Cannon Trading — Market Close Commodities Wrap
Energy
Commodities ended the session mixed as markets continued to digest this week’s geopolitical swing and today’s macro tone. Energy stabilized, with WTI firmer and Brent still lagging as traders recalibrated risk after yesterday’s reports of a two‑week US–Iran ceasefire framework aimed at easing tensions and reopening Hormuz.
Products were steady after the recent volatility spike, though the market remains headline‑sensitive. Metals eased, with gold extending its controlled pullback as yields stayed elevated and the market continued to absorb the Fed’s data‑dependent stance from yesterday’s FOMC Minutes.
Copper
Copper held firm on balanced demand signals. Agriculture traded mixed, with soymeal showing relative strength while grains stayed range‑bound and softs continued to reflect tight supply dynamics. Cross‑asset flows leaned defensive, with a firmer dollar and ongoing fund positioning adjustments shaping late‑day action.
Tomorrow – CPI
Looking ahead to tomorrow, the focus shifts squarely to a heavy macro data slate. At 7:30am, markets will react to CPI, where expectations call for Core CPI m/m at 0.3% (prev 0.2%), headline CPI m/m at 1.0% (prev 0.3%), and CPI y/y at 3.4% (prev 2.4%) — a potentially market‑moving set that will drive yields, the dollar, and metals at the open.
At 9:00am, traders will watch Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (51.6 exp vs. 53.3 prior) and Inflation Expectations (3.8%), followed by Factory Orders at ‑0.3% expected vs. 0.1% prior. The day rounds out with the Federal Budget Balance at 1:00pm.
Energy
Energy markets will remain sensitive to any overnight developments around the ceasefire negotiations, which continue to be the dominant swing factor for crude spreads and volatility. Metals will trade off the CPI‑driven move in yields and the dollar, while ag markets will focus on export demand and updated weather models. With volatility still elevated across commodities, tomorrow’s session will hinge on whether CPI cools the dollar or forces another round of repricing across risk assets.
SPREAD Traders: Have you looked into the WTI Crude and brent Oil Spread??
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