better strategy refinement, optimizing profitability over time.

  1. The Fallacy of Static Hedging Strategies

  2. Problem: Many futures traders assume static hedging (e.g., long S&P 500 futures against short crude oil futures) will always perform consistently.

    Solution: Utilize dynamic delta hedging to adjust exposure as volatility fluctuates.

    Risk Assessment: Dynamic hedging requires frequent adjustments, increasing transaction costs.

    Why This Solution? Unlike static hedging, dynamic approaches account for changing market correlations, preventing unexpected losses.

  1. Unexpected Margin Call Liquidity Gaps

  2. Problem: Traders sometimes find themselves liquidated at extreme prices due to margin calls during low-liquidity periods.

    Solution: Implement preemptive margin buffer strategies and monitor overnight funding conditions.

    Risk Assessment: Holding excess capital reduces leverage efficiency but prevents forced liquidation at unfavorable prices.

    Why This Solution? Unlike reactive capital injections, preemptive margin buffers safeguard against adverse execution.

  1. Algorithmic Spoofing and Market Manipulation Risks

  2. Problem: Spoofing—placing fake orders to manipulate prices—can create deceptive liquidity illusions.

    Solution: Use proprietary spoof-detection indicators and confirm trades with time-and-sales analysis.

    Risk Assessment: False positives can lead to over-cautious trading, reducing profit opportunities.

    Why This Solution? Unlike conventional volume analysis, spoof-detection tools actively filter out manipulative activity.

  1. Execution Disruptions from Exchange Halts

  2. Problem: Circuit breakers and exchange halts can trap traders in highly leveraged positions.

    Solution: Diversify execution venues and employ hedge orders in correlated markets.

    Risk Assessment: Spreading orders across exchanges increases counterparty exposure, requiring careful counterparty risk management.

    Why This Solution? A multi-venue approach ensures continued execution flexibility, reducing exposure to exchange-specific disruptions.

  1. The Illusion of Automated Trading Autonomy

  2. Problem: Traders often assume once an algorithm is deployed, it requires little oversight.

    Solution: Employ real-time risk monitoring with automated trade kill-switch mechanisms.

    Risk Assessment: Kill-switches may occasionally halt profitable trades, but they prevent catastrophic automation failures.

    Why This Solution? Unlike passive oversight, active monitoring ensures rogue algorithms don’t cause unchecked losses.

Why Futures Trading Has Thrived for Centuries

Futures trading has been a fundamental part of global financial markets because it provides essential functions—price discovery, hedging, and liquidity. From the early rice futures exchanges in 18th-century Japan to modern electronic markets, futures have enabled risk transfer between producers, speculators, and hedgers. Despite technological advances, the core principles of futures trading remain intact: efficient risk management and speculative opportunities.

Cannon Trading Company: A Legacy Futures Brokerage

Established in 1988, Cannon Trading Company has endured decades of market evolution through innovation and deep market expertise. As one of the longest-standing futures trading brokers in Los Angeles, Cannon Trading provides advanced trading tools, superior risk management solutions, and comprehensive brokerage services. By adapting to technological advancements while maintaining a strong client focus, Cannon Trading has remained a reliable partner for professional traders navigating the ever-changing landscape of futures trading.

Understanding and mitigating uncommon trading challenges can significantly enhance a futures trader’s success. By implementing advanced solutions tailored to each issue, traders can optimize performance and reduce risk. As evidenced by firms like Cannon Trading Company, longevity in the futures trading industry is achieved through adaptability, transparency, and an unwavering commitment to innovation.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

 

 

Standard and Poor 500’s Brutal 10% Drop: Is a Rebound or a Bigger Crash Coming?

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Markets Highlights

by

Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Standard and Poor 500 Futures: Market Next Move?

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It was only three weeks ago that the March E-mini Standard and Poor 500 futures contract hit an all-time high.  Markets have been dealt a blow by growth and recession fears, the unpredictability of trade policy, and risks to sector-wide investment and spending.

Whether it’s a good buying opportunity or another growl towards a bear market is still up for debate, the Standard and Poor 500 index futures contract fell into correction territory yesterday, registering a decline of 10% in the span of less than a month.  While the Standard and Poor 500 futures contract trimmed some of the losses, big questions are still swirling over what lies ahead. The Trump administration is attempting to engineer a long-term structural change to the U.S. economy.  The reality of that goal is hotly debated, but it is no doubt taking a toll on the short-term animal spirits that enveloped the market since November.

Here’s a 10-point checklist that will determine the market’s future trajectory:

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Daily Levels for March 13th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Shocking Surge: 3 Powerful Ways to Survive Expanding Volatility in Trading

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Volatility Expands

volatility

See below NQ 15 minute chart for an illustration of the expanded volatility, speed, size of moves etc.

The “bands” are expanding, consider reducing trading size? Possibly trading MICROS?

Evaluating your stops and targets to make sure they adjust to volatility?

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Daily Levels for March 11th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Oil Futures Contracts

The world of futures trading is vast, intricate, and, at times, obscured by layers of jargon and complexity. Among the most actively traded financial instruments in this domain are oil futures contracts, a crucial commodity derivative that influences global economies. Understanding these contracts—how they work, the potential risks, and their historical impacts—can make a critical difference for any futures trader seeking success.

What Are Oil Futures Contracts?

An oil futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a specific amount of crude oil at a predetermined price at a future date. These contracts are standardized and traded on exchanges such as the CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). They allow producers and consumers to hedge against price fluctuations while providing opportunities for commodity brokerage firms and traders to speculate on oil price movements.

Oil futures come in various forms, including e-mini futures and micros futures, which allow for different contract sizes to cater to traders with varying risk appetites and capital.

10 Obscure Facts About Oil Futures Contracts That Traders Should Know

  1. The Market Has Negative Prices—And It Happened in 2020
    • On April 20, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for May delivery fell to -$37.63 per barrel. Due to an extreme storage shortage, holders of contracts were willing to pay others to take the contracts off their hands.
  2. Contango vs. Backwardation Can Make or Break a Trade
    • In futures trading, a market in contango means that future prices are higher than spot prices, often due to storage costs. In backwardation, future prices are lower, typically due to high demand. Understanding these states helps traders plan their strategies effectively.
  3. ‘Crack Spread’ Trading Exploits Oil Product Refining Margins
    • Futures traders use the “crack spread” strategy to hedge or profit from the difference between crude oil and refined products like gasoline or diesel. This spread reflects refinery margins and demand shifts.
  4. Oil Futures Contracts Expire Differently Than Stock Options
    • Unlike stock options, which expire monthly, oil futures have contract rollovers that can create price volatility around expiry dates. If a trader doesn’t roll over before expiry, they may have to accept physical delivery.
  5. Oil Price Moves Don’t Always Correlate With Global Events Immediately
    • While geopolitical events (like wars and OPEC decisions) impact oil, price reactions can be delayed due to hedging and algorithmic trading, making predictive trading challenging.
  6. Hedging by Airlines and Trucking Companies Influences Prices
    • Large-scale fuel consumers like airlines hedge fuel costs using oil futures contracts, impacting market dynamics. For example, Southwest Airlines famously saved billions by hedging its jet fuel costs during the 2000s.
  7. The ‘Tanker Trade’ Can Affect Oil Futures Prices
    • Oil traders sometimes buy physical crude oil and store it in tankers, waiting for higher prices in a contango market. This floating storage impacts oil futures market liquidity.
  8. Algorithmic Trading Dominates Oil Futures
    • High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms execute over 50% of futures trading volume, reacting to news, order flow, and price trends faster than human traders.
  9. Oil Futures Are Prone to Flash Crashes
    • Sudden price collapses (flash crashes) can happen due to electronic trading malfunctions or massive stop-loss triggers. One example occurred in 2018 when oil prices dropped 7% in a matter of minutes.
  10. ‘The Widowmaker’—A Dangerous Spread Trade
    • The natural gas futures spread trade between winter and summer contracts is nicknamed “The Widowmaker” because of its extreme volatility. Though unrelated to oil, it often moves in correlation, impacting oil-based hedging strategies.

Understanding the Risk Potential of Oil Futures Contracts

Like all futures trading, oil futures contracts come with significant risks:

  • Leverage Risk: Futures contracts use leverage, meaning traders can control large positions with relatively small amounts of capital. However, leverage magnifies both gains and losses.
  • Volatility Risk: Oil prices can swing wildly due to geopolitical events, natural disasters, or economic reports.
  • Margin Calls: If a trader’s position moves against them, brokers may issue margin calls, requiring additional capital to maintain the position.
  • Liquidity Risk: While oil futures are generally liquid, extreme events can lead to price gaps and limited exit opportunities.
  • Regulatory Risk: Governments and regulatory bodies can impose new rules affecting oil trading. For example, position limits or increased margin requirements can change market conditions suddenly.

Case Studies: Real-Life Oil Futures Trading Lessons

Case Study 1: The 2020 Oil Price Crash

As mentioned earlier, WTI crude oil prices went negative in April 2020. Some traders who failed to roll over their contracts in time were forced to take delivery of oil, with no storage options available. The lesson: Always have an exit strategy before contract expiry.

Case Study 2: The 2008 Oil Price Surge and Crash

In 2008, crude oil surged to an all-time high of $147 per barrel, only to plummet to $33 by year-end. Many traders who went long near the peak suffered devastating losses. The takeaway? Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can stay solvent.

Case Study 3: How a Small Trader Profited from the Crack Spread

A trader noticed gasoline refining margins widening and strategically went long on gasoline futures while shorting crude oil. This classic crack spread trade yielded substantial profits as gasoline prices rose.

Why Cannon Trading Company is a Great Choice for Trading Oil Futures

For both new and experienced traders, having the right futures broker is essential. Cannon Trading Company stands out for several reasons:

  • Wide Selection of Trading Platforms: Offering cutting-edge platforms like CQG, Rithmic, and Sierra Chart, Cannon Trading ensures traders have the best tools.
  • TrustPilot 5-Star Ratings: With consistently high ratings, Cannon Trading has built a reputation for reliability and client satisfaction.
  • Decades of Experience: Established in 1988, the firm has deep industry expertise in commodity brokerage and futures trading.
  • Regulatory Excellence: Fully compliant with NFA and CFTC regulations, Cannon Trading provides a secure and transparent trading environment.
  • Support for All Trader Levels: Whether trading e-mini futures, micros futures, or full-sized contracts, Cannon Trading accommodates all experience levels.

Trading oil futures contracts is a high-risk, high-reward endeavor requiring deep market knowledge. From forgotten trading techniques like the crack spread to modern risks such as algorithmic-driven volatility, futures traders must stay informed. Cannon Trading Company, with its best-in-class platforms, compliance, and experience, is an excellent choice for anyone looking to engage in future trading with confidence.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Future S&P 500

Trading futures, particularly the future S&P 500 contracts, offers substantial opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on market movements. However, beyond common concerns like leverage and margin requirements, advanced traders may face complex and lesser-known issues that can significantly impact their strategies. Understanding these uncommon problems is crucial for futures traders, and finding effective solutions requires experience, insight, and risk management expertise. This article outlines ten uncommon challenges in trading futures, ranking multiple solutions for each in terms of effectiveness and risk mitigation.

10 Uncommon Problems Advanced Traders May Not Know About in Trading S&P 500 Futures

  1. Hidden Liquidity Gaps in After-Hours Trading

  2. While the E-mini futures and other S&P 500 derivatives appear liquid during regular market hours, unexpected liquidity gaps occur in after-hours trading, leading to severe slippage.

    Solutions:

    1. Use Limit Orders – The best way to mitigate this risk is to strictly use limit orders, ensuring that trades execute at predetermined prices. (Low risk)
    2. Monitor Market Depth with DOM (Depth of Market) Tools – This allows traders to see actual liquidity and adjust strategies accordingly. (Moderate risk)
    3. Trade Only During High Liquidity Periods – If possible, stick to high-liquidity windows (e.g., overlap between European and U.S. sessions). (Moderate risk)
    4. Utilize Market Makers or Algorithmic Trading Strategies – Some market makers provide liquidity in off-hours, but it requires algorithmic expertise. (High risk)
    1. Sudden Margin Requirement Changes

    Futures brokers and clearinghouses can change margin requirements unexpectedly, affecting capital allocation.

    Solutions:

    1. Keep Excess Margin in Reserve – The safest way to combat this is to maintain excess margin in accounts to withstand unexpected changes. (Low risk)
    2. Use Brokers with Predictable Margin Policies – Some futures trading brokers offer transparency in advance about margin shifts. (Moderate risk)
    3. Hedge Positions with Options – Using options to hedge S&P 500 futures can minimize exposure to margin increases. (High risk due to premium costs)
    1. Volatility-Induced Stop Hunting

    Some traders notice that during high volatility, stop orders are frequently triggered just before the price reverses.

    Solutions:

    1. Place Stops Beyond Key Levels – Understanding market psychology allows traders to place stops beyond resistance/support levels. (Low risk)
    2. Utilize Time-Based Exits Instead of Stop Orders – This prevents premature exits but requires discipline. (Moderate risk)
    3. Trade with Larger Capital to Avoid Stops Altogether – High capital can weather swings but is capital-intensive. (High risk)
    1. Decoupling of S&P 500 Futures from the Index

    At times, futures prices diverge significantly from the underlying index.

    Solutions:

    1. Arbitrage with ETFs (SPY) or Other Instruments – Professional traders arbitrage these discrepancies for profit. (Low risk)
    2. Monitor Premium/Discount Metrics on Bloomberg – Awareness of fair value premium can guide better entries. (Moderate risk)
    3. Avoid Trading During Key Economic Announcements – Futures prices often decouple during major news events. (High risk if mismanaged)
    1. Technical Failure of Trading Platforms

    Even with the best futures trading brokers, platform failures can occur during crucial moments.

    Solutions:

    1. Use Redundant Trading Accounts – Keeping accounts with multiple brokers mitigates risk. (Low risk)
    2. Automate Emergency Phone Orders with Broker Support – Calling a broker to execute trades manually during downtime can save losses. (Moderate risk)
    3. Use Cloud-Based Trading Over Locally Installed Software – Some traders rely on cloud platforms, but they still face latency issues. (High risk)
    1. Execution Delays During Flash Crashes

    High-frequency traders (HFTs) dominate the market, sometimes causing delays in execution.

    Solutions:

    1. Use Marketable Limit Orders – These ensure fast execution while controlling price slippage. (Low risk)
    2. Monitor Order Flow Through Level II Data – Helps gauge when to enter/exit trades. (Moderate risk)
    3. Trade Away from Peak HFT Periods – Some traders avoid key HFT periods, but it limits trading opportunities. (High risk)
    1. Exchange Circuit Breaker Halts

    Trading halts due to extreme movements can trap traders in positions.

    Solutions:

    1. Use Hedging Strategies with Inverse ETFs – This helps mitigate loss during trading halts. (Low risk)
    2. Keep Cash Reserves for Post-Halt Trading – Allows capitalizing on post-halt movements. (Moderate risk)
    3. Preemptively Close Positions Before Expected Volatility – Difficult to time accurately. (High risk)
    1. Frontrunning by Large Institutions

    Institutional traders often place massive orders before retail traders, shifting the market.

    Solutions:

    1. Use Iceberg Orders – Hides trade size from the market. (Low risk)
    2. Trade During Off-Peak Hours – Reduces exposure to large players. (Moderate risk)
    3. Follow Institutional Order Flow Analysis – Helps mimic large orders but is difficult. (High risk)
    1. Tax Complexity in Futures Trading

    Futures taxation (60/40 rule) can be confusing and impact net returns.

    Solutions:

    1. Work with a Tax Professional Specializing in Futures – Ensures correct tax handling. (Low risk)
    2. Utilize Tax-Efficient Trading Structures – Certain entities reduce tax burdens. (Moderate risk)
    3. Trade Through Tax-Advantaged Accounts – Limited accessibility for all traders. (High risk)
    1. Broker Insolvency Risk

    Not all futures trading brokers are financially stable, leading to potential fund losses.

    Solutions:

    1. Trade with Well-Capitalized Brokers like Cannon Trading – Choosing established brokers minimizes risks. (Low risk)
    2. Use Segregated Accounts for Funds – Reduces risk in case of broker collapse. (Moderate risk)
    3. Split Trading Capital Among Multiple Brokers – Adds complexity but mitigates single-point failures. (High risk)

The Legacy of Futures Trading and Cannon Trading Company

Futures trading has been an integral part of financial markets for centuries due to its role in hedging, speculation, and price discovery. The commodity brokerage sector has evolved, but firms like Cannon Trading Company, a premier futures broker since 1988, have consistently adapted to industry innovations. By prioritizing trader support, transparent execution, and compliance with NFA regulations, Cannon Trading remains a trusted name in futures trading. The firm’s resilience through market shifts, technological advances, and regulatory changes underscores why trading futures continues to be a cornerstone of global financial markets.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Shocking Risks of Non-Farm Payrolls—Are You Prepared for the Volatility?

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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