4 Timely Lessons from the Week’s Sharpest Index Futures Decline, May Meal, Non Farm Payroll

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Index Futures

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Extreme Volatility

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Non Farm Payroll Tomorrow

non farm payroll

By Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

As of this typing stock index futures and other futures contracts (but particularly index futures) have experienced single-day downward moves not seen in years:

Index Futures

index futures

→ E-mini Dow Jones: down ±1,600 points / 3.7%

→ E-mini S&P 500: down ±260 points / 4.5%

→ E-mini Nasdaq: down ±1,025 points / 5.1%

→ E-mini Russell 2000: down ±128 points / 6.2%

With tomorrow ushering in the Labor Dept.’s release of its monthly Non-farm payrolls report and the furtherance of what looks to be the beginning of a global trade war, expect no drop-off in market volatility.

Index Futures

Traders not only need to be extra cautious in making trading decisions, it’s also important to be aware of important aspects of the markets they’re trading.

Key among these are the daily price limits of the markets you’re trading. A price limit is the maximum price range permitted for a futures contract in each trading session. When markets hit the price limit, different actions occur depending on the product being traded.

Index Futures

Some markets may temporarily halt until price limits can be expanded or trading may be stopped for the day based on regulatory rules. Different futures contracts will have different price limit rules; i.e. Equity Index futures have different rules than Agricultural futures.

Price limits are re-calculated daily and remain in effect for all trading days (except in certain physically-deliverable markets, where price limits are lifted prior to expiration so that futures prices are not prevented from converging on prices for the underlying commodity).

Index Futures

Equity Indexes futures have a three level expansion: 7%, 13% and 20% to the downside, and a 7% limit up and down in overnight trading.

Follow the links below to the CME Group web site to find more information on price limits generally and specific price limits for the markets you’re trading:

Find daily price limits for CME Group Agricultural, Cryptocurrency, Energy, Equity Index, Interest Rates, and Metals products: click here.

Index Futures

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May Meal

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May meal has resumed its break into fresh contract lows. The chart is approaching its second downisde PriceCount objective in the $287 area where it would be normal to get a near term reaction in the form of a consolidation or corrective trade. IF we can sustain further weakness, there is a third count near $249 although we’d first have to contend with formidable weekly chart support in the $280 area.

That’s May Meal

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for April 4th, 2025

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Economic Reports

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All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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Futures Class 3 Milk Futures

7 Shocking Pitfalls of Ignoring Class 3 Milk Futures in Your Trading Strategy

In the dynamic and multifaceted world of commodities trading, class 3 milk futures stand out as a unique and critical financial instrument. Designed primarily for dairy producers, processors, and traders, these futures contracts are integral to hedging against price volatility in the dairy market. As the global dairy industry evolves with increasing complexity, understanding the nuances of class 3 milk futures becomes imperative for traders, commodity brokers, and institutional investors. This paper explores the foundational aspects of class 3 milk futures, distinguishes them from other dairy-related futures, provides projections for the next three trimesters of 2025, and examines why Cannon Trading Company and its state-of-the-art platform, CannonX, are leading choices for futures trading.

What are Class 3 Milk Futures?

Class 3 milk futures are standardized financial contracts traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) that represent 200,000 pounds of milk, priced per hundredweight (cwt). These contracts are primarily utilized to hedge and speculate on the price movements of milk used in the production of cheese, which is why they are directly influenced by the supply and demand for cheese in the United States.

Milk is categorized into different classes based on its end-use. Class 3 milk pertains specifically to milk used in the manufacturing of hard cheeses such as cheddar. The price of class 3 milk is influenced by several factors including cheese prices, butterfat content, and protein values. Traders engaging in class 3 milk futures are essentially betting on the fluctuations of these key components within the dairy market.

The Relevance of “Class 3” in Futures Contracts

The term “class 3” in futures contracts denotes the categorization established by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) under the Federal Milk Marketing Orders (FMMO). Milk is classified into four main categories:

  • Class 1: Milk used for fluid consumption.
  • Class 2: Milk used for soft products like yogurt and cottage cheese.
  • Class 3: Milk used for hard cheeses.
  • Class 4: Milk used for butter and dry milk products.

Class 3 milk is particularly volatile due to the fluctuating demand and supply conditions in the cheese market. The futures contracts based on this class enable participants to manage risk associated with such volatility effectively.

Differentiation from Other Dairy Futures Contracts

Class 3 milk futures differ from other dairy futures contracts such as class 4 milk futures, nonfat dry milk futures, and butter futures in several key ways:

  • Underlying Commodity: Class 3 futures are based on milk used specifically for cheese production, whereas class 4 milk futures pertain to butter and nonfat dry milk.
  • Volatility: Due to the perishable nature of cheese and its demand dynamics, class 3 milk futures are generally more volatile, attracting speculators looking for short-term gains as well as hedgers needing robust risk management.
  • Pricing Mechanism: Class 3 milk prices are calculated using the cheese, dry whey, and butterfat prices published by the USDA. This differs from the pricing mechanisms used in class 4 and other dairy futures.
  • Market Participants: Class 3 milk futures attract a unique set of market players, including cheese manufacturers, large-scale dairy farms, institutional commodity brokers, and even speculative traders focusing on agriculture.

Historical Trends in Class 3 Milk Futures

Historically, class 3 milk futures have demonstrated notable price swings tied closely to macroeconomic indicators and agricultural policies. Over the past decade, prices have fluctuated between lows of around $12/cwt to highs exceeding $24/cwt. This variability often correlates with shifts in feed costs, weather patterns, and international dairy demand.

The COVID-19 pandemic further exposed the volatility inherent in dairy markets. Disruptions in supply chains, changes in consumer behavior, and export inconsistencies led to sharp price adjustments. These historical lessons underscore the critical role class 3 milk futures play in providing price certainty and risk mitigation in commodities trading.

Global Influence on Class 3 Milk Futures

The global market exerts considerable influence on class 3 milk futures. Key international developments—such as EU dairy subsidies, New Zealand milk production, and Chinese import policies—can ripple through U.S. markets.

  • Export Demand: Nations such as Mexico, China, and South Korea are among the largest importers of U.S. dairy. Rising global cheese consumption can increase demand for class 3 milk, pushing futures prices upward.
  • Geopolitical Events: Trade agreements and sanctions impact dairy exports and influence price dynamics. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) continues to affect milk futures through tariff structures and import quotas.
  • Climate Change: Extreme weather events across the globe affect feed availability and animal health, influencing production costs and, consequently, class 3 milk futures prices.

Risk Management with Class 3 Milk Futures

Managing risk is essential in futures trading, and class 3 milk futures offer an efficient tool for this purpose. Dairy producers use these contracts to lock in prices, securing future revenue and planning capital expenditures more accurately. Processors and distributors also hedge to stabilize their input costs.

Strategies commonly employed include:

  • Hedging through Direct Contracts: Locking in sales or purchase prices for future milk deliveries.
  • Options on Futures: These provide flexibility and are used to protect against downside risk while preserving upside potential.
  • Spread Trading: Traders take advantage of price differences between months or related commodities to mitigate risk.

These strategies allow participants to insulate themselves from adverse price movements, turning volatility into opportunity.

Forecasting Class 3 Milk Futures for 2025

First Trimester (January to April 2025)

Seasonal trends suggest an increase in class 3 milk futures prices during the early months of the year due to winter production slowdowns and elevated holiday cheese demand. Weather conditions affecting feed quality may also contribute to reduced milk output, tightening supply.

Second Trimester (May to August 2025)

Spring flush traditionally brings increased milk production, which could result in lower class 3 prices. However, if export demand for cheese rises, it may mitigate some downward pressure. Futures traders should monitor USDA reports and global cheese market dynamics during this period.

Third Trimester (September to December 2025)

The lead-up to the holiday season often sees increased cheese demand, leading to higher class 3 milk prices. In 2025, with anticipated growth in foodservice and retail sectors, this trend may be more pronounced, presenting a bullish outlook for class 3 milk futures contracts.

Cannon Trading Company and CannonX: Leaders in Futures Trading

Cannon Trading Company has cemented its reputation as a premier commodity broker through decades of exemplary service, advanced technology, and a client-first approach. Particularly for those involved in trading futures like class 3 milk futures, CannonX—the firm’s proprietary platform—offers unmatched capabilities.

  • Experienced Brokers: One of the most distinguishing features of Cannon Trading is the accessibility of seasoned brokers with decades of experience. Clients speak directly to knowledgeable professionals—there is no automated answering service acting as a barrier. This personalized touch ensures informed decision-making in real time.
  • Top-Rated Service: With numerous 5 out of 5-star TrustPilot rankings, Cannon Trading Company has proven its commitment to customer satisfaction. Clients consistently praise its transparency, educational resources, and trading support.
  • Best Trading Platform Futures: CannonX ranks among the best trading platform futures options on the market. With its intuitive interface, real-time analytics, and broad asset class integration, it supports all kinds of futures contracts, including class 3 milk futures.
  • Free Top-Performing Platforms: Traders gain access to a wide selection of FREE, top-performing trading platforms tailored to various strategies and preferences. Whether you’re interested in mobile trading, algorithmic strategies, or manual order entry, Cannon has a solution.
  • Industry Trust and Compliance: Cannon Trading Company maintains an exemplary reputation with industry regulators, underscoring its integrity and commitment to ethical commodity trading practices.
  • Commodities Trading Education: Cannon provides a rich library of resources—from webinars to tutorials—that equip clients with the tools needed for successful commodities trading. These materials cover everything from class 3 milk futures to broader futures trading methodologies.
  • Scalable Solutions for All Traders: Whether you’re a retail trader new to trading futures or a seasoned commodity broker managing institutional accounts, Cannon Trading Company offers flexible solutions that scale with your needs.

As the commodities trading landscape continues to evolve, class 3 milk futures remain a vital tool for hedging and speculation in the dairy sector. Understanding their unique attributes, market dynamics, and forecasted trends for 2025 is crucial for effective trading. Cannon Trading Company, with its robust platform CannonX, emerges as a superior choice for both novice and seasoned traders. From expert brokers just a call away to unparalleled customer satisfaction and regulatory trust, Cannon sets the benchmark in futures trading.

In an increasingly complex market, success in commodities trading depends not only on knowledge and timing but also on the right platform and support system. For anyone looking to succeed in class 3 milk futures, Cannon Trading Company offers not just a trading platform, but a strategic partnership.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll, & Powell; 3 Poised to Drive Market Volatility in Triple Threat!

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USDA

Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1236

  • The Week Ahead – Non-Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell
  • Futures 102 – Intro to Crude Oil Futures
  • Hot Market of the Week – Bloomberg Commodity (CRB) Index
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Combo Breakout Swing System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

Non Farm Payroll Friday!

non farm payroll

June gold is front month!

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

USDA, Non Farm Payroll, Prospective Plantings and Fed Chair Powell?

USDA

One of the most impactful Agricultural reports of the year will be released Monday at 11:00 am CDT. The Prospective Plantings report and Grain Stocks released by the USDA will offer a needed insight into prospective acreage plantings for grains and oilseeds.

I have included commentary from The Progressive Farmers’ DTN top analyst for your review: DTN Pre-Report analysis

usda

More volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting, as they have been, to the Global Tariff talk.

Non Farm Payroll

Highlights next week will include the aforementioned Grain report. Non farm Payroll (NFP) Friday followed by Fed Chair J. Powell and other Fed Speakers. This may be the final Q4 2024 Earnings guidance as we will see a mere 67 releases the entire week.

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

 Earnings Next Week:

  • Mon. Quiet
  • Tue. Quiet
  • Wed. Quiet
  • Thu. Conagra, Constellation Brands
  • Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES:

  • Mon.    Bostic 12:45 CDT, Barr 2:10 CDT,
  • Tues.    Kugler 7:40 CDT, Williams 8:05 CDT ,
  • Wed.    Kugler 3:30 CDT
  • Thu.     Jefferson 11:30 CDT, Cook 1:30 CDT
  • Fri.       Fed Chair J. Powell 10:25 CDT, Barr 11:00 CDT, Waller 11:45 CDT

Economic Data week:

  • Mon. Chicago PMI, Dallas Fed, USDA Prospecting Plantings and Grain Stocks
  • Tue. Redbook, ISM Mfg. Final, JOLTS, Dallas Fed.,
  • Wed. EIA Crude Stocks, ADP, Factory Orders
  • Thur. Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Svcs Final, EIA Nat Gas
  • Fri. Non-Farm Payroll

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Futures 102: Introduction to Crude Oil futures

Course overview

crude oil

Today’s energy crude oil market is truly global. From West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to Brent and DME Oman, the crude oil market fuels many of the world’s leading economies and impact nearly every nation. Energy crude oil futures and options provide the tools the industry needs to manage risk.

Explore the key concepts and structure of today’s energy markets, including the factors that affect supply and demand and move prices. Learn how to use these instruments to hedge exposure and unlock opportunities.

Start FREE Course Now

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Hot Market of the Week

Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Brokers Trading System of the Week

Combo Breakout 1 Trading System

Market Sector: Diversified / Multiple

Markets Traded:  C , KW , S , W , CL , HO , NG , RB , KC , SB , FGBL , TU , FV , BP , EC , JY , SF , DX , FESX , GC , EMD , NQ , RTY , ES , YM ,

System Type: Swing Trading

Risk per Trade: varies

Trading Rules: Partially Disclosed

Suggested Capital: $50,000

Developer Fee per contract: $200.00 Monthly Subscription

System Description: 

Portfolio Combo Breakout I consists of 5-6 daytrade and swing strategies using different symbols, timeframes, and session templates. All strategies are developed by simple, structured, and proven breakout models based on strong fundamental logics.

All strategies are fully robustness tested as well as stress tested with no position sizing, more contracts can be traded. The 5-6 strategies have very low correlations (Less than 0.1) in order to achieve smoother portfolio equity curve.

Combo Breakout I is specially designed to trade with Combo Breakout II and Combo Breakout III for their low correlations in the portfolio level.

Get Started

Learn More

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USDA, Non Farm Payroll

Disclaimer: The risk of trading can be substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Futures Trading Disclaimer:

Transactions in securities futures, commodity and index futures and options on futures carry a high degree of risk. The amount of initial margin is small relative to the value of the futures contract, meaning that transactions are heavily “leveraged”.

A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited or will have to deposit: this may work against you as well as for you.

You may sustain a total loss of initial margin funds and any additional funds deposited with the clearing firm to maintain your position. If the market moves against your position or margin levels are increased, you may be called upon to pay substantial additional funds on short notice to maintain your position.

If you fail to comply with a request for additional funds within the time prescribed, your position may be liquidated at a loss and you will be liable for any resulting deficit. Please read full disclaimer HERE.

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Trading Levels for Next Week

Daily Levels for March 31st, 2025

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Trading Reports for Next Week

First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:

www.mrci.com 

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors.

You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources.

You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Triple Witching Friday; Powerful Market Shift! 3 Crucial Facts About Triple Witching Friday

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Triple Witching!

triple witching

Triple Witching tomorrow!

Stock Index March contracts (i.e., the E-mini and Micro S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000.) expire Friday, March 21st (8:30 A.M., Central Time). At that point, trading these contracts halts. Stock index futures are CASH SETTLED contracts. If you hold any March futures contracts through 8:30 A.M., Central Time on Friday, they will be offset with the cash settlement price, as set by the exchange.

Triple Witching!

FRONT MONTH IS NOW JUNE, the symbol is M25, example for MICRO mini SP is MESM25

Things to know about Triple Witching

A “triple witching,” is NOT without risk for holders of futures and futures option contracts.

A triple witching is the simultaneous expiration of stock options, index futures, and index futures options that occurs four times a year.

The first triple witching of 2025 will take place this Friday. Futures Stock indices and futures Options cease to allow trading at the opening bell of the Cash Stock market and settle, NOT to the final traded price at that time but, at a fixed settlement price based on where all the stocks making up the index have opened, this becomes the cash settled price for those contracts not offset prior to the trading halt.

Triple Witching!

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Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index is a basket of 24 commodities spread across energy, grains, softs, livestock, industrial and precious metals. The weekly chart has developed a 2-year sideways range of trade. IF the chart can break out to the topside, there are upside PriceCount objectives in place which suggest that this index would have significant potential to run.

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Chart above is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.

Free Trial Available

The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normalfor the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for March 21st, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

Join our Private Facebook group

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Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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FOMC: Shocking Decision Just Sent Gold Soaring: 3 Big Reasons Why

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Market Highlights

by Mark O’Brien, Senior Broker

The Day After FOMC

fomc

FOMC Meeting Update  

The FOMC left interest rates unchanged today.  In language newly added to its policy statement, “Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.”  Surveys of consumers and businesses, corporate earnings, and financial markets, albeit “soft data,” have suggested that the economic ground may be shifting beneath our feet.  Last Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary survey of consumer sentiment for March sank for the third straight month, showing sharply lower expectations for the future – regardless of respondents’ party affiliations.  Warnings have percolated from airlines and retailers, i.e. Dollar General and Walmart, about underwhelming consumer demand.  Outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas announced layoffs reached their highest levels since the summer of 2020, when the pandemic was in full force — and the highest level for the month of February since 2009. That’s all for the FOMC for now.

Metals:

Gold prices edged higher to hover near all-time highs on the heels of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s post announcement press conference.

Daily Levels for March 20th, 2025

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Want to feature our updated trading levels on your website? Simply paste a small code, and they’ll update automatically every day!

Click here for quick and easy instructions.

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time (New York)

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Find us on Trustpilot

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Call Now

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Subscribe to our YouTube Channel

Listen to our podcast: Subscribe on AppleSpotify, Amazon

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Oil Futures Contracts

The world of futures trading is vast, intricate, and, at times, obscured by layers of jargon and complexity. Among the most actively traded financial instruments in this domain are oil futures contracts, a crucial commodity derivative that influences global economies. Understanding these contracts—how they work, the potential risks, and their historical impacts—can make a critical difference for any futures trader seeking success.

What Are Oil Futures Contracts?

An oil futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell a specific amount of crude oil at a predetermined price at a future date. These contracts are standardized and traded on exchanges such as the CME Group’s New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). They allow producers and consumers to hedge against price fluctuations while providing opportunities for commodity brokerage firms and traders to speculate on oil price movements.

Oil futures come in various forms, including e-mini futures and micros futures, which allow for different contract sizes to cater to traders with varying risk appetites and capital.

10 Obscure Facts About Oil Futures Contracts That Traders Should Know

  1. The Market Has Negative Prices—And It Happened in 2020
    • On April 20, 2020, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for May delivery fell to -$37.63 per barrel. Due to an extreme storage shortage, holders of contracts were willing to pay others to take the contracts off their hands.
  2. Contango vs. Backwardation Can Make or Break a Trade
    • In futures trading, a market in contango means that future prices are higher than spot prices, often due to storage costs. In backwardation, future prices are lower, typically due to high demand. Understanding these states helps traders plan their strategies effectively.
  3. ‘Crack Spread’ Trading Exploits Oil Product Refining Margins
    • Futures traders use the “crack spread” strategy to hedge or profit from the difference between crude oil and refined products like gasoline or diesel. This spread reflects refinery margins and demand shifts.
  4. Oil Futures Contracts Expire Differently Than Stock Options
    • Unlike stock options, which expire monthly, oil futures have contract rollovers that can create price volatility around expiry dates. If a trader doesn’t roll over before expiry, they may have to accept physical delivery.
  5. Oil Price Moves Don’t Always Correlate With Global Events Immediately
    • While geopolitical events (like wars and OPEC decisions) impact oil, price reactions can be delayed due to hedging and algorithmic trading, making predictive trading challenging.
  6. Hedging by Airlines and Trucking Companies Influences Prices
    • Large-scale fuel consumers like airlines hedge fuel costs using oil futures contracts, impacting market dynamics. For example, Southwest Airlines famously saved billions by hedging its jet fuel costs during the 2000s.
  7. The ‘Tanker Trade’ Can Affect Oil Futures Prices
    • Oil traders sometimes buy physical crude oil and store it in tankers, waiting for higher prices in a contango market. This floating storage impacts oil futures market liquidity.
  8. Algorithmic Trading Dominates Oil Futures
    • High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms execute over 50% of futures trading volume, reacting to news, order flow, and price trends faster than human traders.
  9. Oil Futures Are Prone to Flash Crashes
    • Sudden price collapses (flash crashes) can happen due to electronic trading malfunctions or massive stop-loss triggers. One example occurred in 2018 when oil prices dropped 7% in a matter of minutes.
  10. ‘The Widowmaker’—A Dangerous Spread Trade
    • The natural gas futures spread trade between winter and summer contracts is nicknamed “The Widowmaker” because of its extreme volatility. Though unrelated to oil, it often moves in correlation, impacting oil-based hedging strategies.

Understanding the Risk Potential of Oil Futures Contracts

Like all futures trading, oil futures contracts come with significant risks:

  • Leverage Risk: Futures contracts use leverage, meaning traders can control large positions with relatively small amounts of capital. However, leverage magnifies both gains and losses.
  • Volatility Risk: Oil prices can swing wildly due to geopolitical events, natural disasters, or economic reports.
  • Margin Calls: If a trader’s position moves against them, brokers may issue margin calls, requiring additional capital to maintain the position.
  • Liquidity Risk: While oil futures are generally liquid, extreme events can lead to price gaps and limited exit opportunities.
  • Regulatory Risk: Governments and regulatory bodies can impose new rules affecting oil trading. For example, position limits or increased margin requirements can change market conditions suddenly.

Case Studies: Real-Life Oil Futures Trading Lessons

Case Study 1: The 2020 Oil Price Crash

As mentioned earlier, WTI crude oil prices went negative in April 2020. Some traders who failed to roll over their contracts in time were forced to take delivery of oil, with no storage options available. The lesson: Always have an exit strategy before contract expiry.

Case Study 2: The 2008 Oil Price Surge and Crash

In 2008, crude oil surged to an all-time high of $147 per barrel, only to plummet to $33 by year-end. Many traders who went long near the peak suffered devastating losses. The takeaway? Markets can remain irrational longer than traders can stay solvent.

Case Study 3: How a Small Trader Profited from the Crack Spread

A trader noticed gasoline refining margins widening and strategically went long on gasoline futures while shorting crude oil. This classic crack spread trade yielded substantial profits as gasoline prices rose.

Why Cannon Trading Company is a Great Choice for Trading Oil Futures

For both new and experienced traders, having the right futures broker is essential. Cannon Trading Company stands out for several reasons:

  • Wide Selection of Trading Platforms: Offering cutting-edge platforms like CQG, Rithmic, and Sierra Chart, Cannon Trading ensures traders have the best tools.
  • TrustPilot 5-Star Ratings: With consistently high ratings, Cannon Trading has built a reputation for reliability and client satisfaction.
  • Decades of Experience: Established in 1988, the firm has deep industry expertise in commodity brokerage and futures trading.
  • Regulatory Excellence: Fully compliant with NFA and CFTC regulations, Cannon Trading provides a secure and transparent trading environment.
  • Support for All Trader Levels: Whether trading e-mini futures, micros futures, or full-sized contracts, Cannon Trading accommodates all experience levels.

Trading oil futures contracts is a high-risk, high-reward endeavor requiring deep market knowledge. From forgotten trading techniques like the crack spread to modern risks such as algorithmic-driven volatility, futures traders must stay informed. Cannon Trading Company, with its best-in-class platforms, compliance, and experience, is an excellent choice for anyone looking to engage in future trading with confidence.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Micros Futures

Micros futures have revolutionized futures trading by providing traders with lower capital requirements and greater flexibility. Whether you are an experienced futures trader or a novice looking to enter the world of futures trading, understanding the intricacies of e mini micro futures can help you make informed decisions. In this comprehensive guide, we will explore 10 obscure facts about micros futures contracts, highlight past case studies, and examine the risks involved in trading futures. Additionally, we will discuss why Cannon Trading Company is a top-tier futures broker for trading futures contracts.

  1. Micros Futures and Their Etymology
    The term “micros futures” originates from the broader category of e mini futures. E mini micro futures represent an even smaller contract size compared to traditional e mini futures, designed to make futures trading more accessible to traders with smaller account sizes. The creation of micro-sized contracts was a direct response to demand from retail traders who wanted exposure to commodity brokerage markets without requiring the large capital commitments of standard futures contracts.
  1. How Micros Futures Have Democratized Futures Trading
    Historically, futures trading was dominated by institutional investors due to the high margin requirements. However, the introduction of micros futures has allowed retail traders to participate in commodity brokerage with smaller position sizes. For example, while a standard S&P 500 futures contract controlled $250 per index point, an e mini futures contract controls $50 per point, and e mini micro futures control just $5 per point. This allows traders to hedge, speculate, and manage risk with much smaller capital exposure.
  1. Unusual Strategies for Trading Micros Futures
    Most traders use common strategies such as trend following and scalping, but there are obscure yet effective strategies that some futures traders employ:

    • Calendar Spread Trading: A technique where traders go long on one micros futures contract while simultaneously shorting a different contract month to profit from price differences over time.
    • Gamma Scalping in Micros Futures: A complex options-related strategy applied to micros futures, though rarely discussed in trading forums.
    • Short Squeeze Trapping: A strategy where traders buy micros futures ahead of a suspected short squeeze, capitalizing on rapid price movements.
  1. The Forgotten Role of Open Interest in Micros Futures
    Many traders focus solely on volume but ignore open interest, which can be a hidden indicator of price movements. Open interest measures the total number of outstanding contracts that have not been settled. If open interest rises alongside price increases in e mini micro futures, it indicates strong bullish sentiment. Conversely, if prices rise but open interest declines, it might signal a potential reversal.
  1. Micros Futures Have Lower Tick Value, But Can Still Be Risky
    While the lower tick value of micros futures makes them appealing, risk is still a significant factor. Consider the micro Nasdaq-100 futures (MNQ), which move in increments of 0.25 index points, with each tick worth $0.50. However, with enough contracts, a trader can still experience substantial gains or losses. One real-life case study involves a retail trader who attempted to hedge a portfolio using micro S&P 500 futures (MES) but miscalculated leverage, leading to an unexpected $10,000 loss in a matter of hours.
  1. Liquidity Concerns with Micros Futures
    Although micros futures have gained traction, they still have lower liquidity compared to standard e mini futures. This can lead to wider bid-ask spreads, which can impact trade execution. Some traders overlook slippage risks in micros futures, only to find that in fast-moving markets, execution prices differ significantly from their intended entry points.
  1. The Impact of Algorithmic Trading on Micros Futures
    High-frequency trading (HFT) algorithms actively participate in the micros futures market, often creating rapid price fluctuations. Some traders use the “iceberg order” technique to hide their true order size and avoid being exploited by algorithms that hunt for liquidity. This trading technique is especially useful when dealing with micros futures contracts, where market depth can vary.
  1. Unique Risk Factors Associated with Micros Futures
    While micros futures offer smaller contract sizes, traders must still account for the following risk factors:

    • Margin Call Risks: Due to the leverage involved in trading futures, even micros futures can result in margin calls if not managed correctly.
    • Gaps in Overnight Trading: Unlike equities, micros futures trade nearly 24 hours a day, which means significant price gaps can occur outside of regular trading hours.
    • Psychological Biases: Some traders falsely assume that because micros futures are smaller, they carry minimal risk. However, an overleveraged micros futures position can be just as devastating as a poorly managed standard futures trade.
  1. Case Study: Micros Futures and the 2020 Market Crash
    During the market crash of 2020, many retail traders turned to micros futures to hedge their portfolios. A notable example involves a futures trader who strategically shorted micro crude oil futures (MCL) ahead of the historic drop into negative territory. This trader correctly anticipated the lack of storage capacity for oil and managed to turn a $5,000 account into $50,000 in just weeks.
  1. Why Cannon Trading Company Is an Ideal Futures Broker
  2. Choosing the right futures broker is critical for success in trading futures. Cannon Trading Company stands out as a premier choice for several reasons:

    • Wide Selection of Trading Platforms: Cannon Trading offers access to top-tier trading platforms like NinjaTrader, TradeStation, and MultiCharts, ensuring that futures traders can execute trades seamlessly.
    • 5-Star Ratings on TrustPilot: With stellar customer reviews, Cannon Trading has built a reputation for excellent customer service and reliability.
    • Decades of Experience: With over three decades of experience in the futures trading industry, Cannon Trading provides expert insights to traders of all levels.
    • Regulatory Excellence: The firm maintains exemplary compliance with the National Futures Association (NFA) and other regulatory bodies, ensuring a safe trading environment.
    • Dedicated Customer Support: Unlike many online brokers, Cannon Trading offers personalized customer service, making it an excellent choice for both novice and experienced futures traders.

Micros futures have transformed the landscape of futures trading, making it more accessible while still offering significant opportunities and risks. Understanding the nuances of e mini micro futures, applying advanced trading techniques, and working with a reputable futures broker like Cannon Trading Company can significantly enhance a trader’s experience and profitability. As more traders turn to micros futures to gain exposure to the markets, staying informed about these lesser-known aspects of futures trading will be key to long-term success.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Corn Futures Contract

The corn futures contract remains one of the most actively traded agricultural commodities in the futures markets. As global demand for corn continues to rise due to its essential role in food production, animal feed, and ethanol production, futures traders seeking profitable opportunities often turn to corn futures as a key component of their portfolio.

10 Essential Tips for Trading Corn Futures in 2025

  1. Understand Supply and Demand Dynamics
    Corn prices are highly sensitive to global supply and demand. Factors such as droughts, floods, and geopolitical trade policies can drastically affect supply, while increased biofuel production and livestock feed demand can drive prices higher.
  2. Monitor USDA Reports
    The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publishes reports such as the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), Crop Progress Reports, and Grain Stocks Reports. These provide valuable insights into corn production, yield forecasts, and potential price movements.
  3. Follow Seasonal Trends
    Historically, corn futures contracts tend to follow seasonal price patterns. Prices often drop during harvest (September-November) when supply increases and rise in the planting months (April-May) when weather concerns create uncertainty.
  4. Choose a Reliable Futures Broker
    Working with a reputable futures trading broker is essential for executing trades efficiently. Firms like Cannon Trading Company offer a wide selection of futures trading platforms and have a solid track record with 5-star ratings on TrustPilot, making them a great choice for traders of all levels.
  5. Hedge Against Price Volatility
    Agribusinesses and institutional investors often use corn futures contracts to hedge against price fluctuations. Understanding how to use these contracts for risk management can provide a strategic edge.
  6. Utilize Technical and Fundamental Analysis
    Successful futures traders rely on both technical indicators (such as moving averages and Fibonacci retracements) and fundamental analysis (such as crop reports and geopolitical news) to make informed decisions.
  7. Watch for Inflation and Interest Rate Trends
    Economic factors such as inflation and interest rates influence the overall commodity markets. Rising interest rates can strengthen the U.S. dollar, making corn exports more expensive and potentially lowering demand.
  8. Stay Updated on Trade Agreements
    Global trade agreements and tariffs, particularly between the U.S., China, and the European Union, significantly impact corn prices. Keeping track of new trade deals is crucial for trading futures successfully.
  9. Consider Algorithmic and Automated Trading
    Advanced trading technology has made futures contract trading more accessible through algorithmic and automated trading strategies. Platforms offered by Cannon Trading Company enable traders to execute trades with precision and speed.
  10. Diversify with Other Agricultural Futures
    While trading futures in corn can be profitable, diversifying with soybean, wheat, and other crop futures can reduce risk and enhance overall portfolio stability.

Expected Trends for Corn Futures in 2025

Climate Change and Weather Volatility

Extreme weather conditions are expected to continue affecting global corn production. Unpredictable droughts and flooding could lead to significant price swings in corn futures contracts.

Biofuel and Ethanol Demand

The global push for renewable energy sources will likely keep ethanol demand high, increasing the need for corn as a primary biofuel ingredient.

Rising Input Costs

Fertilizer and transportation costs have been climbing, impacting production expenses and potentially pushing corn prices higher in 2025.

Geopolitical Tensions and Trade Policies

The U.S.-China trade relationship remains a key factor. Tariffs or trade barriers could significantly impact corn exports and futures prices.

Key Reports to Monitor for Corn Futures Trading

  • USDA WASDE Report – Offers supply and demand projections.
  • Grain Stocks Report – Provides insights into corn inventory levels.
  • Crop Progress Report – Tracks planting and harvesting progress.
  • CFTC Commitment of Traders Report – Shows market sentiment among traders.
  • EIA Ethanol Production Report – Measures ethanol demand, affecting corn consumption.

Historical Performance of Corn Futures and Agricultural Commodities

Historically, corn futures contracts have shown cyclical patterns influenced by weather conditions, government policies, and technological advancements in agriculture. The 2012 drought, for example, caused record-high prices, while increased yields in the following years led to price stabilization. Other crop futures contracts, such as wheat and soybeans, have followed similar trends, often correlating with corn prices due to their shared agricultural and economic factors.

Why Choose Cannon Trading Company for Futures Trading?

For traders looking to engage in futures contract trading, selecting a reputable futures trading broker is essential. Cannon Trading Company stands out for several reasons:

  • Top-Performing Trading Platforms: Offering a range of advanced platforms for both beginner and experienced futures traders.
  • Decades of Experience: With a long history in the futures trading industry, Cannon Trading provides expert guidance.
  • Outstanding Customer Support: Rated 5 out of 5 stars on TrustPilot, the firm is recognized for its commitment to client satisfaction.
  • Regulatory Compliance: Fully compliant with NFA regulations, ensuring transparency and security for trading futures.

The corn futures contract presents numerous opportunities for profit in 2025. By staying informed on market trends, monitoring key reports, and partnering with a reputable futures trading broker like Cannon Trading Company, traders can navigate the complexities of futures contract trading with confidence.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 – Int’l (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with Cannon Trading Company today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

Follow us on all socials: @cannontrading

Trading Styles in Futures: Concepts for Futures Traders

Futures trading is a dynamic and complex field that offers numerous strategies to accommodate different trading styles and objectives. Futures traders must understand the various approaches and tools available to them to make informed decisions and optimize their trading performance. This article provides a detailed exploration of several key trading strategies and concepts in futures trading, including swing trading, momentum trading, calendar spread futures trading, butterfly spread, high-frequency futures trading, crack spread, statistical arbitrage, and the impact of low margin rates on futures trading.

Trading Styles in Futures

1. Swing Trading in Futures

Definition and Overview

Swing trading is a popular trading strategy in the futures market that involves holding positions for several days or even weeks to capitalize on short- to medium-term price movements. Unlike day trading, where positions are closed within the same trading day, swing traders aim to capture the “swings” in the market—short-term price fluctuations caused by market volatility.

How Swing Trading Works

Swing traders typically use technical analysis to identify potential entry and exit points. They look for patterns such as head and shoulders, flags, and triangles to predict price movements. Swing traders may also use indicators like moving averages, RSI (Relative Strength Index), and MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) to confirm their predictions.

The key to successful swing trading lies in timing. Traders must be able to accurately predict when a trend will start and end, which requires a deep understanding of market dynamics and the ability to interpret chart patterns.

Advantages of Swing Trading
  • Flexibility: Swing trading allows traders to maintain a regular job or pursue other interests because it does not require constant monitoring of the markets.
  • Lower Transaction Costs: Since positions are held for longer periods compared to day trading, swing traders incur fewer transaction costs.
  • Potential for High Returns: By capturing significant price movements, swing traders can achieve substantial returns over time.
Disadvantages of Swing Trading
  • Overnight Risk: Holding positions overnight exposes swing traders to risks from unexpected market events, such as geopolitical developments or economic announcements, that can lead to significant price gaps.
  • Requires Patience: Swing trading requires patience, as traders must wait for the right market conditions to enter and exit trades.
Best Practices for Swing Trading
  • Use Stop-Loss Orders: To manage risk, swing traders should always use stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.
  • Stay Informed: Swing traders must stay informed about market news and events that could impact their positions.
  • Focus on Liquid Markets: Trading in highly liquid futures markets ensures that positions can be easily entered and exited without significant price slippage.

2. Momentum Trading in Futures

Definition and Overview

Momentum trading is a strategy based on the idea that assets that have been performing well will continue to do so in the near future, while assets that have been underperforming will continue to decline. Momentum traders aim to capitalize on the continuation of existing trends by entering trades in the direction of the momentum.

How Momentum Trading Works

Momentum traders use technical indicators like the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the Momentum Indicator to identify trends and assess their strength. Once a trend is identified, momentum traders enter positions in the direction of the trend, holding the position until signs of a reversal or a slowdown in momentum appear.

Advantages of Momentum Trading
  • Potential for Quick Profits: Momentum trading can generate quick profits if the trader accurately identifies and capitalizes on strong trends.
  • Clear Entry and Exit Signals: Momentum indicators provide clear signals for entering and exiting trades, making the strategy easier to implement for traders who are skilled in technical analysis.
Disadvantages of Momentum Trading
  • High Risk of Reversals: Momentum trading carries the risk of sudden trend reversals, which can result in significant losses if the trader is not quick to react.
  • Requires Constant Monitoring: Momentum traders need to closely monitor the market to act swiftly when trends begin to reverse.
Best Practices for Momentum Trading
  • Trade in Active Markets: Momentum trading works best in highly active markets where trends are strong and persistent.
  • Use Multiple Indicators: Relying on a combination of momentum indicators can help traders confirm trends and reduce the risk of false signals.
  • Set Tight Stop-Losses: To manage risk, momentum traders should set tight stop-losses to protect against sudden reversals.

3. Calendar Spread Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

Calendar spread futures trading, also known as a time spread or horizontal spread, involves simultaneously buying and selling futures contracts on the same underlying asset but with different expiration dates. This strategy is used to profit from changes in the price difference (spread) between the two contracts.

How Calendar Spread Trading Works

In a calendar spread, the trader typically buys a futures contract with a longer expiration date and sells a futures contract with a shorter expiration date, or vice versa. The idea is to profit from the change in the spread between the two contracts as market conditions evolve. The spread can widen or narrow based on factors such as supply and demand, seasonality, or changes in market sentiment.

Advantages of Calendar Spread Trading
  • Reduced Risk: Calendar spreads generally have lower risk compared to outright futures positions because the trader is exposed to the price difference between the two contracts rather than the full price movement of the underlying asset.
  • Lower Margin Requirements: Because the risk is lower, margin requirements for calendar spreads are typically lower than for outright futures positions.
Disadvantages of Calendar Spread Trading
  • Complexity: Calendar spreads can be more complex to manage than simple long or short futures positions, as traders need to understand the factors that influence the spread.
  • Limited Profit Potential: The profit potential in calendar spread trading is generally lower than in outright futures trading because the price movement of the spread is typically smaller than the movement of the underlying asset.
Best Practices for Calendar Spread Trading
  • Monitor Market Conditions: Traders need to stay informed about market conditions that can affect the spread, such as changes in supply and demand or seasonal trends.
  • Use Technical Analysis: Technical analysis can help traders identify opportunities in calendar spreads by analyzing historical spread patterns.

4. Butterfly Spread in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

A butterfly spread is a neutral options strategy that combines a bull spread and a bear spread. It involves buying and selling options with three different strike prices but with the same expiration date. In futures trading, a similar strategy can be applied using futures contracts.

How Butterfly Spread Trading Works

A typical butterfly spread in futures trading might involve buying one futures contract at a lower price, selling two contracts at a middle price, and buying one contract at a higher price. The goal is to profit from the price of the underlying asset remaining close to the middle strike price at expiration. The strategy profits if the underlying asset’s price is close to the middle strike price and losses are minimized if the price moves significantly in either direction.

Advantages of Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Limited Risk: The maximum loss is limited to the initial cost of setting up the spread.
  • Potential for High Reward: If the market price ends up near the middle strike price, the potential reward can be high relative to the risk.
Disadvantages of Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Limited Profit Potential: While the risk is limited, so is the profit potential, which is capped by the distance between the middle and outer strike prices.
  • Requires Precise Market Prediction: To profit from a butterfly spread, the trader must accurately predict that the market will remain within a narrow price range.
Best Practices for Butterfly Spread Trading
  • Use in Low Volatility Markets: Butterfly spreads work best in markets where volatility is low and prices are expected to remain stable.
  • Monitor Implied Volatility: Changes in implied volatility can affect the pricing of the options or futures contracts used in the butterfly spread, so traders should keep an eye on volatility levels.

5. High-Frequency Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

High-frequency trading (HFT) is a type of algorithmic trading characterized by the use of powerful computers to execute a large number of orders at extremely high speeds. In futures trading, HFT involves placing and executing orders within fractions of a second to take advantage of small price discrepancies in the market.

How High-Frequency Trading Works

HFT firms use sophisticated algorithms to analyze market data and execute trades at lightning speeds. These algorithms are designed to identify and exploit inefficiencies in the market, such as temporary price discrepancies between different exchanges or financial instruments. The profits per trade are usually very small, but the high volume of trades can result in significant overall profits.

Advantages of High-Frequency Trading
  • High Profit Potential: HFT can generate significant profits due to the sheer volume of trades executed.
  • Market Efficiency: HFT contributes to market efficiency by quickly correcting price discrepancies.
Disadvantages of High-Frequency Trading
  • Requires Advanced Technology: HFT requires significant investment in technology and infrastructure, including powerful computers and high-speed internet connections.
  • High Risk: The high speed and volume of trades mean that small errors in the algorithm can lead to substantial losses.
Best Practices for High-Frequency Trading
  • Develop Robust Algorithms: The success of HFT depends on the quality of the algorithms used, so it’s essential to invest in the development and testing of robust trading algorithms.
  • Monitor Latency: In HFT, even milliseconds can make a difference, so traders need to minimize latency in their trading systems.

6. Crack Spread in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

The crack spread is a trading strategy used in the energy markets, particularly in oil and gas futures. It involves taking positions in the futures of crude oil and refined products like gasoline and heating oil to profit from the price difference (spread) between crude oil and its refined products.

How Crack Spread Trading Works

A typical crack spread trade involves buying or selling crude oil futures while simultaneously selling or buying futures contracts for refined products. The trader profits from changes in the spread between the price of crude oil and the prices of its refined products. For example, if the price of gasoline increases relative to crude oil, the spread widens, and a trader holding a long crack spread position would profit.

Advantages of Crack Spread Trading
  • Hedge Against Refining Margins: For companies involved in refining, the crack spread can serve as a hedge against fluctuations in refining margins.
  • Speculative Opportunities: Traders can speculate on the future direction of the spread based on factors such as seasonal demand, refinery outages, and changes in crude oil supply.
Disadvantages of Crack Spread Trading
  • Complexity: Understanding the relationship between crude oil and its refined products requires specialized knowledge of the energy markets.
  • Volatility: The crack spread can be highly volatile, leading to significant risks if not managed properly.
Best Practices for Crack Spread Trading
  • Stay Informed About the Energy Markets: Traders need to be aware of factors that can affect the supply and demand for crude oil and refined products, such as geopolitical events, weather patterns, and refinery capacity.
  • Use Risk Management Tools: Given the volatility of the crack spread, it’s essential to use risk management tools like stop-loss orders to protect against adverse price movements.

7. Statistical Arbitrage in Futures Trading

Definition and Overview

Statistical arbitrage (stat arb) is a trading strategy that uses mathematical models to identify and exploit price inefficiencies in the market. In futures trading, statistical arbitrage involves trading pairs or groups of futures contracts that have historically shown a statistical relationship, with the expectation that any deviations from this relationship will eventually revert to the mean.

How Statistical Arbitrage Works

Stat arb traders use historical price data and statistical models to identify pairs of futures contracts that are expected to move together. When the price of one contract deviates from its expected relationship with the other, the trader takes a long position in the undervalued contract and a short position in the overvalued contract. The positions are then held until the prices converge, at which point the trader closes the positions for a profit.

Advantages of Statistical Arbitrage
  • Market Neutrality: Because statistical arbitrage involves taking both long and short positions, it is generally market-neutral, meaning it is less affected by overall market direction.
  • Diversification: Statistical arbitrage strategies can be applied across multiple asset classes, providing opportunities for diversification.
Disadvantages of Statistical Arbitrage
  • Requires Advanced Analytical Skills: Implementing a statistical arbitrage strategy requires a deep understanding of statistical methods and access to large datasets.
  • Execution Risk: The success of statistical arbitrage depends on the accurate execution of trades, and small delays or errors can lead to losses.
Best Practices for Statistical Arbitrage
  • Use Robust Statistical Models: The key to successful stat arb trading is the accuracy of the statistical models used to identify trading opportunities.
  • Continuously Monitor Positions: Market conditions can change rapidly, so it’s important to continuously monitor positions and adjust the strategy as needed.

8. What Low Margin Rates on Futures Means for Your Trading

Definition and Overview

Margin is the amount of money required to open and maintain a futures position. It acts as a good faith deposit to ensure that the trader can cover potential losses. Low margin rates mean that traders need to put up less capital to control a larger position in the futures market.

Impact of Low Margin Rates on Futures Trading

Low margin rates can have a significant impact on futures trading by increasing leverage. With lower margins, traders can control larger positions with a smaller initial investment, which can amplify both potential profits and potential losses.

Advantages of Low Margin Rates
  • Increased Leverage: Lower margin requirements allow traders to leverage their capital more effectively, potentially leading to higher returns on investment.
  • Greater Market Access: Lower margins make futures trading accessible to a wider range of traders, including those with smaller account balances.
Disadvantages of Low Margin Rates
  • Higher Risk: While low margin rates increase potential profits, they also increase the risk of substantial losses. Traders need to be careful not to over-leverage their positions.
  • Margin Calls: If the market moves against a highly leveraged position, traders may face margin calls, requiring them to deposit additional funds or liquidate positions at a loss.
Best Practices for Trading with Low Margin Rates
  • Manage Leverage Carefully: Traders should be cautious about over-leveraging their positions and should always have a clear risk management plan in place.
  • Use Stop-Loss Orders: To protect against large losses, traders should use stop-loss orders to automatically close positions if the market moves against them.

Futures trading offers a wide array of strategies and approaches, each with its own set of advantages and challenges. Whether you are engaging in swing trading, momentum trading, calendar spread trading, or any of the other strategies discussed, it is crucial to have a deep understanding of the market dynamics and to implement effective risk management practices. Additionally, the impact of low margin rates cannot be overstated, as they can significantly influence the risk and return profile of your trading activities.

By mastering these strategies and understanding the underlying concepts, futures traders can better navigate the complexities of the market and increase their chances of success. Each strategy requires a unique set of skills and knowledge, and the choice of strategy should align with the trader’s individual goals, risk tolerance, and market outlook.

For more information, click here.

Ready to start trading futures? Call us at 1(800)454-9572 (US) or (310)859-9572 (International), or email info@cannontrading.com to speak with one of our experienced, Series-3 licensed futures brokers and begin your futures trading journey with E-Futures.com today.

Disclaimer: Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involve substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Carefully consider if trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

Important: Trading commodity futures and options involves a substantial risk of loss. The recommendations contained in this article are opinions only and do not guarantee any profits. This article is for educational purposes. Past performances are not necessarily indicative of future results.

This article has been generated with the help of AI Technology and modified for accuracy and compliance.

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Weekly Newsletter: Trading Alerts Via text! , President’s Day Trading Schedule

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Cannon Futures Weekly Letter Issue # 1182

In this issue:
  • Important Notices – President’s Day Schedule
  • Trading Resource of the Week – Trade Alerts via Text/email
  • Hot Market of the Week – April Crude Oil
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week – Unleaded Gasoline Swing Trading System
  • Trading Levels for Next Week
  • Trading Reports for Next Week

 

Important Events Coming Up –

 

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Trading Resource of the Week : Real Time Email Alerts Directly to your Phone!

Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options. Regardless if you are a farmer, rancher or simply looking to trade grains and livestock futures, this guide will help you understand the ins and outs of trading and hedging using futures and options.
  • You will receive an email each time there is an entry or exit in a simple language along with the current price for that specific market.
  • A licensed series 3 broker at your fingertips
  • Email alerts available to US and Canada and Int’l clients
  • Alerts available for: Stock Indices, Grains, Metals, Rates, Currencies, Meats & Softs
  • Open an account* and receive the Trade Alerts free for 3 months ($357 value)
  • See an example of a recent trade alert for Gold Futures in the image below – the trade was still active as of Friday, Feb. 16th

 

Looking to sell gold on a bounce to 2023.0
Stop is 2062.0, target is 1981.0
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  • Hot Market of the Week – April Crude Oil
Hot market of the week is provided by QT Market Center, A Swiss army knife charting package that’s not just for Hedgers, Cooperatives and Farmers alike but also for Spread traders, Swing traders and shorter time frame application for intraday traders with a unique proprietary indicator that can be applied to your specific trading needs.
April Crude Oil
April crude oil activated upside PriceCounts last month but has continued to struggle with resistance around $78. If the chart can extend its rally with a sustained trade above $78, the first count would project a run to the 81.98 area.
PriceCounts – Not about where we’ve been , but where we might be going next!
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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved. It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com
Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.
  • Broker’s Trading System of the Week

With algorithmic trading systems becoming more prevalent in portfolio diversification, the following system has been selected as the broker’s choice for this month.
PRODUCT
SYSTEM TYPE
Swing
COST
USD 160 / monthly
Recommended Cannon Trading Starting Capital
$20,000
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The performance shown above is hypothetical in that the chart represents returns in a model account. The model account rises or falls by the average single contract profit and loss achieved by clients trading actual money pursuant to the listed system’s trading signals on the appropriate dates (client fills), or if no actual client profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by the system’s trading signals on that day in real time (real‐time) less slippage, or if no real time profit or loss available – by the hypothetical single contract profit and loss of trades generated by running the system logic backwards on back adjusted data. Please read full disclaimer HERE.
Would you like to receive daily support & resistance levels?
Yes
S
No
S

 

Daily Levels for February 19th/20th 2024

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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First Notice (FN), Last trading (LT) Days for the Week:
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* This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts here in contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgement in trading.