2026 – What You Need to Know

As we head into 2026 and find the 2025 markets exhausted from geopolitics, deglobalization, the screwworm, the AI metals hoard, it’s fair to drop the monocle and grab the binoculars to potentially look into 2026: not understand, but to discern where or if we are in the commodity cycle. We are talking about commodity cycles here rather than equity cycles of which a majority of our blog addresses daily.

Yes, the global commodity markets are in the midst of a multi-year cycle as of December 16, 2025, characterized by structural supply constraints, divergent sector performance, and upward momentum in key areas like precious and industrial metals. This aligns with the early-to-mid stages of what many analysts describe as a prolonged bull phase or “Supercycle,” driven by energy transition demands, underinvestment in production over the past decade in livestock and mining, geopolitical tensions, and infrastructure needs.

However, the cycle is not uniform—energy and agriculture face downward pressure from surpluses and weak growth, creating a “great divergence” across commodities. We are firmly in a commodity cycle, but it’s selective: Bullish for transition metals and precious (e.g., copper +5–12% net into 2026; gold/silver ongoing highs) due to irreversible demand trends, while energy and ag face headwinds. Overall prices remain 23% above 2019 levels despite projected 2025 declines.

This environment favors active management and diversification, with commodities providing inflation hedging amid persistent >3% U.S. CPI readings. This divergence reflects structural bulls in “green” commodities (e.g., copper, uranium, silver) versus cyclical bears in oversupplied areas like oil.

             The question becomes “Will these trends continue into 2026?”

Analysts from BNY, Forbes, and Reuters note this cycle could last 7–15+ years, potentially extending into the 2030s due to policy shifts and deglobalization. The World Bank forecasts overall commodity prices dropping 7% in both 2025 and 2026 (fourth consecutive decline), hitting a six-year low in 2026, due to weak global growth, oil surpluses (up 65% vs. 2020 peaks), and policy uncertainty. Energy prices are expected to fall 12% in 2025 and 10% in 2026.

 As always, be prepared for sharp corrections and rebounds in these markets by utilizing protective option strategies and stops in tandem.

But what of the AI Industrial and precious metals hoard? Upside risks include sharper‑than‑expected rate cuts, stronger emerging‑market growth and faster energy‑transition spending, all of which would favor both industrial and precious metals. Downside risks are a deeper global slowdown, policy shocks (tariffs, export bans), or rapid supply additions in specific metals, any of which could cap or reverse the expected price gains.