What does the Redbook, Case Shiller Home Price Index, CB Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed Svc and Mfg. Index, Dallas Fed Svc. index and the announcement of the Swift / Kelce nuptials have in common?

I am sure you are glad I asked, “They have everything in common with each other.” The markets failed to move on any of the breaking economic releases and celebrity gossip columns today.

For the Equity index markets, this is typical behavior at the end of the dog days of summer.

Low Volume, low energy. It seems like last Friday’s rally was months ago. And then? There is NVDIA.

Earnings will be released tomorrow after the NYSE close for NVDIA. The star AI Chipmaker EPS estimate is 1.01 usd with Revenues @ 45.94B usd. This 4.34 trillion market cap. company’s Q2 release and future guidance will move the Equity indexes after Wednesday’s NYSE cash market close and perhaps deep into Thursday’s trading session.

Below are the last few high-profile quarters and how NQ futures reacted in the hours after

results hit:

• Feb 2024: NVDIA crushed expectations; Nasdaq futures jumped nearly ~2% overnight.
• May 2024: NVDIA beat and guided strong; Nasdaq/S&P 500 hit intraday records the next session (futures were bid after the print).
• Aug 2024: NVDIA beat, but guidance/GM underwhelmed lofty expectations; Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures were flat to slightly down (around –0.1% to –0.7%) that night/morning.
• Feb 2025: Heading into results, NVDIA was the market focus; stock-index futures led gains as the print eased some AI demand fears (positive lean for Nasdaq futures).

Pattern: when NVDA positively surprises NQ futures usually pop; when results meet but don’t wow—or guidance suggests doubt—NQ futures are flat/down. This is consistent with NVDIA’s outsized weight in the Nasdaq-100 and its role as the AI bellwether. The NFL is 2 weeks away.

• Earnings tomorrow NVDIA and Crowdstrike
• Fed Speaker: Wed.  9:45 am Barkin.
• Wed.  EIA Crude Stocks, 17-week Bill auction
• Trump Tarriff News, anything goes