Market Outlook: May Wheat Satisfies, Key Earnings, Fed Speeches, and Economic Data for the Final Trading Week of the Month

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

May MN Wheat

wheat

In Today’s Issue #1231

  • May Minnesota Wheat – Hot Market of the Week
  • Permanent Demo Available
  • The Week Ahead – NVIDIA, PCE, Housing Numbers, Fed Speeches and More!
  • Futures 102 – Understanding mini NASDAQ 100
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ES intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Trading Demo Available with your StoneX Futures Platform:

This permanent demo is available to all clients using the StoneX futures ( CQG desktop) platform as long as you have a balance.

If you live account is subscribed to live data, your demo will also have live data.

Demo data will run off the market data subscriptions you have.

See example below:

Login to your live trading account: https://m.cqg.com/stonexfutures

In the upper right corner, you should be able to click on your account number and select the demo account, which will be highlighted in yellow.

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Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

The final trading day of the month Next Friday with a full week packed with housing and other economic data, Fed Speak and a hot earning report or two.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. Home Depot before the open, Intuit post close
  • Wed. NVIDIA , Sales Force post close
  • Thu.  quiet
  • Fri. quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon Quiet
  • Tues. Barr 10:45 am CST, Barkin 12:00pm CST
  • Wed. Barkin 7:30 am CST, Bostic 11 am CST
  • Thu. Barr 9 am CST, Bowman 10:45 am CST, Hammack 12:15pm CST, Harker 2:15 CST
  • Fri. Quiet

Economic Data week:

 

  • Mon. Dallas Fed Manufacturing
  • Tue. RedBook, Case Schiller, Consumer confidence, Dallas Fed,
  • Wed. Richmond Fed, Bldg Permits, New Home Sales
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Q2 advance,
  • Fri. Core PCE, Chicago PMI

Futures 102: Understanding the E-mini Nasdaq-100

Course Overview

Learn more about the E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures contract. You will gain an understanding of the E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures contract specifications, spreading between different equity index futures contracts, and the tools available to help investors.

Start Now

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

May MN Wheat

May MN wheat satisfied its third upside PriceCount objective where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally into new sustained highs, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for to the $7.27 area. It takes a trade above the October reactionary high to formally negate the remaining unmet downside counts. That’s May MN Wheat!

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

 

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

ES NZL

PRODUCT

Mini SP500

SYSTEM TYPE

Day Trading

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$36,000

COST

USD 199 / monthly

Get Started

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for February 24th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Natural Gas & Copper Eye Upside Amid Post-Holiday Market Turbulence; Softs & Metals Lead the Charge

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Busy Friday to Finish a Short Trading Week

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

natural gas 2

It has been a volatile short trading week post President’s Day long weekend.

Wild swings across the board with softs and metals leading the way.

Tomorrow we have new home sales, flash PMI and University of Michigan reports which will be watched closely for the inflation outlook.

Watch both natural gas and copper as these markets are establishing a tend to the upside.

Would you like to get real

time news and markets outlook via videos updates daily?

Simply visit us on our market research section. FREE to clients and prospects!

Daily Updates & Market Research

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Daily Levels for February 21st, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Market Updates: S&P 500, Crude Oil, and Gold Movements

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The Day Ahead in Futures Trading

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil

Gold

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

Indexes:

The March E-mini S&P 500 traded within striking distance of its life-of-contract high posted back on Dec. 4th and 6th (6164.00) breaching that price intraday with a 6166.50 print and closing today at 6163.00

Energy:

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains to a third-consecutive session amid growing supply worries.

March futures for West Texas Intermediate Crude traded briefly above $73.00 per barrel, a ±75 intraday increase and trading up ± 46 cents per barrel at ±$72.31.

If you missed it, EIA Energy Stocks were NOT released today, as is usual.  Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, the report will be release tomorrow, 30 minutes after the EIA Gas Stocks report: 7:30 A.M., Central Time (gas), 8:00 A.M. (energy).

Metals:

Gold prices wavered near unchanged at this blog’s submission after trading ±$15 above and below yesterday’s settlement and near its all-time highs near $2,950 per ounce.

Fueling safe-haven demand for the precious metal, the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on U.S. bound autos and auto-building components, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals as early as April 2.

April gold futures have gained about 12% so far this year, with analysts expecting higher prices in a trade war.  On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce.

Daily Levels for February 20th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Dollar Index Eyes 105.47 as Economic and Geopolitical Risks Mount

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dollar index

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Dollar Index Eyes 105.47

Movers and Shakers : QUIET Econ data and fed speak tomorrow

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Updated: February 18, 2025 2:01 pm

Russia – Ukraine War Update

–Ukraine’s military said Russia launched a barrage of 147 attack drones against Ukraine overnight. Out of this, the Ukrainian Air Force reported shooting down 83, while 59 did not reach their targets. Several storage facilities and private residences were reported damaged.

–The Caspian Pipeline Consortium said that Ukrainian drones hit one of its major oil pipelines in southern Russia’s Kropotkinskaya pumping station in the Krasnodar region, affecting supply from neighbouring Kazakhstan.

–Ukraine’s Security Service claimed responsibility for the attack on the oil pipeline and said that Moscow’s Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar was also hit, with at least 20 explosions heard in the area.

–Russia’s Defence Ministry said its forces captured the settlement of Fyholivka in eastern Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. A second announcement later said that the village of Sverdlikovo in Russia’s Kursk region was taken back from Ukraine’s forces.

–US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Saudi Arabia in advance of planned peace talks between United States and Russian officials over the war in Ukraine.

–Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that Russia would be represented by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and foreign policy director Yuri Ushakov at the meetings with the US in Riyadh.

–Peskov also said that Russian officials would talk with US counterparts about restoring ties, negotiating a peaceful settlement to the war in Ukraine and preparing a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump.

 

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–The Kremlin said any plans to deploy European peacekeeping troops after Kyiv and Moscow strike a peace deal would make the matter complex.

–French President Emmanuel Macron hosted an emergency meeting with leaders from key European Union nations at the Elysee Palace in Paris to discuss the EU’s reaction to Washington’s peace talks with Moscow.

–Hungary’s Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto told a media briefing that the Paris meeting, to discuss the US’s policy shift towards Moscow in its war on Ukraine, would be an attempt to prevent peace. -unlike them, we support Donald Trump’s ambitions; unlike them, we support the US-Russian negotiations; unlike them, we want peace in Ukraine,- Szijjarto said.

–Russia’s Lavrov asked why Europe should be invited to join talks on a peace settlement in Ukraine if European politicians want the war to carry on. He also said Russia would not even consider territorial concessions to Ukraine in future peace talks.

–The spokesperson for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Sergii Nykyforov, said that the Ukrainian leader would travel to Saudi Arabia on a long-planned visit the day after the meeting between Russia and US officials wraps up.

–The Ukrainian leader also said he would not recognise any outcome of the Washington-Moscow talks in Saudi Arabia that did not involve Kyiv.

–Zelenskyy met with the United Arab Emirates’s Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during a visit to the UAE, where Sheikh Mohammed reportedly committed to supporting efforts for a peaceful resolution to the war and continuing initiatives to ease the humanitarian impact.

–Zelenskyy is now in Turkiye to meet with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss prisoner exchanges between Ukraine and Russia.

-The Dollar Index Eyes 105.47.

 

 

 

Tomorrow:

  • FOMC Minutes
  • Housing Starts
  • NO Crude Oil Numbers ( pushed to Thursday)
March US Dollar Index

The March dollar index negated its original downside PriceCounts off the January high early this month. Now, the chart has activated fresh counts off the larrger leg where the first count projects a run to the 105.47 area. It would take a trade below the November reactionary low to formally negarte the remaining unmet upside objectives.

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Daily Levels for February 19th, 2025

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Stock Futures suffer Eye-Opening Tumble as CPI Exceeds Expectations

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Trading in Front of Reports – Like Today’s CPI – Stock Futures – a Word to the Wise

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its scheduled Consumer Price Index and to the market’s surprise, it jumped more than anticipated, showing a higher-than-expected 0.5 percent increase from December. It was the fastest monthly increase since August 2023.

Stock Futures

The reaction by the major stock futures contracts was immediate and pronounced. Within a single minute of the report’s release, the E-mini Dow Jones stock futures contract dropped over 400 points, the E-mini S&P 500 stock futures contract dropped 60 points, a $3,000 move and within that same minute the E-mini Nasdaq stock futures contract dropped 311 points, a $6220 move.

CPI

CPI is one of several regularly scheduled reports that can have an impact on the futures markets. There are many such reports on things like crude oil stocks, crop conditions, interest rate decisions and several that look at aspects of the economy.

 

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They all can impact related futures markets’ movement, even if for a span of time as short as a minute.

So, it’s important for traders to take care when trading into an approaching report, as well as afterwards if volatility continues. Even if you’re incorporating STOP orders to offset a position going into a report’s release, fast markets can “jump” over your STOP price and leave your trade exposed to further risk.

1 minute chart from this morning for illustration purposes below!

 

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Daily Levels for February 13th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Coffee, Cattle, and Crops: Market Swings Amid Powell & CPI Anticipation

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Coffee

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Movers and Shakers: Tomorrow (CPI) before the open, CSCO After the close

 

Fed Powell’s testimony in the Senate had the market moving today.

Gold started to sell off well before the testimony began, down $25.00 then as Powell spoke @ 10 EST, the market rallied from that point in somewhat of a slough to unchanged, but struggled to breakout and looks to close a shade off yesterday, down 8 bucks. Holding rates for quite some time longer didn’t add fuel to the current rally. Powell testifies tomorrow in the House, same time.

 

The S&P 500 rallied from Powell’s opening remarks 20 points, then fell back at the 2-hour mark to where it began:6070.00 only to rally NEARLY 30 POINTS FROM THERE AFTER THE CONCLUSION. However, they look to close unchanged at the time of this writing. 6088.00.  This was a very tradeable day.

 

After scanning several markets Energies, Bonds, Dollar index. They all finished the day right about where they were prior to Powell’s opening remarks except for the US Dollar, which closed lower as Gold retained some of its luster.

 

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Corn

WASDE was released this morning as well, whose results weighed on domestic Ag row crop prices, Beans down 6 cents, Corn down 7.5-6.25 for old crop, new crop Dec down a penny (will grains in the future be quoted in pennies with the dissolution of the one cent coin?) Wheat down between 2.5 to 7 cents across the board and protein spectrum. Cotton bucked the trend and had a strong rally after the numbers, up .74 basis the May contract.

 

Coffee

As for the softs, Coffee lost some caffeine today, down from its all-time highs, 15 + cents per pound @ 413.45. This drop comes after a strong rally in recent sessions, fueled by supply concerns and robust demand. However, profit-taking and shifting sentiment in the broader commodities market may have contributed to today’s pullback. Traders will be watching for any signs of renewed momentum or further correction in the days ahead, particularly with currency fluctuations and weather patterns in key coffee-growing regions influencing price action. That’s Coffee!

 

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

 

Tomorrow: CPI (Consumer Price Index) before the open, Fed Powell Testimony in the House of Representatives 9 am CST, Fed Bostic 11:00 am CST. Earnings: Cisco After the close, CME Group, before the open

March Feeder Cattle

The January 21st QT Chart of the Day alerted readers that the March feeder cattle chart was approaching its third upside PriceCount objective. After reaching this target area, the chart corrected lower and activated downside PriceCounts in the process. At this point, if you can extend its break with new sustained lows, the second count would project a slide to the 261.59 area.

 

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Daily Levels for February 12th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Hidden Market Trends: Copper Joins Coffee and Gold in Notable Moves

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Coffee Anyone? Gold? Copper?

COFFEE

 

While most day traders focus on markets like mini SP, MICRO NQ, bonds and few others, some of the other markets have made some noticeable moves. Coffee, Gold and now Copper.

 

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March copper is activating upside PriceCount objectives off the January lows. The first count projects a possible run to the 4.80 area which is consistent with a challenge of the fall high.

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Daily Levels for February 11th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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US January Non-Farm Payroll Report: Key Forecasts and Market Impact

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NFP Tomorrow – Non Farm Payrolls Tomorrow

Non Farm Payrolls

US January Non-Farm Payrolls data will be released Friday morning at 7:30 am CT. Economists are forecasting non-farm payrolls +170,000 compared to the previous month’s +256,000. The January jobless rate is expected at 4.1%, unchanged compared to the previous month. Average hourly earnings are expected up +0.3% month over month.

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With Non-Farm Payroll coming in tomorrow, We suspect a busy, volatile Friday as other reports and speakers will be out. Make sure to check calendar below.

April Hogs satisfied a second upside PriceCount  objective before turning sideways with a range bound trade. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a potential run to the 100.96 area.

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Daily Levels for February 7th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Market Turbulence and Global Tensions: Key Developments in Politics, Economy, and War

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Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Market turbulence and volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future as global tensions rise.

Choose your opportunities wisely.

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:19 am

WSJ on Tuesday now reporting President Trump and China’s leader Xi will not speak to each other later today

Updated: February 4, 2025 11:24 am

Bloomberg reported on Tuesday that around 20,000 US federal employees accepted buyout offers. The Washington Post today is reporting layoffs of federal employees is likely if too few of them choose to accept buyouts or quit.

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:17 pm

Pres. Trump said he would have talks with his Iranian counterpart, but also said Iran is too close to having and cannot have nuclear weapons

 

Updated: February 4, 2025 2:23 pm

Pres Trump he would like to Palestinians taken in by Egypt and Jordan, adding they have no alternative but to leave. He is not in favor of Israeli’s settling in Gaza

Russia – Ukraine War Update

–Reuters reports Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday its air force had struck a Russian military command post in Russia’s Kursk region the previous day causing sustained significant damage and casualties. Reuters could not independently verify the statement.

–Ukraine’s military has reported numerous strikes on Russian military and energy facilities in recent weeks. Ukrainian forces have been battling Russian troops in the Kursk region since Ukraine mounted a cross border operation there last year.

–A pro-Russian Ukrainian paramilitary leader, Armen Sarkisyan, was killed along with one other person, and three more people were wounded in a bomb blast inside a residential building in northwest Moscow, Russian state news agency TASS reports.

–Russia’s Investigative Committee said it opened a criminal inquiry after the explosion on charges of murder by means injurious to the public, attempted murder of two or more people and arms trafficking.

–Ukrainian forces are believed to be behind a series of assassinations in Russia. In mid-December, Russian General Igor Kirillov died in a remote-controlled blast in Moscow.

–The United Nations echoed Ukraine’s growing concerns that Russia killed 79 captured Ukrainian soldiers in 24 separate incidents since September.

–A former United Kingdom MP, Jack Lopresti, has joined the Ukrainian International Legion to help fight against Russia, media reports said. Lopresti reportedly travelled to Kyiv in November to help a charity.

 

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–Russia’s Ministry of Defense said Moscow’s air defense units intercepted and destroyed 70 drones in a Ukrainian offensive overnight. The ministry said Kyiv had also targeted energy facilities, including an oil refinery in Volgograd which had caught fire.

–Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for strikes on Russian energy facilities, claiming that it hit a Russian oil refinery in Volgograd and a gas processing plant in Astrakhan. Both establishments supplied fuel to the Russian Army, according to the military.

–State Emergency Service workers of Ukraine work at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava

Ukrainian rescuers working at the site of a rocket strike on a residential building in Poltava, where at least seven people died and 17 others, including four children, were injured, on February 1, 2025 [Handout/State Emergency Service of Ukraine via EPA-EFE]

–Kyiv’s Air Force said it destroyed 38 of 71 Russian drones launched at Ukraine in an overnight attack. Some 25 drones disappeared from radars without reaching their targets, the Air Force said.

–According to the Reuters news agency, Moscow also said that it was too early for Russia to consider the four-way peace talks model proposed by Zelenskyy, which would include the US, Ukraine, Russia and the EU. Zelenskyy previously said it would be very dangerous if Washington and Moscow held ceasefire talks without involving Kyiv.

–Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, criticized the Finnish government over the publication of an information package for its citizens who are planning or considering volunteering on Ukraine’s side in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.

–US President Donald Trump told reporters in the Oval Office that he is seeking a secure supply of rare earth metals from Ukraine in exchange for US aid.

–Moldova’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement denouncing the invasion of its airspace by a drone and said it was discussing with allies how to boost airspace defense. The statement detailed that the drone entered from Ukraine’s airspace, but did not identify the origin or likely operator of the drone.

Tomorrow: Disney before the open, Qualcomm Earnings after the close! ADP, Balance of Trade, Barkin Speech 8am CST, ISM Svcs., Fed Jefferson Speech 6:30 pm CST

 

Daily Levels for February 5th, 2025

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First and Last Commodity Trading Days February 2025

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First Notice & last trading Days for February

Please see below First Notice and Last Commodity Trading days for February! Make it a disciplined trading month.

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Daily Levels for February 4, 2025

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