About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
The S&P 500 Index Futures, also known as standard & poor’s 500 index futures, is a financial derivative that allows traders to speculate on the future value of the S&P 500 Index, one of the most widely followed stock market indices in the world. These futures contracts serve as a means of managing risk, offering both hedging capabilities and speculative opportunities. The s and p 500 futures contract provides exposure to the U.S. stock market’s performance without requiring traders to hold the actual underlying stocks. This contract’s prominence has made it one of the most traded assets globally, reflecting trends, economic indicators, and market sentiment.
Origins and Initial Trading
The standard and poor’s 500 futures contract has its roots in the financial markets of the early 1980s. Developed by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), it was officially introduced for trading in 1982. The concept was initially designed to give institutional and retail investors an efficient way to hedge their portfolios against fluctuations in the S&P 500, which represents approximately 80% of the total U.S. market capitalization.
In the late 1970s, U.S. markets were becoming increasingly volatile due to various economic factors, such as inflation and changes in monetary policy. The S&P 500 index, established decades earlier, had gained a solid reputation for accurately representing the U.S. economy’s performance. As a result, financial professionals and individual investors alike were seeking new ways to protect their investments. The development of spx index futures was a direct response to these demands, providing an innovative tool for managing equity risk.
Historical Price Movements
Since its inception, standard & poor’s 500 index futures have experienced significant price fluctuations, reflecting changes in market sentiment, macroeconomic factors, and global events. Initially, these futures contracts began trading at levels near the index’s value, allowing investors to gain exposure to the market’s performance with minimal capital. Throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the S&P 500 index experienced steady growth as the economy expanded, with notable milestones in the technology and internet boom of the late 1990s.
The early 2000s, however, marked a significant downturn in the market due to the dot-com bubble. This period saw the s and p 500 futures contract decline sharply as technology stocks collapsed. The S&P 500 index futures reached their lowest levels during the early 2000s recession, but the market eventually rebounded due to monetary policy changes and renewed investor confidence. The 2008 global financial crisis led to another significant decline in standard and poor’s 500 futures, reflecting the uncertainty and economic strain at the time. However, aggressive fiscal policies and quantitative easing measures helped stabilize the market, leading to a prolonged recovery.
In the 2010s, the s&p 500 futures index saw remarkable growth, reaching new highs as technology stocks led the way and economic conditions improved. The introduction of automated and algorithmic trading contributed to increased liquidity and trading volume, propelling the futures contracts’ popularity further. Most recently, futures s&p 500 experienced unprecedented volatility due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which led to sharp declines and a rapid recovery as governments and central banks around the world implemented economic stimulus measures. By 2024, the futures sp trades at an impressive level of 5,994, reflecting the resilience and sustained growth of the U.S. economy.
Factors Influencing Price Movements
Several factors have influenced the price movement of sp500 index futures, including:
Economic Data and Indicators: Data such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation significantly impact standard & poor’s 500 index futures prices. Positive economic data often leads to an increase in futures prices, while negative data can trigger declines.
Corporate Earnings Reports: The s and p 500 futures contract represents the collective performance of 500 large U.S. companies, so quarterly earnings reports can lead to substantial movements in the futures market. Strong earnings across major sectors drive the futures higher, while weak earnings can lead to declines.
Federal Reserve Policies: Interest rate changes and other monetary policies by the Federal Reserve impact the entire economy, influencing the standard and poor’s 500 futures. Rate hikes typically lead to downward pressure on futures prices as borrowing costs rise, while rate cuts can boost prices.
Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, wars, pandemics, and other global events also contribute to fluctuations in spx index futures. For instance, during the COVID-19 pandemic, uncertainty about the virus’s economic impact caused unprecedented market volatility.
Market Sentiment and Speculation: The futures market is influenced by sentiment-driven buying and selling. Investors’ reactions to news and forecasts can create short-term price fluctuations in standard & poor’s 500 index futures.
Key Milestones in the History of S&P 500 Index Futures
Introduction in 1982: The launch of standard & poor’s 500 futures marked a significant step in futures trading, providing institutional investors and retail traders a way to hedge equity risk.
1987 Black Monday Crash: This market crash highlighted the need for risk management tools, with s&p 500 futures index contracts becoming an essential component for institutional investors managing large portfolios.
Dot-Com Bubble Burst (2000-2002): The decline of technology stocks impacted the entire market, demonstrating the S&P 500 futures’ sensitivity to specific sectors.
2008 Financial Crisis: The crisis showcased the contract’s value as a hedging tool and highlighted its susceptibility to broad economic downturns.
COVID-19 Pandemic (2020): The pandemic caused rapid declines in futures sp prices, but aggressive monetary policy intervention led to a remarkable recovery, underscoring the S&P 500 futures’ role in reflecting the broader market’s health.
Current Trading Level and Market Position
As of now, futures s&p 500 are trading at approximately 5,994. This level represents years of market growth driven by strong corporate performance, advances in technology, and accommodative monetary policies. The current price level also suggests investor optimism and confidence in the U.S. economy’s resilience, despite recent economic challenges.
Why Choose Cannon Trading Company for S&P 500 Futures Trading
Cannon Trading Company stands out as an ideal broker for trading spx index futures due to several key factors:
Decades of Experience: With a legacy of excellence in the futures industry, Cannon Trading Company has earned the trust of traders and investors seeking stability and expertise. Their years of experience in handling futures s&p 500 trading give clients the advantage of informed guidance and support.
Free Trading Platform: Cannon Trading offers a complimentary trading platform that is highly regarded for its ease of use, sophisticated tools, and reliability. This platform enables traders to make informed decisions when trading s and p 500 futures contract and other futures products, regardless of experience level.
Exceptional Customer Service: With a 5 out of 5-star rating on TrustPilot, Cannon Trading is recognized for outstanding customer service. Their team is knowledgeable, responsive, and dedicated to ensuring a seamless trading experience for those trading standard & poor’s 500 futures.
Regulatory Reputation: Cannon Trading maintains a stellar reputation with regulatory bodies, adhering to the highest standards of transparency, compliance, and ethical business practices. This trustworthiness is crucial for traders, particularly when engaging in high-stakes markets like futures sp.
Advanced Trading Tools and Resources: Cannon Trading Company provides advanced tools, data feeds, and educational resources to enhance trading in s&p 500 futures index contracts. These tools are essential for tracking market trends, performing technical analysis, and making timely trading decisions.
For traders looking to navigate the complexities of this market, Cannon Trading Company stands as a reliable partner, offering decades of experience, a free trading platform, exceptional customer service, and a stellar regulatory reputation. With Cannon Trading, traders can confidently access the s and p 500 futures contract, making it an excellent choice for those seeking a robust and reputable brokerage.
Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), commonly known as the Dow, has long served as a benchmark for American stock market performance, capturing the movement of 30 prominent U.S. companies across various sectors. Since the inception of DJIA Index Futures, often referred to as Dow futures or Dow Jones futures, traders have had unique opportunities to speculate on the index’s movements, providing a way to manage risk and potentially earn profits based on the future value of the Dow. As the futures market evolved, DJIA Index Futures established themselves as some of the most versatile tools in a trader’s portfolio.
This article explores why DJIA Index Futures have remained a mainstay in the futures market, the key players involved in the development of the Dow Jones futures contract, and why Cannon Trading Company is an excellent brokerage for trading these futures contracts. With decades of expertise in futures trading and a reputation for exceptional customer service, Cannon Trading Company has earned its place as a premier option for traders looking to invest in DJIA Index Futures and emini Dow futures.
The Versatility of DJIA Index Futures for Futures Traders
DJIA Index Futures have demonstrated remarkable versatility since their introduction to the market. This versatility stems from several key factors:
Hedging Opportunities: One of the primary uses of DJIA Index Futures is to hedge against potential losses in the stock market. Institutional investors and portfolio managers use Dow futures to manage risk. For example, if a fund holds a large portfolio of U.S. stocks, a decline in the Dow could lead to losses. By holding short positions in DJIA Index Futures, fund managers can offset these losses, thereby protecting their assets and minimizing risk.
Leverage Potential: Futures contracts are highly leveraged instruments, allowing traders to control large amounts of underlying assets with a relatively small amount of capital. This characteristic makes DJIA Index Futures particularly attractive to traders who want to maximize their returns. Since futures leverage can amplify both gains and losses, traders are advised to approach it with caution and employ risk management strategies.
Speculative Opportunities: Beyond hedging, DJIA Index Futures offer substantial potential for speculation. By accurately predicting the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, traders can capitalize on price movements. This is particularly valuable for day traders who look to profit from intraday volatility, as well as swing traders who seek to capture longer-term trends.
Liquidity and Market Access: DJIA Index Futures are among the most actively traded futures contracts globally, providing deep liquidity for traders. High liquidity enables traders to enter and exit positions quickly, with minimal slippage, enhancing the efficiency of trading strategies. The popularity of emini Dow futures, a miniaturized version of the standard contract, has further increased market accessibility, allowing smaller retail traders to participate in Dow futures trading.
Flexibility in Trading Hours: The DJIA Index Futures market operates nearly 24 hours a day, offering traders more flexibility than the traditional stock market. This round-the-clock trading access allows traders to react instantly to geopolitical events, economic data releases, or other market-moving factors. Thus, the ability to trade Dow Jones futures outside standard stock market hours makes them ideal for managing global events’ impact on U.S. markets.
The Inception of DJIA Index Futures
The idea of creating futures contracts based on major stock indices emerged in response to increased demand for risk management tools in the 1980s. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) was instrumental in bringing this concept to life. The late Leo Melamed, a visionary in financial futures and a key figure at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), recognized the potential of introducing futures on financial indices. Working alongside industry pioneers, Melamed helped to popularize index futures as a way for investors to protect their portfolios from adverse movements in stock prices.
The initial success of the S&P 500 futures contract set the stage for further innovation in the market. The creation of DJIA Index Futures was a natural progression. In 1997, the CBOT launched the DJIA Index Futures contract, providing investors a means to speculate or hedge on the movements of one of the most well-known indices in the world. This product allowed for a diversified approach to futures trading, as it reflected the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a cornerstone of American financial markets.
While Melamed was a pivotal figure, the development and launch of DJIA Index Futures were collaborative efforts that involved input from regulators, financial institutions, and industry experts. Their goal was to create a futures product that mirrored the Dow Jones index and offered accessible, transparent, and efficient trading for institutions and retail investors alike.
Cannon Trading Company: An Ideal Partner for Trading DJIA Index Futures
With its reputation for excellence and over three decades of experience in futures trading, Cannon Trading Company has become a trusted broker for traders interested in DJIA Index Futures. Known for its high ratings on platforms like TrustPilot, where it maintains a 5-star rating, Cannon Trading Company has earned a solid reputation for customer service and reliability. Here’s why Cannon Trading Company is a standout choice for trading DJIA Index Futures and other futures contracts.
Expertise and Experience: Cannon Trading Company has specialized in futures markets for over 30 years, gaining expertise in navigating the complexities of futures trading. The brokerage’s deep industry knowledge is invaluable to traders, especially those trading Dow futures, who may require guidance on market trends, trading strategies, or risk management techniques.
Regulatory Compliance and Reputation: Cannon Trading Company adheres to strict regulatory standards, holding an excellent reputation with industry regulatory bodies. Compliance with industry regulations ensures that Cannon Trading Company maintains transparency, accountability, and protection of client funds—critical factors when choosing a brokerage for Dow Jones futures trading.
High-Quality Customer Service: Cannon Trading Company’s customer service team receives high praise for responsiveness, knowledge, and reliability. The brokerage’s dedication to client support, combined with its stellar TrustPilot ratings, reflects its commitment to providing a seamless trading experience. Whether traders need technical assistance, market insights, or guidance on emini Dow futures, Cannon’s customer service team is equipped to offer prompt and expert support.
Advanced Trading Platforms: Cannon Trading Company offers advanced trading platforms designed to meet the diverse needs of futures traders. From sophisticated charting tools to real-time data feeds, Cannon provides the resources necessary for traders to make informed decisions when trading DJIA Index Futures. Many of these platforms are customizable, allowing traders to tailor their trading interface to their unique preferences.
Educational Resources: For traders looking to improve their futures trading skills, Cannon Trading Company offers educational resources that cover a wide range of topics, including Dow Jones futures trading, emini Dow trading strategies, and risk management principles. This focus on education helps both novice and experienced traders make well-informed decisions when trading DJIA Index Futures.
Emini Dow Futures: A Popular Choice for Retail Traders
In addition to standard DJIA Index Futures, the introduction of emini Dow futures has expanded accessibility for retail traders. These miniaturized contracts represent a fraction of the size of traditional Dow futures, allowing traders with smaller capital to participate in Dow Jones futures trading. Emini Dow futures retain many of the features of standard contracts, including liquidity, leverage, and round-the-clock trading. Cannon Trading Company provides access to emini Dow futures, enabling retail traders to benefit from the versatility of Dow Jones futures without the large financial commitment of full-sized contracts.
Why Choose DJIA Index Futures?
As a futures trading instrument, DJIA Index Futures offer several advantages that make them popular among traders worldwide:
Diversification and Exposure to U.S. Markets: DJIA Index Futures offer exposure to 30 major U.S. companies, providing a diversified entry point into the U.S. stock market. For international traders, Dow futures present an efficient way to gain exposure to the American economy.
Adaptability to Different Trading Strategies: DJIA Index Futures can be used in various trading strategies, including hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. This adaptability makes them suitable for both institutional and retail traders, regardless of their investment objectives.
Ease of Trading During Market Downturns: Unlike traditional stock trading, which is challenging in declining markets, futures traders can easily take short positions in DJIA Index Futures, enabling them to profit from downward price movements.
Low Transaction Costs: Futures trading, including trading DJIA Index Futures, often has lower transaction costs compared to other types of financial instruments. Lower costs mean traders can focus more on their strategies without worrying as much about high commissions or fees.
Transparency and Standardization: DJIA Index Futures contracts are standardized, meaning that contract specifications, including expiration dates and contract sizes, are set by the exchange. This standardization provides transparency and simplifies the trading process for participants.
Since their inception, DJIA Index Futures have proven to be a valuable asset in the futures trading landscape. These contracts offer traders a unique combination of leverage, liquidity, and flexibility, making them suitable for a wide range of strategies, including hedging, speculation, and arbitrage. The versatility of Dow futures, combined with their close association with the U.S. stock market, has made them a go-to choice for traders seeking exposure to the American economy.
Cannon Trading Company’s dedication to providing a top-tier trading experience, combined with its 5-star TrustPilot rating, extensive experience, and regulatory compliance, makes it a highly recommended broker for trading DJIA Index Futures. With access to advanced trading platforms, educational resources, and high-quality customer service, Cannon Trading Company empowers traders to capitalize on opportunities in DJIA Index Futures and emini Dow futures with confidence.
Whether you’re a seasoned futures trader or just starting your journey with Dow Jones futures, the support and expertise offered by Cannon Trading Company make it a trustworthy partner for achieving your trading goals. DJIA Index Futures, with their unique attributes and market appeal, remain an indispensable tool for futures traders worldwide.
Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.
Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.
This week we will hear earnings from 5 of the Mag 7 stocks. As they will talk about how much they are spending on NVDA chips. The potential for intra-week volatility is there. If yields continue to move higher next week this could generate selling pressure, regardless of mega-cap tech earnings. Pre-election selling late next week is a possibility as well.
SPX fell 1.74 points (–0.03%) to 5,808.12 to end the week down 0.96%;
$DJI lost 259.96 points (–0.61%) to 42,114.40 to end the week down 2.68%;
$COMP rose 103.12 points (0.56%) to 18,518.61 to end the week up 0.16%.
10-year Treasury note yield (TNX) added three basis points to 4.23%.
Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX) climbed sharply to 19.95, nearing recent highs. The 20 level is an area to watch next week, as it traditionally signals more volatile markets.
The rise in yields puts the small caps trade on hold; high yields are not a positive for small caps. Which puts the rotation trade in question. When the FED started cutting rates the sentiment position for portfolio managers went in the direction of small and mid-cap and away from mega caps. Then we had TSLA report a good quarter, and the stock went up 20%.
S&P 500 posted weekly loss for the first time in seven weeks as rising bond yields trigger some profit taking. Yields have been on the rise recently, mostly driven by strong economic data and higher treasury issuance expectations. The last time we came out of a soft landing in 1995 software and financials were leading the market.
We didn’t see the standard seasonal market weakness in September or October to this point, so we have some jitters in the market which are becoming evident such as the VIX above 20 when the S&P is at record highs.
Futures:
Oil prices plunge 6% after Israel’s attack spares Iran’s energy facilities
During the week Crude oil volatility from the previous week has subsided as traders re-evaluate geopolitical events and conflict escalations threatening oil supplies in the Middle East. Over the weekend Israel attacked Iran’s defense systems and other facilities but did not target any oil infrastructure. As of this writing light sweet crude is trading at $67.31 the last lows for the past 3 months were $66.33 and $65.27. Oil is currently trading below both the 50- and 200-day simple moving averages, which is bearish.
“The recent Israel military action is unlikely to be seen by the market as leading to an escalation that impacts oil supply,” Citi analysts wrote in a note on Monday, cutting the bank’s Brent oil forecast by $4 to $70 per barrel over the next three months.
whether Iran will counter the attack in the coming weeks, which should lead to risk premiums rising again.
China: expectations for improved Chinese physical commodities demand have moderated despite an aggressive stimulus package and a reduction in interest rates.
Gold: chasing $3,000. other precious metals started playing catch up and might be an alternative. Silver, platinum, palladium.
Month to date leaders and laggers.
Bonds & Rates:
As of late today, traders see a 95% chance rates will fall 25 basis points at the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC) meeting on November 6–7, based on the CME FedWatch Tool. There’s a 5% chance of no change from current rates.
10-year yield keeps going up, Analysts are saying if we get past 4.5% it may be a problem for stocks.
Paul Tudor Jones said this week “I am clearly not going to own any fixed income and am going to be short the back end of fixed income”.
What’s shorting the back end of fixed income?
“Shorting” the backend of fixed income refers to taking a short position in longer-term bonds or other fixed-income securities. In bond markets, “backend” refers to the longer maturity end of the yield curve—typically bonds with maturities of 10 years or more.
When investors short the backend of fixed income, they are betting that the prices of these longer-term bonds will decrease, which usually happens when interest rates rise. Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship, so if rates increase, the value of existing bonds with lower yields drops.
This strategy might be used when investors expect long-term interest rates to rise, possibly due to inflation concerns or a tightening of monetary policy by central banks.
David Einhorn said “it is by many measures the most expensive stock market we have seen since the founding of Green Light” he also noticed what Warren Buffet has been doing, that he sold a bunch of stock and has been sitting on a mountain of cash, which express a long term view that right now is not the a great time to have a lot of equity exposure, and the opportunity set is expected to be better at some point in the not so distant future”.
Technical Analysis:
Technical perspective, uptrends largely remain intact, the COMP made new all-time highs but did not register a fresh all-time closing high.
SPX technical support remains near its 20-day moving average, now 5,787. That served as support earlier this month and again this week, with the index bouncing off it both times. However, market breadth, which had been rising, contracted a bit this week. About 73% of SPX stocks now trade above their respective 200-day moving averages, down from 80% a week ago. Typically, broader participation suggests healthy investor sentiment and supportive technicals.
The Russell 2000 was the relative underperformer this week, and higher yields are the culprit. Last Wednesday (October 16th) the index finally notched a fresh two-year closing high, but subsequently turned lower as 10-year yields moved up 20 basis points since that day. The good news for the bulls is that the uptrend which began in early August remains intact, but the index could be challenged if bond yields continue to push higher.
Hot sectors: Cyber: Cybersecurity stocks are holding their own. The group is reacting to Morgan Stanley’s upbeat note on the industry. The analyst is bullish on network security stocks on the thesis of strong firewall refresh activity in the second half of 2025 and 2026 based on a four-to-five year replacement cycle, rising network traffic, and record levels of threat activity. Supporting this view is a recent Value-Added Reseller (VAR) and Chief Investment Officer survey by the analyst that showed network security as the top spending priority over the next twelve months.
Economic Reports:
The stronger than expected economic data over the past month will likely translate into a more patient Federal Reserve stance, but investors seem to be ok with tempered rate cut expectations assuming it is due to a strong economy versus re-inflationary trends.
This Friday’s reading on nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation, among other key metrics, could influence the direction of yields.
Monday (10/28): -no reports-
Tuesday (10/29): Consumer Confidence, FHFA Housing Price Index, S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Wednesday (10/30): ADP Employment Change, Advanced International Trade in Goods, Advanced Retail Inventories, Advanced Wholesale Inventories, EIA Crude Oil Inventories, Q3 GDP – Advanced, MBA Mortgage Applications Index, Pending Home Sales
Thursday (10/31): Continuing Claims, EIA Natural Gas Inventories, Employment Cost Index, Initial Claims, PCE Prices, Personal Income, Personal Spending
Friday (11/1): Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Workweek, Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, ISM Manufacturing Index
Earnings:
For the full S&P 500, FactSet’s third-quarter EPS growth consensus is now 3.6%, down from 4.3% at the start of earnings season. As of Friday, 37% of S&P 500 companies have reported third-quarter earnings and 75% topped analyst’s EPS estimates, FactSet said. That’s below the five-year average of 77%. Info tech and communication services enjoy the strongest growth so far.
Monday (10/28): ON Semiconductor (ON), CenterPoint Energy (CNP), Waste Management (WM), Welltower (WELL), Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Ford Motor Co. (F), SBA Communications (SBAC), F5 Inc. (FFIV), Crane Co. (CR)
Wednesday (10/30): Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), AbbVie (ABBV), Caterpillar (CAT), Automatic Data Processing (ADP), Trade Technologies (TT), Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), Amgen (AMGN), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Starbucks (SBUX), KLA Corp. (KLAC), Aflac (AFL)
Thursday (10/31): Matercard Inc. (MA), Merck & Co. (MRK), Line PLC (LIN), Uber Technologies (UBER), Eaton Corp. (ETN), ConocoPhillips (COP), Apple Inc. (AAPL), Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN), Intel corp. (INTC), Atlassian Corp. (TEAM)
Friday (11/1): Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Chevron Corp. (CVX), Enbridge (ENB), Dominion Energy (D), Charter Communications (CHTR), Cardinal Health (CAH)
Memoirs of a trader: Whether trading futures or stocks I always try to trade with the trend therefore look to trade the futures and sectors that had the best week and look for continuation or pull backs. Remember not to chase, buying support usually works out better than buying resistance. TIP- fundamental news can change the trend on a dime.
Trading stocks, commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The information here is of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Oil went below $70 concern of commodity inflation receded somewhat
Markets are a little stretched on the upside SPX up for 6 weeks, investor sentiment is in favor of the bulls. Small caps appear to be playing catch-up Russell closed at a two-year high Wednesday, which may help sustain the recent uptrend. Next week the economic calendar is light so the focus will be on Q3 earnings, which have been strong so far. The path of least resistance still seems to be trending higher. If the benign earnings momentum doesn’t continue throughout next week perhaps this could provide enough of an excuse for investors to take profits, resulting in a modest pullback in stocks.
What happens with the FED what’s the next move? As long as data continues to validate the soft/no-landing thesis it seems that the bias will continue to remain higher.
Deutsche bank posted that 5-year inflation swaps spiked to the highest level since March 2023. Can we see another spike in inflation that can affect the fed’s next move?
At some point the huge debt levels that we’re running suppress growth and increase interest rates and that leads to higher inflation. The market is pricing in 6 rate cuts of 150 basis points and full-on expectations of $275 of earnings. What if any of the Mag 7 miss earnings? Last quarter they all delivered good earnings and were sold off, we saw profit taking. ASML missed and semies went down this past week. Then we saw positive earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), the largest chipmaker in the world. TSM reported a 54% climb in annual profit, better than analysts had expected, driven by accelerating AI demand. I understood it as AI semies demand is there.
Piper Sandler said, “the S&P is overvalued by 8% but so what”.
Stifel said this week “we’re goanna go up another 8 to 10% and then we’re goanna crash 25% sometime next year”.
Bottom line anything is plausible but what’s actionable is now.
Nuclear energy: Mega companies are investing in energy to power their AI infrastructure. AMZN announced it has signed an agreement with Dominion Energy, Virginia’s utility company, to invest more than $500 million to develop small modular reactors. Stocks in nuclear energy space – CEG, VST, D, TLN, LEU, BWXT, OKLO, SMR.
We received solid earnings from Goldman Sachs (GS), Bank of America (BAC), and Citigroup (C). Another newsmaker was UnitedHealth (UNH), which saw shares drop sharply after the company shaved the top end of its guidance amid rising costs. It was the first outlook miss in years for the giant health company.
Treasury yields fell as inflation concerns eased amid sliding crude oil prices on media reports that Israel doesn’t plan to target Iran’s oil sector. Odds of a 25-basis-point Federal Reserve rate cut next month climbed in futures trading Tuesday.
The Russell 2000® Index (RUT) pushed above technical resistance intraday at the July peak near 2,260, though it settled below that. Strength there likely reflects the slight dip in Treasury yields that also lent support to “defensive” and yield-sensitive sectors including real estate, utilities, and consumer staples. The financial sector strength related to strong bank earnings also helps the RUT, which is heavily weighted toward that sector.
Walgreens Boots Alliance jumped more than 15% after the company said it will shut 1,200 stores over the next three years. The company’s earnings beat Wall Street’s estimates. Shares were down about 70% year to date.
Data-wise, October New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing, which provides insight into New York’s manufacturing climate, was much worse than expected at –11.9, with anything under zero indicating contraction. Analysts had expected a reading of 3.6, down from 11.5 a month ago. On a positive note, the report’s six-month outlook rose to its highest in three years, and employment numbers looked strong.
On Thursday we had retail sales. They climbed 0.4%, compared with the 0.2% consensus and 0.1% in August. Excluding autos, one very strong category in retail sales was restaurants and bars, which saw a 1.05% monthly increase.
Retail sales figures indicate consumers are still doing well and spending, which means gross domestic product growth is likely to be in the 3% plus region again.
Ongoing softness in manufacturing and falling commodity prices—reducing inflation expectations, Lower crude prices can help company margins across many industries and keep a lid on inflation.
Before retail sales, the thinking was that the Fed would cut rates 25 basis points in November but consider pausing in December if data remained strong. It’s unclear if a massive jobs report, a warm Consumer Price Index(CPI) and now a very hot retail sales report, would be enough for the Fed to think about a pause at either of its remaining meetings this year. Markets have lowered expectations about the number and size of rate cuts in 2024 due to the strength in the economic data.
It will be a pretty light week of economic data. However, there are two major updates on the state of the housing market, with September’s existing home sales out on Wednesday and September’s new home sales out on Thursday. Housing is a key watch item for investors and the Federal Reserve because it represents a large, unavoidable cost for most Americans, and it’s proven to be a sticky source of inflation. Last week, September housing starts were slightly better than expected, though they were down month over month. We’re unlikely to see a sustained material improvement in the housing market until bond yields come down, which will help pull mortgage rates lower and, in turn, make monthly payments more affordable.
Bonds:
Expect the sideways churning in the bond market to continue until there is a catalyst for the next move. Credit spreads will likely remain tight. The U.S. dollar, having rebounded again from the low end of its two-year trading range, looks like it has some room to move higher as weakness in global growth relative to the United States keeps it firm.
Currently, Bloomberg probabilities suggest a 92% chance of a 25-basis point cut at the November FOMC versus 89% last Friday. Through 2025, the probabilities are suggesting 150 basis points of cuts, which is consistent with the September dot plots from the Fed.
Before the next Federal Reserve meeting November 6–7, key data include September’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on October 31 and October nonfarm payrolls on November 1.
The European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates 25 basis points for the third time this year.
Futures:
#SLV highest since November 2012. #GLD continues its record run.
As of Tuesday, looking at the daily chart for the Gold Futures December 2024 (/GCZ24) contract we can see significant buying pressure as the contract climbed to new all-time highs. The contract has consistently traded off the 20-Day Simple Moving Average which was tested yesterday on below average volume. /GCZ24 is currently trading well above the 50-Day and 200-Day SMA price points.
According to the CFTC Commitment of Traders report released October 8th managed money traders have decreased their long position by -20,271 contracts and increased their short position by +132 contracts. Managed money traders are net long 194,059 contracts. The 14-Day Relative Strength Index at 59.17% indicates more buyers than sellers.
Chinese stocks are under pressure lately, with declines this month eroding gains from the massive rally sparked by China’s stimulus announcement in September.
Investors appear to have lost faith that the government’s stimulus will be the answer to that economy’s problems,” Yardeni Research said in its Wednesday briefing note. “The quick knee-jerk rally in Chinese equities already looks like it’s getting a leg cramp.”
China’s third-quarter GDP rose 4.6% on an annual basis between July and September, inching just above the Reuters consensus view of 4.5%. Retail sales also climbed more than analyst had expected. Chinese stocks popped more than 3.5% Friday on stimulus hopes despite GDP falling sequentially from 4.7% in the second quarter.
European and Asian stocks mostly climbed this week, and Japan saw inflation dip, which could ease concerns about another rate hike there.
Conclusion from this week:
The decline in oil and solid retail sales this past week point to an economy with moderating inflation and resilient growth.
discipline mandates that we consider lightening up our stock exposure in an overbought market. We’re not there yet but still close.
You need a catalyst for the sector and stock that you’re trading to move higher. The markets were missing a catalyst this week for further upside. Some of the economic reports this week suggest that the FED may slow down further cuts. SPX price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of nearly 22 remains historically elevated.
Earnings:
Monday (10/21): Sandy Springs Bancorp Inc. (SASR), SAP SE (SAP), Nucor Corp. (NUE), WR Berkley Corp. (WRB), Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. (ARE), AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC), Zions Bancorp (ZION). Logitech (LOGI).
Tuesday (10/22): GE Aerospace (GE), Danaher Corp. (DHR), Verizon Communications (VZ), Philip Morris International Inc. (PM), RTX Corp. (RTX), Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT), Texas Instruments (TXN), Baker Hughes Co. (BKR), Seagate Technology Holdings (STX), Enphase Energy (ENPH), Norfolk Southern Corp. (NSC), General Motors (GM), Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), 3M (MMM),
Wednesday (10/23): Coca-Cola Co. (KO), Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. (TMO), Nextera Energy Inc. (NEE), AT&T Inc. (T), Boeing Co. (BA), General Dynamics Corp. (GD), Tesla (TSLA), T-Mobile US (TMUS), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), ServiceNow Inc. (NOW), Lam Research Corp. (LRCX)
Thursday (10/24): S&P Global Inc. (SPGI), Union Pacific Corp. (UNP), Honeywell International Inc. (HON), United Parcel Services Inc. (UPS), Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC), Carrier Global Corp. (CARR), Capital One Financial Corp. (COF), Digital Realty Trust Inc. (DLR)
Friday (10/25): Sanofi SA (SNY), HCA Healthcare Inc. (HCA), Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL), AON PLC (AON), Centene Corp. (CNC)
Technical Analysis:
NDX is less than 2% away from it’s all time high 20,675. NDX remains in an uptrend and price has been converging over the past two months in triangle trend. mega-cap tech earnings, which we’ll get the week after next, will likely determine whether we can make new all-time highs or not.
Russell appears to be forming a bull flag formation on the charts. This bullish pattern would be confirmed if the index closes above the upper trendline of the flag, or some technicians look for a close above the top of the flagpole which is at Wednesday’s 2,286 close.
KWEB ETF China, retraced 50% according to Fibonacci numbers.
Memoirs of a trader:
For the past two years I added trading options as opposed to just trading stocks. Trading options is very risky we’re paying for time value (every day that passes on your option without the option moving in the direction of your trade, the option loses time value). And if the stocks you’re trading aren’t moving, trading the options is a losing bet. Another thing that caught my attention, 20 years ago options premiums were much cheaper than they are today, The only options trade that worked for me this week was selling a put, taking the other side of the trade (which can be very risky) but works when the underlying stock doesn’t move or moves in your direction. Conclusion stick to trading stocks when the stock isn’t moving you aren’t losing and add options only once the volatility gets going.
Trading stocks, commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The information here is of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.
About: Cannon Trading is an independent futures brokerage firm established in 1988 in Los Angeles. Our mission is to provide reliable service along with the latest technological advances and choices while keeping our clients informed and educated in the field of futures and commodities trading.
Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
December hogs satisfied their first upside PriceCount objective early this month and have consolidated their trade. At this point, the second count would project a possible run to the 82.15 area IF you can resume the rally and break out above resistance at the April high.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Broker’s Trading System of the Week
With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
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Improve Your Trading Skills
Get access to proprietary indicators and trading methods, consult with an experienced broker at 1-800-454-9572.
Explore trading methods. Register Here* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
#Equities, #Consolidation phase, #Interest rates, #Precious metals, #Gold, #Silver, #US Dollar, #Crude oil prices, #HurricaneHelene, #Middle East tensions, #Chinese stimulus, #Redbook US Retail Sales, #Case Schiller US Metro-Area Home Prices, #Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index, #Service Sector Index, #Consumer Confidence, #New Home Sales, #Micron Technology
Many experienced traders say that the stiffest challenge you’ll face in becoming a futures trader is conquering your own psyche. Why? Because losing is part of trading, and people hate to lose.
In this “Trading Psychology” Course you will learn:
How to examine your patterns and behaviors and recognize when they are holding you back
Maintaining self-confidence as a trader even in the face of inexperience
The mathematical expectation model and how it can decrease your losses
Determining the trading plan that is right for your trading personality
Understanding and using Motivation – Risk – Reward to its full advantage
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Market Overview for the last 2 trading days of the week
By Mark O’Brien
Heads up:
Keep an eye out for the second of this week’s inflation reports: the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index. The report will be released tomorrow, 7:30 A.M., Central Time.
Energy:
This morning, the Energy Information Agency released its weekly crude oil stocks report and the data was a bullish curveball showing a surprise withdrawal in U.S. crude inventories and a bigger-than-expected drop in U.S. gasoline stocks. April RBOB gasoline futures rose over seven cents as of this typing – a ±$3,000 per contract move – up to ±$2.66 per gallon, close to 6-month highs. Spurring the price increase, Ukrainian drone attacks struck several oil refining facilities in Russia for the second day, damaging its refining capacity
Metals:
In concert with the month-long slump in the U.S. dollar and a lingering expectation the Fed will reduce borrowing costs this June, today gold is chipping away at its ±$20 sell-off Monday and poised to around its prior all-time high close (basis April): $2,188.60/oz. As of this typing, April gold is ±$2,177.00.
Indexes:
All three major stock indexes have sustained trading near their all-time highs this week – after the Personal Consumption & Expenditures Price Index on April 1st (the Fed’s preferred U.S. inflation gauge), February’s non-farm payrolls last Friday and Tuesday’s higher-than-expected CPI reading yesterday. As of this typing, prices are mixed ahead of tomorrow’s release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Producer Price Index.
Softs:
So far, the king of all-time highs this week is not Bitcoin (see below). It’s Cocoa. The May cocoa contract broke above $7,000/ton, nearly $2,000/ton higher over the last month – a ±$20,000 per contract move, including today’s 361-point ($3,6010) move today – with “no top in sight,” stated by The Hightower Report.
Crypto:
March Bitcoin futures are set to close at a new all-time high above 73,000 today. With the Bitcoin ETF now trading, remember that the world’s largest futures and options exchange – the CME Group – offers Bitcoin and Micro Bitcoin futures and options with efficient price discovery in transparent futures markets, prices based on the regulated CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate (BRR) and easily traded on your supported trading platform. Make it your choice for managing cryptocurrency risk.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
Today’s CPI report, market action and looking back at my notes from previous CPI trading days encouraged me to share the below:
Maintaining a trading journal is a critical practice for any trader who aims to achieve long-term success in the markets. This meticulous record-keeping serves several vital functions that contribute to a trader’s development and strategy refinement.
Self-Reflection and Accountability: A trading journal fosters a habit of self-reflection. By documenting the details of each trade, including the rationale behind entry and exit points, traders can review their decisions objectively. This process encourages accountability and helps traders to recognize patterns in their trading behavior, both successful and detrimental.
Strategy Optimization: Over time, a trading journal becomes a valuable data repository that traders can analyze to fine-tune their strategies. By identifying what works and what doesn’t, traders can make informed adjustments to their approach, discard ineffective methods, and capitalize on strategies that yield positive outcomes.
Emotional Regulation: Trading can be an emotional endeavor, and a journal can act as a stabilizing force. By committing to a disciplined recording of trades, traders can distance themselves from the emotional highs and lows of market volatility. This emotional detachment is crucial for making rational, data-driven decisions.
Performance Tracking: A trading journal enables traders to track their performance over time. It provides a clear picture of profit and loss, helping traders to assess their financial progress and set realistic goals for future trades.
Learning Tool: For novice traders, a journal is an invaluable learning tool. It allows them to learn from their mistakes and successes, accelerating their journey towards becoming proficient traders.
In essence, a trading journal is more than just a record of transactions; it is a trader’s roadmap to continuous improvement and strategic mastery. It is an indispensable tool for anyone serious about excelling in the dynamic world of trading.
* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.
RISK DISCLOSURE: Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in futures trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition.
Economic Reports
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