At-a-Glance Levels

Current 2025 Government Shutdown:

As of October 21, 2025, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown (which began October 1) has suspended COT reports since the last release covering data up to September 23.

Weekly Released Commitment of Traders

Weekly released Commitment of Traders reports from the CFTC provide transparency into the positioning of various trader groups (such as speculators, hedgers, and commercial participants) in futures and options markets.

Risk of Delay/Absence

When these reports are delayed or absent—typically due to events like government shutdowns or external disruptions—it creates a data vacuum that can amplify uncertainty among traders.

Threat of Insight Void

This lack of insight into market sentiment and positioning often leads to increased speculative activity, herding behavior, and potential overreactions, ultimately contributing to higher volatility in futures markets.

Blackout

This blackout has left commodity futures traders “flying blind,” relying on alternative indicators like open interest changes, ETF flows, and futures curve shapes to infer speculative trends. The absence amplifies risks of speculative crowding—where positions build excessively without oversight—potentially leading to sharper price reversals when reports resume.

Volatility

Overall market volatility has shown mixed effects: implied volatility has ticked up slightly due to uncertainty, but in some areas like bonds, it has actually decreased from a lack of data. Agricultural futures have been hit harder, with disruptions to USDA data releases causing supply chain delays and emotional, rumor-driven trading that heightens volatility

 Instant Viewing/Download: Commitment of Traders Report – How to Use?