Bull Markets hanging in there amid 200-day SMA, December Bean Oil, Levels, Reports (!); Your 4 Important Can’t-Miss Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on November 19th, 2025

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200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA)

The Bull Market at Large

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3964.07 4017.03 4050.37 4103.33 4136.67

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

48.35 49.51 50.27 51.43 52.19

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

58.67 59.68 60.26 61.27 61.85

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

116 1/32 116 12/32 116 26/32 117 5/32 117 19/32

Bulls are surviving…. For now.

  bull

Financial news networks and pundits are repeating “Bubble” due to the recent sell off in equities, “AI Bubble” Google boss Pichai “AI investment boom has elements of irrationality., “No Firm immune!”  Bob Michele, JPMorgan’s Chief Investment Officer, discusses lessons learned from the Dot.com bubble. Warning shots to be certain and perhaps the market is ripe for a change in tenor.

Rather than a blow the doors off rally or a sideways market (you can make a case the S&P 500 index has been trading in a range since mid-Sep.)

Where is the demarcation line that tells us we are in a Bear market? We are still in a Bull market so I thought I would do a deep dive into the technical indicator that has provided traders with meaningful support for a continuation of a Bull market. Or, once crossed, the resistance and the tenor of a Bear market.

The 200-day Simple Moving Average (200-day SMA) is one of the most widely watched technical indicators in global financial markets, especially for the S&P 500. Its importance comes from a combination of institutional usage, psychological reinforcement, and historical track record. Here’s why it matters so much:

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Quick Historical Examples

  • March 2020: S&P crashed below 200-day → confirmed bear market → trillions in systematic selling.
  • October 2022: Reclaimed the 200-day SMA → signaled new bull market → +45% rally since.
  • 2025 so far: Multiple tests of the rising 200-day were bought aggressively, reinforcing its role as dynamic support.

Bottom Line

The 200-day SMA is not magic, but because so many large players watch it and trade it, it has become one of the most important price levels on the chart. For the S&P 500 right now (November 2025), staying above ≈6,150–6,200 keeps the long-term bull market intact. A sustained break below would be a major warning signal that the character of the market has changed.

Where is the 200 Day today?

As of November 18, 2025 (using the most recent market close on November 17, 2025, as markets are closed over the weekend), the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the S&P 500 index is 6,151.63. This value reflects a slight increase of +3.16 (+0.05%) from the prior day, driven by the index’s ongoing bull market momentum.

For context:

  • The S&P 500 closed at 6,672.41 on November 17, trading well above its 200-day SMA (a bullish signal, as the index is approximately 8.5% higher).
  • The 200-day SMA is a widely used long-term trend indicator, calculated as the average closing price over the past 200 trading days.

Mini SP daily chart with the 200 simple moving average below for review!

Plan your trade, trade your plan!

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December Bean Oil

December bean oil is breaking out above the fall highs and is attempting to shift the chart formation back to the topside. The chart has confirmed the first upside PriceCount objective. If the chart can break out and sustain trade above the downtrend and 100 dma, the second count would project a move up to the 53.60 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Nov. 19th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Second Interest Rate Cut, December Cotton, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Critical Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 30th, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2

Gold (GC)

— Dec (GCZ5)

3861.93 3910.07 3978.13 4026.27 4094.33

Silver (SI)

— Dec (SIZ5)

46.01 46.69 47.60 48.28 49.19

Crude Oil (CL)

— Dec (CLZ5)

59.02 59.67 60.34 60.99 61.66

 Dec. Bonds (ZB)

— Dec (ZBZ5)

117 7/32 117 20/32 118 13/32 118 26/32 119 19/32

interest

Interest Rates

It wasn’t even apparent during Chair Jerome Powell’s post-announcement news conference what triggered the price jolts in several of the futures markets this afternoon – including a ±50-point decline in the E-mini S&P 500 and a ±200-point decline in the E-mini Nasdaq in the span of eight minutes, or the ±$40 sell-off in gold in the span of two minutes.

Regardless of the cause, they served as the latest real-world examples of why it’s so important for traders of all types to assess the risks of their trades – before you enter into them – and have a plan to manage that risk. Day traders and position traders alike should be aware of important planned events – just like FOMC announcements and press conferences – and anticipate the potential risks to those events (these days it’s wise to include occasions when the U.S. president speaks, considering his ongoing involvement and influence in global trade relations).

These events certainly create opportunities for traders – outsize moves can also result in outsize favorable outcomes – but the most important aspect to trading – is always to manage risk.

General – Interest Rates:

Day 29 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record.

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point today – its second consecutive rate cut, lowering the Fed’s benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75 to 4 percent, its lowest level in three years.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on Microsoft, Google-parent Alphabet and Facebook-owner Meta today– all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow:

Apple and Amazon

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December Cotton

December cotton violated its contract low this month but for now was unable to sustain the break towards the low percentage drawn downside PriceCount objective near 57 cents not shown here for presentation purposes. The new chart has activated upside counts on the correction higher and is quickly approaching the first objective to the 66.27 area. To achieve any additional upside targets, we will first have to break out above the long-term downtrend

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 30th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

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All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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January Beans, Why Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures (WITH CAN’T MISS VIDEO!!!!), Levels, Reports; Your 4 Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 28th, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3900.53 3953.07 4038.43 4090.97 4176.33
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 44.59 45.67 47.13 48.21 49.67
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 59.92 60.68 61.42 62.18 62.92
 Dec. Bonds (ZB) 117 15/32 118 6/32 118 17/32 119 8/32 119 19/32

beans

Why do Many Traders Lose Money Trading Futures? See presentation below!

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January Soybeans

January beans gapped higher and the chart is accelerating to its second upside PriceCount objective to the $10.92 area. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF you can sustain further strength, the third count would project a possible run to the $11.30 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 28th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Algorithmic Precision Trading, December Soymeal, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 24th, 2025

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Enhance Your Edge with Algorithmic Precision

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4035.77 4083.83 4127.67 4175.73 4219.57
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 46.88 47.71 48.47 49.30 50.05
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 58.60 60.12 61.16 62.68 63.72
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46437 46669 46831 47063 47225

Enhance Your Edge with Algorithmic Precision

algorithmic

Take the guesswork out of your trading decisions…

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From VWAP deviations and volatility bands to momentum oscillators and trend confirmation signals, every feature is designed to help you:

✅ Identify possible high-probability setups

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Whether you’re scalping intraday moves or executing swing strategies, our system gives you the clarity and support some professional traders rely on.

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Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

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December Soymeal

December meal satisfied its first upside PriceCount objective off of the October low. It would be normal for the chart to react from this level in the form of a near term consolidation or corrective trade. From here, if we can extend the rally with sustained strength, the second count would project a possible run to the $298 area.

And that’s a December Soymeal projection for you!

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 24th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Futures FYI: Metals, Stock Index Futures, Energies, Dec-March Corn Spread, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 23rd, 2025

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What You Need to Know Before Trading Futures Tomorrow!

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

futures

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 3951.53 4035.67 4105.33 4189.47 4259.43
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 46.09 47.19 47.92 49.02 49.75
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 56.37 57.88 58.86 60.37 61.35
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46315 46553 46877 47115 47439

General:

Day 22 of the U.S Government shut-down, now the second-longest on record. Today it overtook the 21-day shutdown of 1995-96. Without a fix, many federal employees will not be getting paid this Friday, the first full paycheck they’ll miss as a result of the shutdown.

Stock Index Futures:

We’re amidst earning season for the third quarter. Moving into full swing, all eyes were on IBM, AT&T and in particular Tesla – all releasing their latest earnings results after the closing bell.

Tomorrow: Intel

Metals:

It’s another installment of the broken record precious metals report – with a twist.

On Monday, Dec. gold futures rose to a new all-time intraday high of $4,398.00/ounce and closed up nearly $150/ounce above Friday’s close. As this blog is being composed, the contract is trading ±$300/ounce lower ±$4,090/ounce – a ±$30,000 per contract move. This includes yesterday’s free-fall of over $300/ounce marking its largest single-day sell-off in 13 years.

Despite the dip, gold is still up over 50% year-to-date. HSBC predicts that the precious metal will hit $5,000 next year.

Energies:

After remaining on their lows last week – with a new multi-month intraday low of $55.96/barrel in the December contract on Monday, futures rose after President Trump again said India would reduce its purchases of Russian oil, while today’s EIA’s report showed a one-million-barrel drop in U.S. crude oil inventories following three weekly builds. Today, Dec. crude oil rose over $2.00/barrel to an intraday high of $59.67/barrel.

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Dec – March Corn Spread

The Dec-March corn spread has resumed its rally into a new high. At this point, the chart appears to be taking aim at its third upside PriceCount objective to the -12 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 23rd, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Overnight Edge, December Mini Dow, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 21st, 2025

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Where is the Edge?

edge

At-a-Glance Levels

Instrument S2 S1 Pivot R1 R2
Gold (GC) — Dec (GCZ5) 4173.40 4285.40 4341.70 4453.70 4510.00
Silver (SI) — Dec (SIZ5) 49.49 50.65 51.24 52.40 52.99
Crude Oil (CL) — Nov (CLX5) 55.32 56.16 56.79 57.63 58.26
 Dow Jones (YM) — Dec 2025 46087 46503 46733 47149 47379

Over the past few months, and especially in recent weeks, we’ve seen unusually large overnight moves. Some moves appear random, others reverse quickly, and some are driven by headlines such as tariff news. These dynamics have increased gap risk, reduced overnight liquidity, and produced frequent open-time dislocations.

Common question

Where is the edge?

Short answer

  • Trade the first 30 minutes and focus on short-term gap-fill or rejection setups.
  • Use same-day options when you expect a large directional move to limit tail risk and avoid being stopped out only to see the market move in your favor.
  • Trade spreads when relative strength diverges across instruments (for example, gold vs silver or mini-Dow vs ES).

Extended answer

I want to focus on the practical elements of trading like pre-market context, move behavior, market news correlation, liquidity, options limits, and whether to use mean reversion or momentum. I’ll also want to highlight key parts like risk management, stop placement, and position sizing. Planning should be direct with a simple checklist and no more than six sections. I should also consider using a relevant citation about tariff-related movements, but just one, and make sure it’s only placed where necessary. No framing or extra explanations.

Futures day-trading edge

You find edge by matching a repeatable hypothesis to the current market regime, then executing it with strict risk and execution rules.

Regime diagnosis (what the market is doing now)

  • Volatility regime: large overnight gaps and erratic premarket prints mean the market is in a news-driven, headline-sensitive volatility regime.
  • Catalyst profile: moves are often tied to macro headlines and tariff noise; those headlines create directional gaps that either persist into the session or sharply reverse at the open.
  • Liquidity profile: overnight liquidity is thin and fragmented, increasing slippage and fake outs at the open.

Reliable, tradeable edges you can use

  • Pre-open directional bias with size filter. Trade opens when overnight gap exceeds a threshold (e.g., 0.5% or X ticks) and pre-market order flow confirms (sustained prints, not one-off sweep).
  • Use reduced size and wider stops for gaps caused by headline noise.
  • Fade headline gap into first 30 minutes when structure is weakIf gap lacks follow-through volume and price fails to make a clean microstructure breakout, favor mean reversion to the first-tail or VWAP.
  • Trend-follow breakouts in high conviction regimeWhen overnight move is accompanied by aligned macro flow (rates, FX, commodities) and volume ramps into the open, follow momentum with a continuation plan.
  • Volatility arbitrage playsUse options or calendar spreads where available to sell realized volatility after spikes and buy protection around known headline windows.
  • Session-timing edgeTrade smaller and tighter in the first 15–30 minutes after the open; increase size after the market establishes structure (first clean high/low and confirmation).
  • Microstructure edge: limit vs market tacticsUse passive limit entries near structural levels and aggressive exits into liquidity. Avoid market entries into thin pre-open auction prints.

Concrete execution rules (checklist)

  • Pre-market checklist: identify gap size, top 3 headlines, correlated markets (bonds, FX, oil), and pre-open volume trend.
  • Entry rules: require either structural confirmation (higher high / lower low) or a mean-reversion setup with defined edge-to-risk ratio ≥ 2:1.
  • Sizing: reduce notional by 25–50% on headline-driven nights; increase only after two clean consecutive edges are realized.
  • Stops and targets: place stop where edge invalidates (clearly definable price level); scale out at predefined targets; never trade without a stop.
  • Slippage buffer: add tick buffer to stops and profit targets during thin liquidity opens.

How to test and keep the edge

  • Backtest regime-specific rules: label historical sessions by overnight gap size and headline events, test mean-reversion vs momentum rules separately.
  • Forward-test with small capital: run a two-week rolling simulator and log slippage, win rate, and expectancy.
  • Adaptive rules: codify a volatility threshold that switches you between momentum and fade strategies automatically.

Brief trade plan template

  • Hypothesis: (e.g., “Overnight tariff headline caused a 0.7% gap that lacks confirmatory volume; first 20 minutes will mean-revert to VWAP.”)
  • Entry: limit at VWAP + X ticks or on 1-minute reversal candle.
  • Stop: invalidation beyond the overnight high/low + slippage buffer.
  • Target: partial at VWAP, final at first structure level.
  • Size: 50% normal when gap driver = headline; full size only when macro alignment confirmed.

Be systematic: diagnose regime, pick the strategy that historically wins in that regime, enforce execution and risk rules, and iterate from measured data.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss.  

The recommendations contained in this blog are of opinion only and do not guarantee any profits.  

Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

December Mini DOW

The December mini DJIA chart satisfied its second upside PriceCount objective earlier this month and corrected lower. At this point, IF the chart can resume its rally with new sustained highs, the third count would project a possible run to the 52041 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 21st, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day! 

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Price Extremes: Gold, Silver, Crude Oil; December KC Wheat, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Must-Knows for Trading Futures on October 16th, 2025

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Price Extremes

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

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General:

Day 15 of the U.S Government shutdown.

Stock Index Futures:

Dec. stock index futures returned to solid gains late today as markets remained alert over US-China trade tensions and amid hopes for interest rate cuts and strong quarterly earnings results from Wall Street banks. Traders have cemented bets on a rate cut later this month, and odds of a rate cut in December have jumped in recent days to around 96% according to the CME Group FedWatch tool:

Prices Metals:

It’s the broken record metals report. Dec. gold futures rose to new all-time highs today – its 47th new record of the year – trading up to $4,235.80/ounce intraday.

Alongside gold, Dec. silver rocketed up nearly $2.00/oz. today to set its own all-time record high, trading intraday up to $52.55/ounce. This after yesterday when the contract took out a 45-year-old record closing price of $48.70/ounce, during the time when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.

Prices Energies:

November crude oil futures have remained on their lows this week – with a new multi-month intraday low of $58.20/barrel on continued concerns about oversupply and the possible impact on demand of rekindled U.S.-China trade tensions – its fourth day in a row closing below $60/barrel.

Livestock:

Dec. live cattle and Jan. feeder cattle both closed little changed today and within pennies of their own all-time record high closing prices at the close of trading yesterday. Tight supplies and strong feeder markets pushed cash cattle higher and the futures markets followed suit. The supply of cattle has lingered at a near 75-year low, with the closure of the US-Mexico border to Mexican cattle imports further constraining an already tight supply.

December KC Wheat

December KC wheat satisfied its third downside PriceCount objective and reacted with a key reversal higher. It would be normal to get a mean reversion from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective phase, at least. If the chart can sustain further weakness, we are left with the low percentage fourth count to aim for in the $4.37 area. That we trade down to this level is a realistic target although we have traded that low just 5 years ago.
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 16th, 2025

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Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Day Trading Week! Fed Speakers, December Hogs, Swing Trading, Levels, Reports; Your 6 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures the Week of October 13th, 2025

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1262

  • The Week Ahead – Fed Speakers Galore…

  • Futures 101 – Podcast: Insight into Day Trading Futures

  • Hot Market of the Week – Dec. Hogs

  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Mini SP Swing Trading System 

  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

day trading

Traders, much like the Federal Reserve Board, are dependent on data that, during a government shutdown is barely existent. 17 Fed speakers!  The markets are sure to move then, but wait, that’s not all, Fed Chair Powell on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy.

As for earnings reports? Q3 begins next week!  Major Banks report first. (see Below)

The on again off again nature of Tariff news has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others.  The gold market exploded out of its range I have been writing about for months.  Watch Crude oil to see if it stays in its $60.00-$65.00 range and the Dollar index too! The longer the range trade the harder and faster the breakout typically is.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, China, India, Canada and Russia (looks like the EU is following Trump on this one) The Crude Oil market certainly believes so.. Also, remember that Mexico’s extension will end October 29.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

 Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. JPM , JNJ, WFG, GS, BLK, C
  • Wed.  BAC, MS, ABT,
  • Thu. SCHW, BK, USB
  • Fri.   AXP,

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

  • Mon.  Paulson 11:55 am,
  • Tues.  Bowman 7:45, Fed Chair Powell 11:20am, Waller 2:25, Collins 2:30
  • Wed.   Bostic 11:10, Miran 11:30, Waller Noon,
  • Thu.     Barkin 7:00am, Barr, Miran, Waller all 8:00am, Bowman 9:00am , Barkin 10:45am, Miran 3:15pm, Kashkari, 5:00pm
  • Fri.      Musalem 11:15

Economic Data week: 

  • Mon.  with the government shutdown, data will be suspended.
Join us for an exclusive webinar on “Futures Spread Trading,” where you’ll discover the powerful strategies professional traders use to capitalize on market opportunities while managing risk. Whether you’re a seasoned investor or just starting out, this session will break down the essentials of spread trading, uncover actionable techniques, and show you how to navigate the futures market with confidence. Don’t miss this chance to learn from industry experts and take your trading skills to the next level—reserve your spot today!
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Day Trading Futures

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Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

Dec. Hogs

The rally in December hogs stalled out last month and now the chart has activated downside PriceCounts on the correction lower. The first count projects a possible slide to the 81.11 area.”

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Brokers Trading System of the Week

ALGOsigmaX E-mini S&P ES

Markets Traded:   Mini SP500 ES/EP

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $50,000

Developer Fee per contract: $205 Monthly Subscription

Get Started

Learn More

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Disclaimer The risk of trading can be substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

IMPORTANT RISK DISCLOSURE

Futures trading is complex and carries the risk of substantial losses. It is not suitable for all investors. The ability to withstand losses and to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can adversely affect investor returns.

The returns for trading systems listed throughout this website are hypothetical in that they represent returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real-time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on backadjusted data (backadjusted).

Please read carefully the CFTC required disclaimer regarding hypothetical results below.

HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.

ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT.

IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.

Please read full disclaimer HERE.

Would you like to get weekly updates on real-time, results of systems mentioned above?

Daily Levels for Oct 13th, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Crypto Trading, December Dollar Index, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 9th, 2025

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Around the Clock Crypto Futures Trading Ahead

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

crypto

General: Crypto Trading Round-The-Clock

Big news. CME Group, the world’s largest derivatives marketplace, plans to offer customers round-the-clock trading for its cryptocurrency products next year.

The timetable anticipates 24/7 trading of futures and options starting in early 2026. Currently this will cover the CME Group’s main offerings in Bitcoin and Ethereum, but starting Oct. 13, they will be joined by Solana and XRP derivatives.

Trading in cryptocurrency derivatives has been growing steadily since CME first offered Bitcoin futures in 2017. Notional open interest, which represents the outstanding value of contracts, reached a record $39 billion in mid-September.

All-hours access lets investors respond to price swings in real time, which could add additional legitimacy and liquidity to these digital assets.

Stock Index Futures:

The Dec. E-mini S&P 500 and E-mini Nasdaq futures contracts traded to new all-time record highs intraday today. Volume has tended to be lighter on this the sixth day of the U.S. government shutdown.

Traders have been negligibly on edge at these highs with some uncertainty about the U.S. shutdown, the state of the jobs market and the delay of scheduled releases of U.S. government economic reports.

Looking elsewhere for clues on the U.S. jobs front, last week a report from global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas indicated U.S. employers announced fewer layoffs in September but hiring plans so far this year were the lowest since 2009. It came a day after a weaker-than-expected ADP National Employment Report.

Metals:

Dec. gold futures rose to new all-time highs for the sixth of seven trading sessions today, barreling through yesterday’s first move through $4,000 per ounce to trade intraday up to $4,081 per ounce, a $76.6 per ounce follow-through move.

Gold and silver futures have surged roughly 55% and 65% year to date, respectively, as expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have boosted the appeal of metals, which tend to perform better when interest rates are lower.

Energies:

Despite today’s report that U.S. crude oil inventories rose more than expected last week, crude oil futures oil futures staged a modest recovery today after last week’s decline to a 16-week low as the U.S. government shutdown fed worries about the global economy, while traders expected more oil supply to come on the market with the planned output boost announced by OPEC+ over the weekend.

December Dollar Index

The December dollar index broke out into a new high and completed its first upside PriceCount objective. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. If the chart can sustain further strength, the second count projects a possible run to the 99.60 area, consistent with a challenge of the August reversal high.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 9th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

 U.S. government data may be impacted by the shutdown. ‘Tentative’ events are subject to delay, revision, or cancellation

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Trading Resources, December Silver, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Important Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on October 8th, 2025

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Trading Resources

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Some useful resources for trading on Cannon Trading Website!

Heat Map:

Daily Research

Economic Calendar

Trading Courses

FOMC Minutes will be out tomorrow as FOMC is not a govt. agency!

Contact our trading desk today with any questions about the markets!

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December Silver

The rally in December silver is approaching its third upside PriceCount objective in the 49.373 area. This target is consistent with a test of the all-time high from 2011. It would be normal to get a near term reaction from this level in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade, at least. If the chart can sustain further strength, we are left with the low percentage fourth count objective in the 71.55 area (not shown here for presentation purposes).

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Oct. 8th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Central Time ( Chicago)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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