Cannon Futures Weekly Letter

In Today’s Issue #1257

The Week Ahead – Fed Announcements, Blackout
Futures 101 – Trade and Risk Management
Trading Levels for Next Week
Trading Reports for Next Week

Important Notices: The Week Ahead

By John Thorpe, Senior Broker

fed

OPEC+ Sunday meeting, U.S. CPI, PPI and WASDE will be featured next week as earnings reports lighten up and we have entered into the Fed Blackout period.

Analysts expect the OPEC+ meeting Sunday to consider another round of production increases reflecting a shift in focus where demand is projected to accelerate. Bearish development for crude prices as the EIA reported a surprise increase on the U.S. crude stockpiles Thursday. WTI Crude prices are currently trading at the lower end of a $60.00 bbl -$65.00 bbl price range @$62.06 basis the October futures contract.

There was a sudden change in rate change probability this morning for the next Fed Meeting hosted by Chair Jerome Powell. Sep. 17 is the next rate decision. This graph is from the CME FedWatch tool, and it tracks the movement, real-time, of the fed fund futures contracts.

First time the market is considering .50 rate reduction for the September meeting.

Markets have already priced in this probability so it’s important to watch these numbers to see how the markets react today to these probabilities changing, I am talking about precious metals (inflation), Bonds (long term rates following short term to varying degrees), the energy complex (cheaper capital higher demand), Equities (cheaper capital), Currencies (capital flows out of US dollar denominated assets to higher interest rate debentures)

The on again off again nature of Tariff and Russia/Ukraine war talks has created golden opportunities for breakouts in some markets, rangebound trades in others.

Continued volatility to come as next week all markets will be reacting to whatever comes out of U.S. Govt leadership relating to conflicts cessation and trade deals, especially with China, India, Canada and Russia. Also, remember that Mexico’s extension will end October 29.

We’ll see you next week! Please enjoy a safe and memorable weekend.

Earnings Next Week:

Mon. Quiet
Tue. Synopsys, GameStop
Wed. Quiet
Thu. Adobe, Kroger
Fri. Quiet

FED SPEECHES: (all times CDT)

Mon. Fed Blackout
Tues. Period
Wed. 8 business days prior
Thu. To the Fed
Fri. Rate announcement

Economic Data week:

Mon. Consumer Inflation Expectations, Consumer Credit
Tue. NFIB Bus. Optimism Index, Redbook Y o Y, NFP Annual Revision (prior yr. -818 jobs)
Wed. Core PPI, EIA Crude Stocks, 17-week Bill auction
Thur. CORE CPI, EIA NAT GAS Storage, Fed Balance sheet,
Fri. Mich. Consumer sentiment, World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates.

Trade and Risk Management

Course Overview 14 minutes

“If you have an approach that makes money, then money management can make the difference between success and failure…I try to be conservative in my risk management. I want to make sure I’ll be around to play tomorrow. Risk control is essential.” – Monroe Trout, Trout Trading

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Trading Reports for Next Week

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.