NFP Tomorrow, September Dollar Index, Levels, Reports; Your 4 Crucial Need-To-Knows for Trading Futures on August 1st, 2025

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NFP Tomorrow

By Ilan Levy-Mayer, VP

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Prepare for Tomorrow’s First Friday: NFP Meets Month-Start Volume

Tomorrow marks the first Friday of the month, which means two things for futures and FX traders: the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and the natural volume uptick that often comes with month-beginning flows. Combining a high-impact economic release with typically heavier order flow sets the stage for elevated volatility—and potential opportunity.

Why NFP Drives Volatility

– The headline jobs number and the unemployment rate are among the most influential data points for Fed policy expectations.

– Surprises (even by a few thousand jobs) can trigger immediate swings in stock index futures, Treasury futures, FX and commodities.

– High-frequency and algorithmic traders often reload positions right before and after the print, amplifying short-term moves.

Month-Start Volume Patterns

– Corporate and institutional managers adjust exposures at month boundaries, generating extra order flow in equity and bond futures.

– Portfolio rebalancing, pension contributions, and cash withdrawals/additions create natural buy/sell pressure.

– Combining these flows with an NFP release can lead to deeper liquidity pockets—but also faster fills and bigger gaps.

Key Trading Considerations

1. Pre-print positioning

– Lighten large directional bets ahead of the 8:30 am Eastern release.

– Identify key levels (prior-month high/low, round numbers) to bracket potential moves.

2. Execution tools

– Use volume- or range-bar charts to filter noise during rapid price swings.

– Consider spread or straddle strategies to capture volatility without outright directional risk.

3. Risk management

– Widen initial stops to account for wider spreads and slippage.

– Trade smaller size or switch to highly liquid markets (e.g., E-mini S&P, 30-year bonds) if you’re concerned about whipsaw.

Action Plan for Tomorrow

– Monitor the Atlanta Fed’s jobs tracker and ADP release for hints of the NFP surprise factor.

– Set alerts at your chosen intraday levels and be ready to step aside if the market action outpaces your risk limits.

– After the print, watch volume‐profile clusters for early signs of trend continuation or exhaustion.

Tomorrow’s convergence of NFP data and month-start flows often produces some of the liveliest—and most tradable (riskier?)—sessions of the calendar. Prepare your playbook, mind your risk, and get ready to capture high-probability setups. Good luck!

 

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September Dollar Index

The September dollar index found stability earlier this month and now it has activated upside PriceCount objectives on the correction. The first count projects a possible run to the 100.58 area.

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The PriceCount study is a tool that can help to project the distance of a move in price. The counts are not intended to be an ‘exact’ science but rather offer a target area for the four objectives which are based off the first leg of a move with each subsequent count having a smaller percentage of being achieved.

It is normal for the chart to react by correcting or consolidating at an objective and then either resuming its move or reversing trend. Best utilized in conjunction with other technical tools, PriceCounts offer one more way to analyze charts and help to manage your positions and risk. Learn more at www.qtchartoftheday.com

Trading in futures, options, securities, derivatives or OTC products entails significant risks which must be understood prior to trading and may not be appropriate for all investors. Past performance of actual trades or strategies is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Daily Levels for Aug 1st, 2025

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Economic Reports

provided by: ForexFactory.com

All times are Eastern Time ( New York)

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Trading Futures, Options on Futures, and retail off-exchange foreign currency transactions involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.

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