Copper Prices Surge $6,500 per Contract After Trump’s 25% Tariff Bombshell!

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Markets Highlights on Copper

Copper

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

General:

The big one! It’s that time of the month again: we’re a couple of days from when the Labor Dept. releases its monthly Non-farm payrolls report. It’s widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy and the report is released at 7:30 A.M., Central Time on the first Friday of the month.

Ahead of that, today the ADP National Employment Report showed payrolls increased by 77,000 jobs in February, the smallest gain since July 2024, after rising 186,000 in January. Economists had forecast private employment advancing 140,000.

The ADP report, jointly developed with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, likely exaggerates the labor market slowdown and has no correlation with the government’s employment report.

 Softs:

Arabica coffee futures rose sharply today with the market heading back up towards recent record highs. May ICE coffee rose almost 5% to $4.1855 per lb. intraday. Traders indicated the market showing signs of resuming its upward trend after suffering a sharp setback which took prices from a record high of $4.2995 on Feb. 11 to a low of $3.6630 a week ago – a ±$23,900 per contract correction! The market was keeping a close watch on the weather in top grower Brazil with hot, dry conditions raising some concerns about the upcoming crop.

Energy:

Crude oil futures settled down for the fourth consecutive session today after U.S. crude oil stockpiles posted a larger-than-expected build, adding a further headwind as investors worried about OPEC+ plans to increase output in April and U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. April West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) settled down $1.95, or 2.86%, to $66.31 a barrel, its lowest since November ’24. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia, decided on Monday to proceed with a planned April oil output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, its first since 2022.

Metals:

Copper

CME/COMEX copper futures soared today following President Donald Trump’s announced 25% tariffs on copper imports during his Tuesday night speech to Congress. May copper rose ±26 cents/lb. (±5.7% as of this blog post – a $6,500 per contract move – to a $4.825/lb. intraday high.

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April Crude Oil

April crude oil is completing its second downside PriceCount objective to the 66.53 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. At this point, IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the third count would project a possible slide to a new contract low around 62.78. A trade below the October reactionary low would formally negate the remaining unmet upside objectives.

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Futures Gold

Gold has long been a symbol of wealth and a cornerstone of financial systems worldwide. In the realm of futures trading, gold futures contracts offer traders a unique opportunity to speculate on the future price movements of this precious metal. This comprehensive exploration delves into the nuances of gold futures, shedding light on lesser-known facts, trading techniques, and the inherent risks involved. Additionally, we’ll examine why Cannon Trading Company stands out as a premier choice for traders navigating the futures markets.

Gold Futures Contracts

A gold futures contract is a standardized agreement to buy or sell a specific quantity of gold at a predetermined price on a set future date. These contracts are traded on exchanges like the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), providing a platform for hedgers and speculators to manage their exposure to gold price fluctuations.

Ten Obscure Facts About Gold Futures Contracts

  1. The “Backwardation” Phenomenon: While commodities typically exhibit “contango,” where futures prices are higher than spot prices due to storage and financing costs, gold occasionally experiences “backwardation.” In this scenario, the spot price exceeds the futures price, often indicating strong immediate demand or supply constraints.
  2. “EFP” Transactions: Exchange for Physical (EFP) is a mechanism allowing traders to swap a futures position for the underlying physical commodity. In gold trading, this enables the conversion of paper contracts into actual bullion, facilitating physical delivery outside the exchange.
  3. “Tick” Size and Value: In gold futures trading, a “tick” represents the minimum price movement of the contract. For COMEX gold futures, the tick size is $0.10 per troy ounce, equating to a $10 movement per contract, given the standard contract size of 100 troy ounces.
  4. “Initial” and “Maintenance” Margins: Traders are required to deposit an initial margin to open a position in gold futures. To keep the position open, a maintenance margin must be maintained. If the account balance falls below this level due to adverse price movements, a margin call is issued, requiring additional funds.
  5. “Volume” vs. “Open Interest”: Volume refers to the number of contracts traded within a specific period, while open interest denotes the total number of outstanding contracts at the end of that period. Analyzing both metrics provides insights into market liquidity and potential price trends.
  6. “Spread Trading” Strategies: Traders employ spread trading by simultaneously buying and selling gold futures contracts with different delivery months or against other commodities. This approach aims to profit from the price differential between the two positions, reducing exposure to outright price movements.
  7. “Delivery” Process Nuances: While many traders close their positions before expiration, those holding contracts into the delivery month must be aware of the delivery process. On COMEX, gold delivery involves the transfer of warehouse receipts, representing specific bars stored in approved facilities, rather than the physical movement of gold.
  8. “Position Limits” and Accountability: Exchanges impose position limits to prevent market manipulation and excessive speculation. Traders exceeding certain thresholds may face increased scrutiny and are required to provide justification for their large positions.
  9. “Circuit Breakers” in Gold Futures: To curb extreme volatility, exchanges implement circuit breakers that temporarily halt trading if prices move beyond predefined thresholds within a session. This mechanism allows traders to assess information and make informed decisions during turbulent market conditions.
  10. “E-Mini” Gold Futures: Beyond the standard 100 troy ounce contract, traders can access E-Mini gold futures, which represent 50 troy ounces. These smaller contracts offer flexibility for those seeking exposure to gold with reduced capital requirements.

Real-Life Case Studies in Gold Futures Trading

Case Study 1: The 2011 Gold Price Surge

In 2011, gold prices reached an all-time high, driven by economic uncertainty and currency devaluation fears. Savvy traders who anticipated this uptrend entered long positions in gold futures early in the year. For instance, a trader buying a gold futures contract at $1,400 per ounce in January and selling at the peak of $1,900 in August would have realized a profit of $50,000 per contract (a $500 increase per ounce over 100 ounces).

Case Study 2: The 2020 Pandemic-Induced Volatility

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 led to unprecedented volatility across financial markets, including gold. Initially, gold prices dropped as investors liquidated assets for cash. However, as central banks implemented expansive monetary policies, gold rebounded, reaching new highs. Traders employing spread strategies, such as long gold and short equities, capitalized on the divergent performance between asset classes during this period.

Risks Associated with Gold Futures Trading

While gold futures offer lucrative opportunities, they also come with inherent risks:

  • Leverage Risk: Futures trading involves significant leverage, amplifying both gains and losses. A small adverse price movement can lead to substantial losses, potentially exceeding the initial investment.
  • Market Risk: Gold prices are influenced by various factors, including geopolitical events, currency fluctuations, and macroeconomic indicators. Unexpected developments can lead to sharp price movements.
  • Liquidity Risk: During periods of low trading volume, entering or exiting positions at desired prices may be challenging, leading to slippage and unfavorable fills.
  • Margin Calls: Adverse price movements can erode account equity, triggering margin calls. Failure to meet these calls can result in forced liquidation of positions at unfavorable prices.

Why Choose Cannon Trading Company for Gold Futures Trading?

Selecting the right futures broker is crucial for successful trading. Cannon Trading Company distinguishes itself through several key attributes:

  • Diverse Trading Platforms: Cannon offers a wide selection of top-performing trading platforms, catering to the varied needs of futures traders. Whether you’re a novice or an experienced trader, you’ll find a platform that aligns with your trading style and preferences.
  • Stellar Reputation: With decades of experience in the futures markets, Cannon has earned a 5 out of 5-star rating on TrustPilot. This reflects consistent client satisfaction and trust in their services.
  • Regulatory Excellence: Cannon Trading maintains an exemplary reputation with regulatory bodies, ensuring compliance and fostering a secure trading environment.
  • Educational Resources: Understanding that informed traders are successful traders, Cannon provides a wealth of educational materials, including webinars, articles, and personalized consultations.
  • Dedicated Support: Clients have access to a team of experienced brokers and support staff, ready to assist with technical issues, market insights, and strategic guidance.

Gold futures trading presents a dynamic avenue for traders to engage with one of the world’s most valued commodities. By understanding the intricate aspects of gold futures contracts, including obscure facts and specialized trading techniques, traders can navigate this market with greater proficiency. However, it’s imperative to recognize and manage the associated risks diligently.

Partnering with a reputable and experienced futures broker, such as Cannon Trading Company, can significantly enhance the trading experience. Their comprehensive offerings, regulatory integrity, and commitment to client success make them an excellent choice for traders at all levels.

 

Nasdaq, S&P 500 Ride the Volatility Lightning! Market Insights & Economic Highlights

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nasdaq

Movers & Shakers by John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Nasdaq

Movers and Shakers: Volatile Day Ahead, Full of Reports

President Trump addressing joint session of congress this evening @ 9 PM Eastern, 6 PM Pacific

Market volatility is here to stay for the foreseeable future, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 sliding downward at a serious clip.

Choose your opportunities wisely. Don’t miss out on the market news highlights of the day recap below!

Nasdaq, S&P 500

The S&P 500 experienced an 114-point slide ($5700 per contract) The market has continued to recover from the initial losses and look to close in – 50-point range near 5820.00 basis the March contract. The Nasdaq, after taking a drubbing down over 400 points earlier in the session, was running as positive as up 200. As, the Nasdaq is virtually unchanged now as of this typing while the DOW looks to subtract over .1% into the 43000 area.

Tariff concerns creating a lack of confidence in the US Dollar as a safe-haven currency has pushed thru support at 106.00 looking to close in the 105.70 area for the first time since December 10th. The Grain markets should have been lower by much more than they were, Soybeans down 14 cents, Wheat down 11 and Corn down 4 /12 cents, if the dollar were stronger today, our old crop supply is getting cheaper by the day.

Crude oil, after experiencing a $1.70 range will be closing near unchanged around the 68.40 area basis the April contract just .70 lower than one week ago.

Econ Data: ADP, S&P Global Svcs. PMI, Factory orders, ISM Svcs. PMI, EIA Crude Inventories, Beige Book

FED Speak: Quiet

Earnings: Quiet

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May Soybeans

May soybeans activated downside PriceCount objectives off the February recovery peak and accelerated to the second objective. It would be normal to get a near term reacion from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF the chart can sustain further weakness, the third count would project a slide to the 9.73 area. The trade below the January reactionary low formally negated the remaining unmet upside objectives.

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Daily Levels for March 5th, 2025

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March Contract Notices Coming in Hot! First Notice Day & Last Trading Day Guidelines

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First & Last trading Days for March 2025

March Contract Notices

FND/LTD:

Below are the March contracts which are entering First Notice or Last Trading Day for March.

Be advised, for contracts that are deliverable, it is requested that all LONG positions be exited two days prior to First Notice and ALL positions be exited the day prior to Last Trading Day.

March Contract:

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June 10 Year Notes:

112’02 next target?

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Daily Levels for March 4th, 2025

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Micro E-Mini & Micro Grains: Expanding Futures Trading Flexibility

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1232

Micro Grains in the Spotlight!

micro grains

  • MICRO Grains are available!

  • The Week Ahead – Non Farm Payrolls, Powell Speaking & More Volatility
  • Futures 102 – Understanding MICRO e-minis
  • Hot Market of the Week – May Cotton
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – ES intraday System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Micro Grains are available:

Micro Grains: This permanent demo is available to all clients using the StoneX futures ( CQG desktop) platform as long as you have a balance.

CME Group, the world’s leading derivatives marketplace, announced in late January that it will launch a suite of micro grain and oilseed futures contracts. These contracts will be cash-settled and be one-tenth the size of the exchange’s Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal futures contracts.

Their first day of trading was this last Monday, Feb. 24.

Quoting John Ricci, Managing Director and Global Head of Agriculture from CME Group’s press release: “Our benchmark grain and oilseed futures products are the most liquid and highly-utilized markets in global agriculture today. These smaller-sized contracts will provide additional flexibility for market participants to manage their agricultural portfolios with greater precision.”

Micro Corn, Wheat, Soybean, Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal futures will be listed by and subject to the rules of CBOT. For more information and additional contract specs, please visit www.cmegroup.com/microags.

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Final Week of Standard time in the U.S. “Spring Forward!”

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to the potential for tariff implementations creating uncertainty in the marketplace. Therefore, increased volatility expectations.

Highlights next week will also include Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday prior to cash market open. 9 fed speakers including Fed Chair J. Powell on Friday morning as earnings reports begin dwindling with 378 total reports while we are in the 8th inning of earnings season, the reports will be impacting the indices much less than in past weeks.

Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. quiet
  • Tue. Crowdstrike post close
  • Wed. quiet
  • Thu.  Costco and Broadcom post close
  • Fri. quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon. Musalem 10:35 am CST
  • Tues. Williams 1:20 pm CST
  • Wed. quiet
  • Thu. Waller 2:30 pm CST, Bostic 5:00 pm CST
  • Fri. Bowman 9:15 am, Williams 9:45 am, Kugler 11:20 pm, Fed Chair J. Powell 11:30 am, Kugler 12:00 pm all times CST.

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. S&P Global Mfg. PMI, ISM Mfg. PMI,
  • Tue. RedBook,
  • Wed. ADP, S&P Global Svcs. PMI, Factory orders, ISM Svcs. PMI, EIA Crude Inventories, Biege Book
  • Thur. Balance of Trade, Initial Jobless Claims, EIA Nat Gas
  • Fri Non-Farm Payrolls

Futures 102: MICRO E-Mini Futures

Course Overview

The next big thing in equities trading

This course will provide insight into the Micro E-mini futures, including a size comparison to classic E-mini contracts, a look at enhanced exposure and the benefits Micro E-mini futures can offer you.

More precisely hedge index exposure and manage your positions with more versatility, since Micro E-mini futures are fungible with classic E-mini contracts. Even get examples of how to hedge more precisely with Micro E-mini futures.

Start Now

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

May Cotton

May cotton has resumed its break with a new contract low. This has the chart taking aim at its third downside PriceCount objective to the 64.60 area.

PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been, but where we might be going next!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.

ES NZL

The NZL automated trading system utilizes two main ALGOS in an attempt to identify either an early trend in the trading day and/or high percentage counter trend set ups.

The system is fully automated and runs between the hours of 4 AM central and 3:15 PM Central.

The model relies on volume charts rather than time charts.

PRODUCT

Mini SP500

SYSTEM TYPE

Day Trading

Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital

$36,000

COST

USD 199 / monthly

Get Started

 

Learn More

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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 3rd, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Market Prep: Last Trading Day of February, March Bitcoin, PCE Report & Key Trading Checklist

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Different Markets for Day Trading, March Bitcoin

bitcoin

March Bitcoin:

Tomorrow is the last trading day for February. Last and first trading days of the months can at times be more volatile and at times have a chance to become a trending day.

Also tomorrow is PCE ( Personal Consumption Expenditures, an inflation indicator watched closely by the market).

Last but not least if you are trading bonds and ten years, time to trade the June contract.

Day Trading

Trader’s Check List:

·        Review prior day statement

·        Check for any working orders on your platforms.

·        Be aware of contract rollover dates

·        Set a daily loss limit and learn NOT to overtrade

·        Understand what reports are coming out today

·        Make sure you are not distracted

·        Calculate appropriate trading size based on current volatility and account size

·        Start with Larger Time Frame charts to get proper perspective

·        Understand what your goal is

·        Measure your success or lack of

·        Spend time furthering your trading education and exploring different methods

·        Put trading in perspective and make sure the overall psychology of trading fits you.

 

 

 

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March Bitcoin

The rally in March bitcoin ran out of momentum, leaving behind an interim top in December. Now, on the correction lower, the chart has activated downside PriceCount objectives. The first count has been completed. IF you can sustain further weakness, the second count would project a possible slide to the 76,000 area..

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Daily Levels for February 28th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Market Updates: S&P 500, Crude Oil, and Gold Movements

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The Day Ahead in Futures Trading

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil

Gold

Bullet Points, Highlights, Announcements

Indexes:

The March E-mini S&P 500 traded within striking distance of its life-of-contract high posted back on Dec. 4th and 6th (6164.00) breaching that price intraday with a 6166.50 print and closing today at 6163.00

Energy:

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, extending gains to a third-consecutive session amid growing supply worries.

March futures for West Texas Intermediate Crude traded briefly above $73.00 per barrel, a ±75 intraday increase and trading up ± 46 cents per barrel at ±$72.31.

If you missed it, EIA Energy Stocks were NOT released today, as is usual.  Due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, the report will be release tomorrow, 30 minutes after the EIA Gas Stocks report: 7:30 A.M., Central Time (gas), 8:00 A.M. (energy).

Metals:

Gold prices wavered near unchanged at this blog’s submission after trading ±$15 above and below yesterday’s settlement and near its all-time highs near $2,950 per ounce.

Fueling safe-haven demand for the precious metal, the Trump administration plans to impose tariffs of around 25% on U.S. bound autos and auto-building components, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals as early as April 2.

April gold futures have gained about 12% so far this year, with analysts expecting higher prices in a trade war.  On Monday, Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce.

Daily Levels for February 20th, 2025

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Stock Futures suffer Eye-Opening Tumble as CPI Exceeds Expectations

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Trading in Front of Reports – Like Today’s CPI – Stock Futures – a Word to the Wise

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

This morning the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its scheduled Consumer Price Index and to the market’s surprise, it jumped more than anticipated, showing a higher-than-expected 0.5 percent increase from December. It was the fastest monthly increase since August 2023.

Stock Futures

The reaction by the major stock futures contracts was immediate and pronounced. Within a single minute of the report’s release, the E-mini Dow Jones stock futures contract dropped over 400 points, the E-mini S&P 500 stock futures contract dropped 60 points, a $3,000 move and within that same minute the E-mini Nasdaq stock futures contract dropped 311 points, a $6220 move.

CPI

CPI is one of several regularly scheduled reports that can have an impact on the futures markets. There are many such reports on things like crude oil stocks, crop conditions, interest rate decisions and several that look at aspects of the economy.

 

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They all can impact related futures markets’ movement, even if for a span of time as short as a minute.

So, it’s important for traders to take care when trading into an approaching report, as well as afterwards if volatility continues. Even if you’re incorporating STOP orders to offset a position going into a report’s release, fast markets can “jump” over your STOP price and leave your trade exposed to further risk.

1 minute chart from this morning for illustration purposes below!

 

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Daily Levels for February 13th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Hidden Market Trends: Copper Joins Coffee and Gold in Notable Moves

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Coffee Anyone? Gold? Copper?

COFFEE

 

While most day traders focus on markets like mini SP, MICRO NQ, bonds and few others, some of the other markets have made some noticeable moves. Coffee, Gold and now Copper.

 

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March copper is activating upside PriceCount objectives off the January lows. The first count projects a possible run to the 4.80 area which is consistent with a challenge of the fall high.

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Daily Levels for February 11th, 2025

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All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

or wherever you listen to podcasts!

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April Gold Futures Hit Record High Amid Tariff Concerns and Weaker Dollar

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Gold Futures Trading at All Time Highs!

April gold futures – the most-active futures contract – hit a new all-time high as the dollar pushed lower and traders sought safety amid concerns over the new U.S. administration’s tariff measures. April gold settled up 2.7% at $2,845.20 per ounce, after hitting a record intraday high of $2,853.20 earlier in the day. The prior record of $2,800.80 was set in late October.

 Gold Weekly Chart with Possible targets for your Review Below:

Trade gold futures and select from three different contract sizes – 100-oz., 50-oz. and 10-oz. – with a FREE, top-of-the-line trading platform that includes built-in charts, hundreds of indicators, a great DOM and super low day trading margins.

Don’t have time to do it yourself? Work with an experienced broker!

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Daily Levels for January 31st, 2024

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Good Trading!
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.