Posted By: Ilan Levy-Mayer Vice President, Cannon Trading Futures Blog
1. Market Commentary
2. Futures Support and Resistance Levels – S&P, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, Dollar Index
3. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Gold, Euro, Crude Oil, T-Bonds
4. Commodities Support and Resistance Levels – Corn, Wheat, Beans, Silver
5. Futures Economic Reports for Thursday August 22, 2013
For 2013 I would like to wish all of you discipline and patience in your trading!
FOMC minutes came out and was actually better than advertised….This is the first time in a while where I felt we saw legitimate , free market action. The market had volatility, wide ranges and moved both ways on one of the better trading volumes in weeks.
Don’t get me wrong, I am not saying that every trading day should like this but we have witnessed over the past 3-4 years been a market guided by QE where traders and large institutions were just looking to buy the dips. I am sure that this will not be over in one day and it is a process but I have a feeling that this is a start of going back to “normal”, free market conditions. “normal”, free markets can and will have strong corrections and moves both up and down.
What does it mean to you the day-trader? Look back at intraday charts from 2007- 2009 and you will get an idea.
In between I am sharing a small piece from a booklet I wrote where I outline some of my day-trading theories and techniques.
My opinion is that there are 3 main types of trading days.
- Most common is two sided trading action with swings up and down – this type of trading day is most suitable for the main aspect of this model, which is taking trades based on the arrows.
- Strong trending day, mostly one directional – this type of trading day is the least common, many times this will happen on Mondays and maybe 3-5 times a month at most – this type of trading day is most suitable for using the color scheme I have on the charts. Green bars mean strong up trend, red bars mean strong down trend. If you determined that this is a trend day, then use pull backs to enter with the direction of trend and use the parabolic (little dashes) as you trailing stop.
- Slow and/ or choppy trading day – this type of trading day is best suited for taking small profits from the market by either using the main model or taking the diamonds as entry signal, and going for quick profits and tight stops.
Assessing the Type of Trading Day
- A good question is how can one assess what type of trading day we will have while the market is still trading? I am doing some work about it and will be happy to hear feedback via email, but here are some initial observations:
1) Was the overnight session a wide, two sided trading range? If the answer is yes, good chances are for a similar trading day during the primary session (primary session is when the cash/ stock market is open).
2) Mondays have the highest chance for trending days.
3) The behavior of the first hour of trading can also suggests the type of action for the rest of the day.
4) If the first 30 minutes have good volume, better chances for type 1 or type 2 trading days.
5) Low volume during the first 30 minutes can suggest a choppy (type 3 trading day).
6) Is there a big report today? monthly employment situation? FOMC statement? The major reports can create volatility in the market, so be aware of what reports are scheduled.
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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
|Contract Sept. 2013||SP500 (big & Mini)||Nasdaq100 (big & Mini)||Dow Jones (big & Mini)||Mini Russell||Dollar Index|
|Contract||Dec. Gold||Sept. Silver||Oct. Crude Oil||Sept. Bonds||Sept. Euro|
|Resistance 3||1398.0||2389.0||106.90||132 6/32||1.3502|
|Resistance 2||1388.5||2362.5||106.12||131 26/32||1.3465|
|Resistance 1||1378.3||2328.5||105.05||131 2/32||1.3409|
|Support 1||1358.6||2268.0||103.20||129 30/32||1.3316|
|Support 2||1349.1||2241.5||102.42||129 18/32||1.3279|
|Support 3||1338.9||2207.5||101.35||128 26/32||1.3223|
|Contract||Dec Corn||Dec. Wheat||Nov.Beans||Dec. SoyMeal||Dec. bean Oil|
|ThuAug 22||3:00am||EUR||French Flash Manufacturing PMI||50.4||49.7|
|EUR||French Flash Services PMI||49.3||48.6|
|3:30am||EUR||German Flash Manufacturing PMI||51.1||50.7|
|EUR||German Flash Services PMI||51.7||51.3|
|4:00am||EUR||Flash Manufacturing PMI||50.9||50.3|
|EUR||Flash Services PMI||50.2||49.8|
|9:00am||USD||Flash Manufacturing PMI||54.1||53.7|
|10:00am||USD||CB Leading Index m/m||0.5%||0.0%|
|10:30am||USD||Natural Gas Storage||65B|
|Day 1||ALL||Jackson Hole Symposium|
|3:15pm||USD||Treasury Sec Lew Speaks|
This is not a solicitation of any order to buy or sell, but a current market view provided by Cannon Trading Inc. Any statement of facts herein contained are derived from sources believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed as to accuracy, nor they purport to be complete. No responsibility is assumed with respect to any such statement or with respect to any expression of opinion herein contained. Readers are urged to exercise their own judgment in trading