Natural Gas & Copper Eye Upside Amid Post-Holiday Market Turbulence; Softs & Metals Lead the Charge

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Busy Friday to Finish a Short Trading Week

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

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It has been a volatile short trading week post President’s Day long weekend.

Wild swings across the board with softs and metals leading the way.

Tomorrow we have new home sales, flash PMI and University of Michigan reports which will be watched closely for the inflation outlook.

Watch both natural gas and copper as these markets are establishing a tend to the upside.

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Daily Levels for February 21st, 2025

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Market Updates: S&P 500, Crude Oil, and Gold Movements

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The Day Ahead in Futures Trading

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil

Gold

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

Indexes:

The March E-mini S&P 500 traded within striking distance of its life-of-contract high posted back on Dec. 4th and 6th (6164.00) breaching that price intraday with a 6166.50 print and closing today at 6163.00

Energy:

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains to a third-consecutive session amid growing supply worries.

March futures for West Texas Intermediate Crude traded briefly above $73.00 per barrel, a ±75 intraday increase and trading up ± 46 cents per barrel at ±$72.31.

If you missed it, EIA Energy Stocks were NOT released today, as is usual.  Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, the report will be release tomorrow, 30 minutes after the EIA Gas Stocks report: 7:30 A.M., Central Time (gas), 8:00 A.M. (energy).

Metals:

Gold prices wavered near unchanged at this blog’s submission after trading ±$15 above and below yesterday’s settlement and near its all-time highs near $2,950 per ounce.

Fueling safe-haven demand for the precious metal, the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on U.S. bound autos and auto-building components, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals as early as April 2.

April gold futures have gained about 12% so far this year, with analysts expecting higher prices in a trade war.  On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce.

Daily Levels for February 20th, 2025

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Dollar Index Eyes 105.47 as Economic and Geopolitical Risks Mount

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Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Dollar Index Eyes 105.47

Movers and Shakers : QUIET Econ data and fed speak tomorrow

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Updated: February 18, 2025 2:01 pm

Russia – Ukraine War Update

–Ukraine’s military said Russia launched a barrage of 147 attack drones against Ukraine overnight. Out of this, the Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 83, while 59 did not reach their targets. Several storage facilities and private residences were reported damaged.

–The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that Ukrainian drones hit one of its major oil pipelines in southern Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station in the Krasnodar region, affecting supply from neighbouring Kazakhstan.

–Ukraine’s Security Service claimed responsibility for the attack on the oil pipeline and said that Moscow’s Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar was also hit, with at least 20 explosions heard in the area.

–Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces captured the settlement of Fyholivka in eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. A second announcement later said that the village of Sverdlikovo in Russia’s Kursk region was taken back from Ukraine’s forces.

–US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Saudi Arabia in advance of planned peace talks between United States and Russian officials over the war in Ukraine.

–Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia would be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy director Yuri Ushakov at the meetings with the US in Riyadh.

–Peskov also said that Russian officials would talk with US counterparts about restoring ties, negotiating a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine and preparing a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

 

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–The Kremlin said any plans to deploy European peacekeeping troops after Kyiv and Moscow strike a peace deal would make the matter complex.

–French President Emmanuel Macron hosted an emergency meeting with leaders from key European Union nations at the Elysee Palace in Paris to discuss the EU’s reaction to Washington’s peace talks with Moscow.

–Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told a media briefing that the Paris meeting, to discuss the US’s policy shift towards Moscow in its war on Ukraine, would be an attempt to prevent peace. -unlike them, we support Donald Trump’s ambitions; unlike them, we support the US-Russian negotiations; unlike them, we want peace in Ukraine,- Szijjarto said.

–Russia’s Lavrov asked why Europe should be invited to join talks on a peace settlement in Ukraine if European politicians want the war to carry on. He also said Russia would not even consider territorial concessions to Ukraine in future peace talks.

–The spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sergii Nykyforov, said that the Ukrainian leader would travel to Saudi Arabia on a long-planned visit the day after the meeting between Russia and US officials wraps up.

–The Ukrainian leader also said he would not recognise any outcome of the Washington-Moscow talks in Saudi Arabia that did not involve Kyiv.

–Zelenskyy met with the United Arab Emirates’s Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a visit to the UAE, where Sheikh Mohammed reportedly committed to supporting efforts for a peaceful resolution to the war and continuing initiatives to ease the humanitarian impact.

–Zelenskyy is now in Turkiye to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia.

-The Dollar Index Eyes 105.47.

 

 

 

Tomorrow:

  • FOMC Minutes
  • Housing Starts
  • NO Crude Oil Numbers ( pushed to Thursday)
March US Dollar Index

The March dollar index negated its original downside PriceCounts off the January high early this month. Now, the chart has activated fresh counts off the larrger leg where the first count projects a run to the 105.47 area. It would take a trade below the November reactionary low to formally negarte the remaining unmet upside objectives.

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Stock Futures suffer Eye-Opening Tumble as CPI Exceeds Expectations

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Trading in Front of Reports – Like Today’s CPI – Stock Futures – a Word to the Wise

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its scheduled Consumer Price Index and to the market’s surprise, it jumped more than anticipated, showing a higher-than-expected 0.5 percent increase from December. It was the fastest monthly increase since August 2023.

Stock Futures

The reaction by the major stock futures contracts was immediate and pronounced. Within a single minute of the report’s release, the E-mini Dow Jones stock futures contract dropped over 400 points, the E-mini S&P 500 stock futures contract dropped 60 points, a $3,000 move and within that same minute the E-mini Nasdaq stock futures contract dropped 311 points, a $6220 move.

CPI

CPI is one of several regularly scheduled reports that can have an impact on the futures markets. There are many such reports on things like crude oil stocks, crop conditions, interest rate decisions and several that look at aspects of the economy.

 

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They all can impact related futures markets’ movement, even if for a span of time as short as a minute.

So, it’s important for traders to take care when trading into an approaching report, as well as afterwards if volatility continues. Even if you’re incorporating STOP orders to offset a position going into a report’s release, fast markets can “jump” over your STOP price and leave your trade exposed to further risk.

1 minute chart from this morning for illustration purposes below!

 

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Daily Levels for February 13th, 2025

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Coffee, Cattle, and Crops: Market Swings Amid Powell & CPI Anticipation

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Coffee

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Movers and Shakers: Tomorrow (CPI) before the open, CSCO After the close

 

Fed Powell’s testimony in the Senate had the market moving today.

Gold started to sell off well before the testimony began, down $25.00 then as Powell spoke @ 10 EST, the market rallied from that point in somewhat of a slough to unchanged, but struggled to breakout and looks to close a shade off yesterday, down 8 bucks. Holding rates for quite some time longer didn’t add fuel to the current rally. Powell testifies tomorrow in the House, same time.

 

The S&P 500 rallied from Powell’s opening remarks 20 points, then fell back at the 2-hour mark to where it began:6070.00 only to rally NEARLY 30 POINTS FROM THERE AFTER THE CONCLUSION. However, they look to close unchanged at the time of this writing. 6088.00.  This was a very tradeable day.

 

After scanning several markets Energies, Bonds, Dollar index. They all finished the day right about where they were prior to Powell’s opening remarks except for the US Dollar, which closed lower as Gold retained some of its luster.

 

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Corn

WASDE was released this morning as well, whose results weighed on domestic Ag row crop prices, Beans down 6 cents, Corn down 7.5-6.25 for old crop, new crop Dec down a penny (will grains in the future be quoted in pennies with the dissolution of the one cent coin?) Wheat down between 2.5 to 7 cents across the board and protein spectrum. Cotton bucked the trend and had a strong rally after the numbers, up .74 basis the May contract.

 

Coffee

As for the softs, Coffee lost some caffeine today, down from its all-time highs, 15 + cents per pound @ 413.45. This drop comes after a strong rally in recent sessions, fueled by supply concerns and robust demand. However, profit-taking and shifting sentiment in the broader commodities market may have contributed to today’s pullback. Traders will be watching for any signs of renewed momentum or further correction in the days ahead, particularly with currency fluctuations and weather patterns in key coffee-growing regions influencing price action. That’s Coffee!

 

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

 

Tomorrow: CPI (Consumer Price Index) before the open, Fed Powell Testimony in the House of Representatives 9 am CST, Fed Bostic 11:00 am CST. Earnings: Cisco After the close, CME Group, before the open

March Feeder Cattle

The January 21st QT Chart of the Day alerted readers that the March feeder cattle chart was approaching its third upside PriceCount objective. After reaching this target area, the chart corrected lower and activated downside PriceCounts in the process. At this point, if you can extend its break with new sustained lows, the second count would project a slide to the 261.59 area.

 

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Daily Levels for February 12th, 2025

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Hidden Market Trends: Copper Joins Coffee and Gold in Notable Moves

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Coffee Anyone? Gold? Copper?

COFFEE

 

While most day traders focus on markets like mini SP, MICRO NQ, bonds and few others, some of the other markets have made some noticeable moves. Coffee, Gold and now Copper.

 

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March copper is activating upside PriceCount objectives off the January lows. The first count projects a possible run to the 4.80 area which is consistent with a challenge of the fall high.

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Daily Levels for February 11th, 2025

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US January Non-Farm Payroll Report: Key Forecasts and Market Impact

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NFP Tomorrow – Non Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

Non Farm Payrolls

US January Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released Friday morning at 7:30 am CT. Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls +170,000 compared to the previous month’s +256,000. The January jobless rate is expected at 4.1%, unchanged compared to the previous month. Average hourly earnings are expected up +0.3% month over month.

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With Non-Farm Payroll coming in tomorrow, We suspect a busy, volatile Friday as other reports and speakers will be out. Make sure to check calendar below.

April Hogs satisfied a second upside PriceCount  objective before turning sideways with a range bound trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 100.96 area.

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Daily Levels for February 7th, 2025

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Market Turbulence and Global Tensions: Key Developments in Politics, Economy, and War

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Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Market turbulence and volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future as global tensions rise.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:19 am

WSJ on Tuesday now reporting President Trump and China’s leader Xi will not speak to each other later today

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:24 am

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that around 20,000 US federal employees accepted buyout offers. The Washington Post today is reporting layoffs of federal employees is likely if too few of them choose to accept buyouts or quit.

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:17 pm

Pres. Trump said he would have talks with his Iranian counterpart, but also said Iran is too close to having and cannot have nuclear weapons

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:23 pm

Pres Trump he would like to Palestinians taken in by Egypt and Jordan, adding they have no alternative but to leave. He is not in favor of Israeli’s settling in Gaza

Russia – Ukraine War Update

–Reuters reports Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday its air force had struck a Russian military command post in Russia’s Kursk region the previous day causing sustained significant damage and casualties. Reuters could not independently verify the statement.

–Ukraine’s military has reported numerous strikes on Russian military and energy facilities in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces have been battling Russian troops in the Kursk region since Ukraine mounted a cross border operation there last year.

–A pro-Russian Ukrainian paramilitary leader, Armen Sarkisyan, was killed along with one other person, and three more people were wounded in a bomb blast inside a residential building in northwest Moscow, Russian state news agency TASS reports.

–Russia’s Investigative Committee said it opened a criminal inquiry after the explosion on charges of murder by means injurious to the public, attempted murder of two or more people and arms trafficking.

–Ukrainian forces are believed to be behind a series of assassinations in Russia. In mid-December, Russian General Igor Kirillov died in a remote-controlled blast in Moscow.

–The United Nations echoed Ukraine’s growing concerns that Russia killed 79 captured Ukrainian soldiers in 24 separate incidents since September.

–A former United Kingdom MP, Jack Lopresti, has joined the Ukrainian International Legion to help fight against Russia, media reports said. Lopresti reportedly travelled to Kyiv in November to help a charity.

 

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–Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Moscow’s air defense units intercepted and destroyed 70 drones in a Ukrainian offensive overnight. The ministry said Kyiv had also targeted energy facilities, including an oil refinery in Volgograd which had caught fire.

–Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for strikes on Russian energy facilities, claiming that it hit a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd and a gas processing plant in Astrakhan. Both establishments supplied fuel to the Russian Army, according to the military.

–State Emergency Service workers of Ukraine work at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava

Ukrainian rescuers working at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava, where at least seven people died and 17 others, including four children, were injured, on February 1, 2025 [Handout/State Emergency Service of Ukraine via EPA-EFE]

–Kyiv’s Air Force said it destroyed 38 of 71 Russian drones launched at Ukraine in an overnight attack. Some 25 drones disappeared from radars without reaching their targets, the Air Force said.

–According to the Reuters news agency, Moscow also said that it was too early for Russia to consider the four-way peace talks model proposed by Zelenskyy, which would include the US, Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Zelenskyy previously said it would be very dangerous if Washington and Moscow held ceasefire talks without involving Kyiv.

–Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, criticized the Finnish government over the publication of an information package for its citizens who are planning or considering volunteering on Ukraine’s side in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

–US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he is seeking a secure supply of rare earth metals from Ukraine in exchange for US aid.

–Moldova’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing the invasion of its airspace by a drone and said it was discussing with allies how to boost airspace defense. The statement detailed that the drone entered from Ukraine’s airspace, but did not identify the origin or likely operator of the drone.

Tomorrow: Disney before the open, Qualcomm Earnings after the close! ADP, Balance of Trade, Barkin Speech 8am CST, ISM Svcs., Fed Jefferson Speech 6:30 pm CST

 

Daily Levels for February 5th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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First and Last Commodity Trading Days February 2025

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First Notice & last trading Days for February

Please see below First Notice and Last Commodity Trading days for February! Make it a disciplined trading month.

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Daily Levels for February 4, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Price Gold Futures

Gold has long been one of the most sought-after commodities, and its value as a trading instrument remains undisputed. Gold futures contracts, introduced as a way for traders to speculate on and hedge against price fluctuations, are pivotal in today’s financial markets. In this comprehensive exploration, we delve into the origins of gold futures contracts, key players behind their establishment, and their role in modern trading. Additionally, we examine potential price movements for natural gas futures in 2025 and assess why Cannon Trading Company is a leading choice for futures traders of all levels.

The Origins of Gold Futures Contracts

Gold trading has a history stretching back millennia, but the formalized trading of gold futures contracts began relatively recently. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), established in 1848, is credited as a pioneer in the creation of futures contracts. Initially focused on agricultural products like wheat and corn, the CBOT laid the foundation for futures trading. The gold futures contract was introduced by the Commodity Exchange, Inc. (COMEX) in 1974. This move came in the wake of significant changes in the global gold market, including the U.S. abandoning the gold standard in 1971, allowing gold prices to float freely.

Key Figures in Gold Futures Development

  • Richard Sandor: Often referred to as the “father of financial futures,” Sandor played a pivotal role in developing new types of financial instruments, including interest rate futures. Although not directly responsible for gold futures, his innovations provided a blueprint for structured futures markets.
  • Leo Melamed: A leading figure in modern futures trading, Melamed’s leadership at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) helped establish the credibility and expansion of futures contracts. His advocacy for innovation likely influenced the early days of trading future contracts like gold.
  • COMEX Leadership: Under the guidance of COMEX executives, gold futures became a reality. They recognized the growing need for a mechanism to hedge against price volatility in a post-gold standard world.

The introduction of gold futures allowed miners, jewelers, and speculators to protect themselves against price swings, leading to increased liquidity and price discovery in the gold market.

Understanding Price Movements in Gold Futures

The price of gold futures is influenced by a combination of macroeconomic factors, geopolitical events, and supply-demand dynamics. Inflation expectations, interest rates, and currency movements—particularly the U.S. dollar—play critical roles in determining price trends.

Real-Life Anecdotes and Case Studies

  • The 2008 Financial Crisis: During the global financial meltdown, gold futures prices surged as investors flocked to the safe-haven commodity. Gold futures, which were trading below $800 per ounce in early 2008, exceeded $1,000 by year’s end. Traders who anticipated the crisis and went long on gold futures reaped significant profits.
  • COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): In another flight to safety, gold futures skyrocketed to all-time highs above $2,000 per ounce in 2020. Traders who correctly interpreted the pandemic’s impact on global economies and central bank policies made substantial gains.
  • Hypothetical Scenario: Imagine a trader in 2025 predicting a weakening dollar due to rising national debt. By taking a long position in gold futures at $2,200 per ounce, they could capitalize on the ensuing rally if the dollar weakens further, driving gold prices to $2,500 or beyond.

Price Movements in Natural Gas Futures Contracts for 2025

Natural gas futures contracts are another critical component of the commodities market. As we move into 2025, traders are closely monitoring trends that could influence natural gas prices. Factors like global energy demand, geopolitical tensions, and weather patterns will play crucial roles.

  • Expected Volatility: Natural gas prices are notoriously volatile due to weather-dependent demand. A colder-than-average winter in the U.S. could spike prices, while mild weather might suppress them.
  • Energy Transition: The global push for cleaner energy is reshaping demand for natural gas. While it remains a key transitional fuel, increased investments in renewables could cap price gains.

Case Study: A Hypothetical Trade

A futures trader in January 2025 anticipates a harsh winter due to meteorological predictions. They buy natural gas futures at $4.50 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). As demand surges and prices reach $6.00 per MMBtu by February, the trader closes their position for a significant profit.

Current Price of Gold Futures Going Into 2025

As of early 2025, the price of gold futures is hovering around $2,100 per ounce. This level reflects ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, concerns about inflation, and central bank actions. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, particularly its stance on interest rates, are likely to influence gold prices throughout the year. Traders should closely monitor economic data releases and geopolitical developments to adjust their strategies accordingly.

Why Cannon Trading Company Excels in Futures Trading

Cannon Trading Company has cemented its reputation as a premier choice for futures traders. Here’s why:

  • Wide Selection of Trading Platforms: Cannon Trading offers access to top-performing platforms like NinjaTrader, TradingView, and CQG, catering to diverse trading styles and needs.
  • Unparalleled Reputation: With decades of experience, Cannon Trading has earned 5 out of 5-star ratings on TrustPilot. The company’s adherence to regulatory standards ensures a trustworthy trading environment.
  • Tailored Services: From beginner-friendly platforms to advanced tools for seasoned traders, Cannon Trading provides customized solutions, including one-on-one support.
  • Educational Resources: The firm’s commitment to education empowers traders with webinars, market analysis, and expert insights.
  • Regulatory Compliance: As a National Futures Association (NFA) member, Cannon Trading adheres to strict guidelines, ensuring transparency and fairness.

Anecdote: A Successful Futures Trader’s Journey with Cannon Trading

Mark, a mid-career investor, transitioned to futures trading in 2020. After struggling with platform inefficiencies at another brokerage, he switched to Cannon Trading. The firm’s support team guided him in setting up his first gold futures trade. Over two years, Mark’s portfolio grew by 35%, thanks to robust analytics tools and timely market insights provided by Cannon Trading.

Hypothetical Scenario: A Beginner’s Experience

Sarah, new to futures trading, joins Cannon Trading in 2025. She starts with a demo account on the TradingView platform, using educational resources to understand the dynamics of gold and natural gas futures. With personalized guidance from a Cannon Trading broker, Sarah transitions to live trading, steadily building her confidence and portfolio.

Gold futures contracts remain a cornerstone of the commodities market, offering traders unparalleled opportunities to hedge and speculate. The introduction of these contracts was a milestone, driven by visionaries who recognized the need for a structured market. In 2025, the outlook for gold futures prices is shaped by macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, while natural gas futures present unique opportunities for weather-driven trades.

For traders at all experience levels, Cannon Trading Company provides an ideal platform for futures contract trading. Its combination of cutting-edge tools, stellar reputation, and commitment to client success ensures a seamless trading experience. Whether you’re a seasoned futures trader or just starting, Cannon Trading offers the resources and support you need to thrive in the dynamic world of futures trading.

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Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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