General:

This morning’s November ADP jobs report was well into negative territory falling to the lowest levels since 2020. The payrolls processing firm reported private companies cut 32,000 workers, with small businesses hit the hardest.

The report’s data were worse than anticipated as the Dow Jones consensus estimate from economists was to see an increase of 40,000 and a sharp step down from October, which saw an upwardly revised gain of 47,000 positions.

The ADP report is the last monthly jobs picture the Federal Reserve gets before it meets Dec. 9-10. Futures traders are now assigning a nearly 90% probability that the central bank will approve another quarter percentage point cut, according to the CME Group FedWatch tool:

This month’s release of the Labor Department’s monthly non-farm payrolls report has been moved from its traditional first Friday of the month to Tuesday, December 16, 2025, 7:30 A.M., Central Time. The report is widely considered to be one of the most important and influential measures of the U.S. economy.

More General:

Last Friday, a vital data center used by CME Group, overheated and suffered a more-than-ten-hour outage, shutting down trading at the world’s largest derivatives exchange. On an average day, it processes equity indexes futures and options trades tied to $1.5 trillion of underlying assets, and interest-rate-related trades with a notional value of $9.6 trillion.

While the blow was softened because it came late on Thanksgiving Day, this was the longest outage in recent CME history.

Energies:

In a credible sign that the world’s largest crude importer is nearing peak demand, China’s oil consumption next year – although still growing – will be surpassed by India’s for the first time. This was forecast by Singapore-based Trafigura Group, the world’s second-largest oil trader.

A key component to this, they explain, is that China’s main demand driver for crude – its consumption of road fuels – is weakening as adoption of electric cars and, increasingly, electric trucks has grown rapidly.

Metals:

New front month March silver futures traded to new all-time highs today, trading intraday to $59.65½ per ounce. The move includes a ~$8.00 per ounce move since Mon. Nov 24, a ±$40,000 per contract move for the main 5,000-oz. futures contract.

Driven by persistent concerns over a tightening global supply, March copper futures surged ~15 cents per pound (±2.8%) and traded up to ~4-month highs near $5.40 per pound today.