Two weeks ago I highlighted the high of the move as a turning point for the yellow metal in the short term when the market achieved a $2003.00 per ounce daily high .
However, on that day the market closed at $1982.00 a troy ounce, a $20.00 plus dollar retracement off the high , I also noted that the 1920.00 area would be a support zone and that those that intended to go long should use a retracement back to that price level as an area to go long, to risk less by employing a risk strategy underneath 1920.0 per ounce.
Kudos for those that did as not only was this important area breached to the downside on April 25th but April 29th, as the market tested this number again and could not hold this level.1920.00 proved to be a very strong area for this market as the intraday trade hit this price ceiling, failed and closed near the lows at 1896.90.
I expect this current price discounting in the gold to temporarily rally hard moments after the Fed release only to sell off at the strength in the US Dollar as a result. It will be interesting to see if my theory works or not.
This should create an opportunity ( AND RISK!!) to sell the gold for a short term , hi volume break down into the low 1800’s. with your risk management technique employed above the 1900.00 area. Inflation is here and from an investment standpoint, because equities and bonds are both weak, (not since the early 80’s have we seen this combination) cash (by way of the US Dollar) is king in the short run.
I rarely recommend using more than 30% of your margin on any single idea and recommend a risk management strategy using, either stops, Options, spreads but prefer not to use the “free hand to click to get out” approach.
Use your disciplines and you will survive to trade another day.
The following are my PERSONAL suggestions on trading during FOMC days:
1.) Reduce trading size
2.) Be extra picky = no trade is better than a bad trade
3.) Choose entry points wisely. Look at longer time frame support and resistance for entry. Example, trader x looking to go long the mini–SP at 4325.00 with a stop at 4319.00, instead “stretch the price bands” due to volatility and place an entry order to buy at 4319.75 and place a stop $250.00 to $500.00 below in this hypothetical example (consider current volatility along with support and resistance levels).
Expect the higher volatility during, right after and during the news conference 30 minutes after the announcement. Expect to see some “vacuum” (low volume, big zigzags) right before the number.
· Consider using automated stops and limits attached to your entry order as the market can move very fast at times.
Keep in mind statement comes out at 1 Pm Central time, the news conference which dissects the language comes out 30 minutes later so the volatility window stretches out.
