Category: futures trading education

All Roads Lead to Jackson Hole…

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

Most of the August 22 week economic data will probably take a backseat to anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech about “The Economic Outlook” on Friday at 10:00 ET at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

In the past, the Fed Chair has used this opportunity to signal the direction of monetary policy or policy framework updates or offering insight into the Fed’s balance sheet impending adjustments. What is expected are comments related to Policymakers continuing to move to a restrictive stance on interest rates (additional tightening) until they are sure that inflation is on a trajectory of the 2 % inflation target rate.

Chairman Powell will probably also note that Fed’s balance sheet reductions will pick up the pace in September providing less stimulus. Chairman Powell will probably be able to speak to some improvements in Demand as well as some relief in the supply chain issues.

Even though we have a number of economic numbers the Fed’s Open market committee will be digesting this week for policy change announcements for the next meeting in September, I will expect Chairman Powell will include the caveat that the FOMC is data dependent and there’s plenty of data between now and then. As we look forward to this open Microphone meeting on the 26th, we have plenty of Data for the market to digest as well between now and then,  Tuesday PMI Composite and New Home Sales, Wednesday Durable Goods and pending home sales, Thursday GDP (second estimate of Q2 GDP) and Jobless claims Plan your trade and trade your plan!!

Please contact our professional staff for more details.

8 Steps to Improve your Trading

What You Need to Know Before Trading 8.10.22

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

Financials:

Keep an eye out for the Labor Department’s release of this month’s Consumer Price Index tomorrow and the Producer Price Index on Thursday. Both will be looked at as guidance for the Federal Reserve as it approaches its September 20-21 meeting, on the heels of back-to-back 75-basis point rate hikes at their last two respective meetings. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting a ±8.7% year-over-year CPI headline reading, down slightly from the 9.1% jump in June.

Roughly during that same period, several commodity prices have fallen dramatically. Sept. corn futures have dropped ±24% over the past three months; July wheat prices have fallen by ±27%, and soybean prices are down by ±14%.

Crude oil – trading as low a s $88/barrel last week – is now below price levels prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices paid at the pump nationally have fallen as well, approaching an average of $4 per gallon in the U.S. compared to a peak of over $5 per gallon in June.

Softs:

Big news regarding lumber futures! Yesterday, the CME Group introduced revamped lumber futures and options. These are not newly offered alternative/mini futures contracts and options, but a complete remodel of the existing ones. The contracts and options kept the same symbols, but the leverage was reduced to 1/4 the prior specifications: 27,500 board feet, down from 110,000. Now, a $1.00 move is equal to $27.50, down from $110.00.

The contracts’ minimum tic size increased from $0.10 ($11) to $0.50 ($13.75).

Trading hours: Mon. – Fri.: 9:00 A.M. – 3:05 P.M., Central Time.

Contract settlement remains physically delivered.

Please contact our professional staff for more details.

Plan your trade and trade your plan!